要素分析法在边防情报识别中的应用

边防情报识别是边防情报工作的一项重要内容,要素分析法是当前公安边防情报识别的基本方法之一。结合公安边防情报的特殊性对要素分析法进行了探讨,旨在更好的运用要素分析法,为公安边防情报的识别提供理论参考,以促进公安边防情报识别工作的进一步发展。     

基于时间序列分析的火灾发生规律研究

在时间序列分析建模思想的基础上,基于全国2007年24小时火灾起数建立时间序列模型,对火灾发生趋势进行分析,并从预防控制时间上提出相应的防控建议。     

隧道火灾机械通风临界风速研究

由于隧道的半封闭性,空间有限,当长度很长时空气流通不畅,一旦发生火灾,烟气就会迅速填充隧道,而且CO等危险气体也会随烟气向隧道扩散,这对隧道内车辆和人员造成极大的危险。因此,需要保证隧道内空气流通状态的良好以及发生火灾时对烟气的良好控制。模拟了隧道口附近发生一定功率火灾的情况下,控制烟气层流动所需要的临界风速。     

导线绝缘层火灾痕迹研究

以铜芯聚氯乙烯绝缘软导线作为实验材料,使用火灾痕迹物证综合实验台和箱式电阻炉等模拟火场条件,分别制备出导线绝缘层在过负荷、火烧和短路三种状态下的炭化痕迹样品,宏观观察结果表明这三种情况下导线绝缘层破坏显示出不同的特征。将导线绝缘层过负荷、火烧和短路三种痕迹样品碳化物分别制成碳管并测其导电性能,发现它们的导电性能存在规律性,短路形成的绝缘层碳化物导电性优于过负荷、火烧形成的碳化物导电性,而对于火烧形成碳化物,在一定温度范围内随着温度升高导电性有增强的规律。     

论岛屿应急救援体系的构建

为全面提高海南省岛屿应急救援能力,有效防范和应对灾害事故和突发事件,保护人民生命财产安全,提出建立岛屿应急救援体系的思路,构建岛屿应急救援专业队伍和多种形式消防队伍有效联动的综合性应急救援力量体系。     

玉树地震灾区恢复重建消防问题思考

做好玉树灾区重建过程中消防工作的意义重大,对重建中面临的消防问题进行分析,提出为保证灾区重建消防安全应注意以下问题：构建灾区防火监督网络、改善消防安全环境、确保消防专业规划的编制和实施、加强消防监督管理、做好灭火救援和抢险救灾准备、强化便民服务措施等。     

当前火灾自动报警系统运行中存在问题及对策

结合多年工作实践,对火灾自动报警系统设计、施工与运行中存在的诸多问题进行了探讨,分析了存在问题的原因,并从设计、产品选用、施工管理、消防验收、日常管理、提高认识程度、加强监督检查几个方面提出了相应的解决办法和建议。     

我军预算执行控制的现状分析及对策

目前我军预算执行控制存在主体缺位、目标偏移、机制不顺、责任不明、力度不强等问题,其原因来自权力因素、机制因素、制度因素、程序因素。加强预算执行控制的对策包括：规范预算执行制度、建立军队预算支出绩效评价体系、设计适用现代化监控的技术手段。     

The effects of model parameter deviations on the variance of a linearly filtered time series

We consider a general linear filtering operation on an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series. The variance of the filter output, which is an important quantity in many applications, is not known with certainty because it depends on the true ARMA parameters. We derive an expression for the sensitivity (i.e., the partial derivative) of the output variance with respect to deviations in the model parameters. The results provide insight into the robustness of many common statistical methods that are based on linear filtering and also yield approximate confidence intervals for the output variance. We discuss applications to time series forecasting, statistical process control, and automatic feedback control of industrial processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Robustness of efficient server assignment policies to service time distributions in finite‐buffered lines

We study the assignment of flexible servers to stations in tandem lines with service times that are not necessarily exponentially distributed. Our goal is to achieve optimal or near‐optimal throughput. For systems with infinite buffers, it is already known that the effective assignment of flexible servers is robust to the service time distributions. We provide analytical results for small systems and numerical results for larger systems that support the same conclusion for tandem lines with finite buffers. In the process, we propose server assignment heuristics that perform well for systems with different service time distributions. Our research suggests that policies known to be optimal or near‐optimal for Markovian systems are also likely to be effective when used to assign servers to tasks in non‐Markovian systems. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010