Partial equilibrium in risk‐based production decisions

Characteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a “generic” production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于Multi-Agent技术的大型航天研发项目风险分析方法

大型航天研发项目对于社会经济发展和国防安全有着重要影响,是国家重大工程中一类较为特殊的项目,而风险分析是大型航天研发项目按计划、高质量、低成本完成的重要保障。通过分析大型航天研发项目的特点、风险因素以及管理过程,结合Multi-Agent以及分布式项目管理的理论和技术,研究和提出了一种新的基于Multi-Agent技术的大型航天研发项目风险分析方法,在此基础上针对具体项目进行了实验仿真,获取了项目的风险水平和关键风险因素,为航天研发项目风险管理与控制提供决策支持。     

浅谈成人高校后勤管理改革

当前成人高校的后勤存在的问题,决定必须对其进行改革,改革应遵循解放思想、实事求是的原则;因地、因校制宜的原则;坚持"三服务,两育人"的原则;维护学校稳定原则;集中统一、整体发展等原则.改革的根本途径在于后勤的社会化,其实质就是建立现代后勤制度.     

美军装备采办合同管理及其标准化

在我军武器装备建设逐渐"以计划为主要管理方式和手段"向"以合同为主要管理方式和手段"转变的背景下,装备采购合同管理的研究日趋深入。而装备采购合同"行政合同"的性质及合同标的物复杂性的特点,进一步凸显了标准化在保证装备采购合同规范性、降低不确定性、减少交易成本和提高工作效率中的重要作用。文章在对美军装备采办合同管理标准化特点与经验详细分析和提炼的基础上,对比我军装备采购合同管理体制及标准化现状,有针对性的提出了装备采购合同管理标准化建议,梳理了标准化重点,并为日后时机成熟时制定适用于装备采购合同管理的相关标准或指南,奠定了一定的研究基础。     

Comprehensive approaches,diverse coherences: the different levels of policy coherence in the Dutch 3D approach in Afghanistan

Since 2000, international organisations such as the UN, NATO and the EU, but also countries, have started to apply what has been called the comprehensive approach to crisis management. This article unpacks this comprehensive approach implemented by the Dutch in Uruzgan province, Afghanistan. It first borrows and expands a conceptual framework developed by De Coning and Friis. Subsequently, it maps the different sorts of coherence in the mission by applying the framework. It shows how in practice there was not one single comprehensive approach, but many different forms of interaction between a number of organisational units. Each interaction had its own distinct issues and its own level of coherence. The level of coherence differed depending on the level at which the interaction took place – strategic at headquarters level versus operational at field level – and at what point in the mission it happened – in most cases it moved towards more cohesion.     

海战场电磁态势感知模型

复杂电磁环境对海上作战和频谱管控提出了更高的要求,准确感知战场电磁态势是指挥控制、频谱管控的重要基础,但目前尚没有系统生成海战场电磁态势的方法.在分析传统态势感知模型的基础上,定义了战场电磁态势的相关概念,提出了海战场电磁态势感知的基本模型,深入分析了电磁环境感知、电磁环境构建、电磁态势理解、电磁态势展现等模型中的重要环节,并提出了初步技术解决途径,为进一步分析和评估海战场电磁态势提供了基础.     

消防安全户籍化监管问题与对策研究

介绍消防安全“户籍化”的定义,指出“户籍化”管理在消防安全工作中的具体运用和存在的问题,从长效机制、典型示范、服务效能等方面,就如何全面推进消防安全“户籍化”管理提出对策和建议.     

西点军校管理文化特点及启示

西点军校管理文化,是西点在200多年的发展过程中形成的行为方式、管理制度、价值标准和道德规范。西点军校管理文化的特点集中体现在：造就国家精英的目标文化、落后必遭淘汰的竞争文化、没有任何借口的执行文化、英雄就在身边的激励文化、决不容忍欺骗的诚信文化、团结就是力量的团队文化等方面。借鉴西点管理文化,我军院校应注重素质培养、造就一流人才,突出思想教育、提升职业品格,健全体制机制、强化管理效果,不断改善我军院校管理,真正担负起培养高素质军事人才的重任。     

论有效提高体育课堂教学质量的途径

体育教师课堂组织管理能力的高低直接决定着课堂教学的效果与质量,最大限度地调动学生课堂学习的自主性,有效地维持学生的适宜行为,保持良好的课堂秩序,科学地组织教学内容,创造良好的教学环境,不断提高教师的自身素质,才能促进教学改革,达到提高教学质量的效果和目的。     

BANNING BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS

The Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) underpins the international regime to control biological weapons. The strength of the treaty however relies on national implementation. The first step for many states party to the Convention is drafting appropriate national laws and regulations. So far, 32 countries in Africa are signatory to the BTWC. More recently, in 2004, the United Nations Security Council adopted resolution 1540, which requires all UN Member States to put in place legislation to prevent the illicit trafficking of material that could be used to develop weapons of mass destruction. The need for such wide-ranging legislation is recognised African countries but its creation and implementation pose specific challenges.