我国数据驱动管理决策研究现状分析

数据驱动管理决策研究是大数据时代管理工程领域研究的重要方向。本文提出了基于社会网络分析方法的总体思路,采集、清洗和处理了我国数据驱动管理决策研究文献数据,建立了文献数据的共词矩阵,并进行了共词分析,构建了我国数据驱动管理决策研究的社群图,从点度中心度、接近中心度和中间中心度等方面研究了我国数据驱动管理决策研究现状,提出了当前研究热点和研究对象。此外,我们从大数据时代管理决策特点规律和作用机理揭示、数据驱动管理决策体系框架构建和要素分析、管理决策数据驱动技术工具和模型构建等方面总结了未来研究重点和趋势。研究结论对于我国开展数据驱动的管理决策理论研究和实践应用能够提供参考借鉴。     

Dynamic pricing in a trade-in program with replacement and new customers

Trade-in programs have been widely adopted to enhance repeat purchase from replacement customers. Considering that a market consists of replacement and new segments, we study the joint and dynamic decisions on the selling price of new product (hereafter, “selling price”) and the trade-in price involved in the program. By adopting a vertical product differentiation choice model, we investigate two scenarios in this paper. In the base model, the manufacturer has sufficiently large production capacity to fulfill the customer demand. We characterize the structural properties of the joint pricing decisions and compare them with the optimal pricing policy under regular selling. We further propose a semi-dynamic trade-in program, under which the new product is sold at a fixed price and the trade-in price can be adjusted dynamically. Numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the performance of the dynamic and semi-dynamic trade-in programs. In an extended model, we consider the scenario in which the manufacturer stocks a batch of new products in the beginning of the selling horizon and the inventory cannot be replenished. Following a revenue management framework, we characterize the structural properties with respect to time period and inventory level of new products.     

Callable products with dependent demands

Capacity providers such as airlines often sell the same capacity to different market segments at different prices to improve their expected revenues. The absence of a secondary market, due to the nontransferability of airline tickets, gives rise to an opportunity for airlines to broker capacity between consumers with different willingness to pay. One way to broker capacity is by the introduction of callable products. The idea is similar to callable bonds where the issuer has the right, but not the obligation, to buy back the bonds at a certain price by a certain date. The idea of callable products was introduced before under the assumption that the fare-class demands are all independent. The independent assumption becomes untenable when there is significant demand recovery (respectively, demand cannibalization) when lower fares are closed (respectively, opened). In this case, consumer choice behavior should be modeled explicitly to make meaningful decisions. In this paper, we consider a general consumer choice model and develop the optimal strategy for callable products. Our numerical study illustrates how callable products are win-win-win, for the capacity provider and for both high and low fare consumers. Our studies also identify conditions for callable products to result in significant improvements in expected revenues.     

Dynamic pricing and replenishment: Optimality,bounds, and asymptotics

In many applications, managers face the problem of replenishing and selling products during a finite time horizon. We investigate the problem of making dynamic and joint decisions on product replenishment and selling in order to improve profit. We consider a backlog scenario in which penalty cost (resulting from fulfillment delay) and accommodation cost (resulting from shortage at the end of the selling horizon) are incurred. Based on continuous‐time and discrete‐state dynamic programming, we study the optimal joint decisions and characterize their structural properties. We establish an upper bound for the optimal expected profit and develop a fluid policy by resorting to the deterministic version of the problem (ie, the fluid problem). The fluid policy is shown to be asymptotically optimal for the original stochastic problem when the problem size is sufficiently large. The static nature of the fluid policy and its lack of flexibility in matching supply with demand motivate us to develop a “target‐inventory” heuristic, which is shown, numerically, to be a significant improvement over the fluid policy. Scenarios with discrete feasible sets and lost‐sales are also discussed in this article.     

通用装备“四合四统”建设模式下维修管理组织结构设计研究

针对“四合四统”建设模式对通用装备维修管理提出的要求,分析了装备维修管理组织结构的基本类型。在此基础上,依据需求,对装备维修管理组织结构进行设计,以机步师为例,构建了“四合四统”模式下装备维修管理组织结构体系,为通用装备维修管理适应新装备形成作战保障能力建设提供了理论参考。     

装备备件管理技术综述

备件管理水平的高低直接影响着装备保障能力的发挥和使用保障费用的维持,备件管理现已成为世界范围内的研究热点。通过对国内外有关备件管理文献的分析,总结了备件管理在备件分类方法、需求预测与确定、库存控制与优化3个方面的研究现状。分析结果表明：备件管理将向多因素综合考虑的备件分类方法,基于备件需求不确定性的预测技术以及基于计算机辅助技术、物流和供应链管理等方向发展。     

部队装备管理军用标准体系构想

分析了部队装备管理军用标准体系研究3方面的需求,提出了部队装备管理军用标准体系研究的任务和5个基本原则,对部队装备管理军用标准体系总体结构和基础标准、程序标准、技术标准、评价标准等进行了初步构想。     

战士情绪情感对部队管理工作的影响探析

新形势下引发的战士情绪、情感等心理活动及现实思想问题越来越明显,干部要善于引导战士分化情绪和情感,强化积极面,抑制消极面。一方面基层干部自身要牢固树立＂以兵为本＂的理念;另一方面要教会战士自我调解情绪情感的方法。此外,有条件的单位可建立战士心理健康档案和预防与干预机制。     

关于在公安现役部队推行全面预算管理的几点思考

对现阶段公安现役部队全面预算管理现状和面临的问题进行了分析,从确定部队战略目标,党委重视和全员参与,构建全面预算管理组织结构及制度体系,全面预算的编制、控制、调整及考评等几个方面提出了有效实施全面预算管理的思路和具体措施。     

政府重塑理论在消防管理中的应用

利用政府重塑理论分析了我国消防管理模式的现状,指出近几年我国消防管理体制改革的思路和方向正是政府重塑理论所倡导的强调效率、注重“掌舵”而不是“划桨”的管理模式。针对我国现行消防管理体制存在的政府职能发挥不足、消防安全责任不明确、体制不顺的问题,结合我国国情和消防工作特点,借鉴政府重塑理论的思想精髓,提出了构建一个既“掌舵”又“划桨”的、充满竞争活力的、受效果驱动的、“企业行政”式的消防管理模式的改革思路。