基于多侦察资源的电子侦察作战效能评估模型

现代战争战场环境越来越复杂,准确发现目标的难度越来越大,靠单侦察设备独立完成侦察任务已难以满足作战需要。通过建立多侦察资源的电子对抗侦察效能评估模型,对来自同一作战平台的不同侦察设备和来自不同平台的侦察设备的数据进行融合,最大限度地发挥各侦察设备的作战效能,为决策者提供作战使用依据。     

Effects of lethality in naval combat models

In the context of both discrete time salvo models and continuous time Lanchester models we examine the effect on naval combat of lethality: that is, the relative balance between the offensive and defensive attributes of the units involved. We define three distinct levels of lethality and describe the distinguishing features of combat for each level. We discuss the implications of these characteristics for naval decision‐makers; in particular, we show that the usefulness of the intuitive concept “more is better” varies greatly depending on the lethality level. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Weapon effectiveness and the shapes of damage functions

This paper provides a review of methods of assessing a fragmentation weapon's effectiveness against a point target or an area target with keeping the focus on the necessity of using the Carleton damage function with the correct shape factor.First,cookie-cutter damage functions are redefined to preserve the shape factor of and to have the same lethal area as the corresponding Carleton damage function.Then,closed-form solutions of the effectiveness methods are obtained by using those cookie-cutter damage functions and the Carleton damage function.Finally,the closed-form solutions are applied to calculate the probability of damaging a point target and the expected fractional damage to an area target for several attack scenarios by using cookie-cutter damage functions and the Carleton damage functions with different shape factors.The comparison of the calculation results shows that using cookie-cutter damage functions or the Carleton damage function with a wrong shape factor results in quite signifi-cant differences from using the original Carleton damage function with a correct shape factor when weapon's delivery error deviations are less than or comparable to the lengths of the lethal area and the aim point is far from a target.The effectiveness methods improved in this paper will be useful for mission planning utilizing the precision-guided munitions in circumstances where the collateral damage should be reduced.     

鱼雷作战效能评估方法分析

高作战效能的鱼雷武器装备系统在现代高技术战争中起着决定性作用.给出了鱼雷作战效能定义,重点对比几种典型新颖的鱼雷武器系统作战效能分析方法,并讨论了各自的特点和适用场合.最后提出了当前鱼雷武器作战效能评估的现存问题,并对其研究领域的发展方向作了展望.     

基于复杂网络的武器装备体系贡献度评估分析方法

根据结构决定功能的系统论观点,基于复杂网络理论对武器装备作战体系网络的拓扑结构进行了分析,构建了基于不确定性自信息量的武器装备作战体系作战效能分析模型,提出了计算武器装备体系贡献度的方法,并通过算例验证,探讨了网络结构演化及度量参数改变对武器装备体系贡献度的影响,为武器装备体系贡献度评估分析提供了技术支撑。     

基于攻防下的无人侦察机突防效能评估

高技术局部战争中,无人侦察机面临复杂、严峻的空防体系的考验,合理、有效地评估无人侦察机突防能力是提高其作战效能的重要保证。针对多样化的无人侦察机突防环境,综合考虑攻击方的无人机本身性能指标,电子干扰以及防御方的雷达探测能力和拦截武器性能,建立了攻防条件下无人侦察机突防效能评价指标体系。通过对指标的公度化处理,统一的量化指标,并利用灰色层次评估法,全面地评估无人侦察机的突防效能,提高了评估的科学、合理性,并为改善无人侦察机性能提供了参考。     

基于数据场的登陆作战体系兵力编组效能分析

兵力编组效能直接影响登陆作战体系的作战能力。在分析梯队式和群队式兵力编组模式下登陆作战体系网络模型的基础上,利用数据场理论研究登陆作战体系的拓扑势场,描述梯队或群队间由支援、协同产生的协同作战能力,建立基于数据场的登陆作战体系兵力编组效能模型,并进行仿真分析。得到了一种定量分析兵力编组作战效能的方法。     

COBP方法及其在C4ISR系统评价中的作用

COBP（NATO Code of Best Practice for C2 Assessment）是北大西洋公约组织近期用来指导C4ISR系统效能评估的最新理论成果,本文首先对其主要部分进行了总结,详细阐述了它的评估过程,接下来给出了外军应用COBP方法进行C4ISR系统评估的一个应用实例,最后比较了COBP方法与其他系统效能评估框架的异同,总结指出COBP方法对我军指挥自动化系统评估的借鉴意义。     

When Do Imposed Economic Sanctions Work? A Critical Review of the Sanctions Effectiveness Literature

ABSTRACT

There is growing policy consensus in Washington and other Western capitals that economic sanctions are powerful tools to cope with major foreign policy crises. Are sanctions, particularly targeted sanctions, really the potent instruments optimists suggest? Under what circumstances do punitive economic measures induce policy change in sanctioned countries? To probe these queries, in this article I outline the conditions that have been identified as more likely to lead to successful sanctions outcomes in the literature. I also discuss four major shortcomings of existing scholarship. First, the sender-biased interpretation of sanctions effectiveness renders the treatment of the ‘ineffective’ cases with negative outcomes the same as those cases that induce no discernable change in target behavior. Second, the prevalent use of static data from existing sanctions databases reduces the ability of researchers to study various time-specific factors affecting the probability of sanctions success. Third, the dominant state-centric bargaining model in the literature offers limited insight into contemporary coercive measures directed at non-state actors. Fourth, the study of sanctions in isolation of other instruments that frequently accompany them, such as incentives and diplomatic pressure, leads to a partial understanding of the specific role sanctions play in shaping the outcome of key foreign policy initiatives.     

排队论在导弹防御体系射击效能中的应用

针对当前空袭手段多样化、综合化和一体化的特点,运用排队论方法,设计了一种基于排队论的射击效能评估模型。该模型综合考虑了各种因素对舰空导弹射击效能的影响,当编队的配置(如防御层数、通道数量)有所变化时,依然可以灵活运用上述模型对编队射击效能做出准确评估。