用非概率理论分析混合不确定性结构的可靠性

针对不确定性结构可靠性分析中的输入变量分布参数具有不确定性和输入变量为区间模型的混合不确定性结构展开研究。考虑到可用信息最少的情况,将分布参数的不确定性描述为区间模型。通过等概率转换方法将随机变量与其分布参数进行分离,使问题转化为随机与区间变量混合的可靠性问题,建立了混合不确定性问题的可靠性分析模型。基于非概率可靠性理论,建立混合不确定结构分析模型的二级极限状态函数并结合Kriging代理模型建立了高效的求解方法。将所建立的混合不确定模型应用于飞行器结构的不确定性分析中,验证了所建模型的合理性和所提方法的高效性和准确性。     

作战指数与火力分配统一处理的方法和意义—兼论数理战术学

本文将作战指数与火力分配统一放到战场环境中考虑,提出了作战指数与火力分配的合理性条件和合理交战模式、规范交战模式等概念,证明了规范交战模式是合理的,以及在规范交战模式中作战指数与特征向量的关系,文章最后表达了对建立数理战术学的迫切期望。     

基于FPGA的某发控仪模拟器设计

针对某导弹发控仪模拟器集成度低,难以提高性能的问题,提出了基于FPGA的微型化设计方法,给出了具体的硬件电路和软件设计流程图,对典型电路进行了分析。仿真结果表明实现了原电路的功能,提高了集成度,实现了系统的功能优化。该设计为同类模拟器的研制提供了有效的方法和途径。     

Bivariate models from univariate life distributions: A characterization cum modeling approach

Bivariate life distribution models are of importance for studying interdependent components. We present a generic approach by introducing a new concept of characterized model in stead of a characterized distribution. It strikes a balance between characterization and modeling approaches to eliminate their individual limitations and incorporate their respective strengths. The proposed model, being a characterized one, admits many important properties irrespective of the choice of marginal distributions. The retention of univariate IFR, DFR, IFRA, DFRA, NBU, and NWU class properties in the bivariate setup has been ensured along with some results on series combinations and convolution. No other models, available in the literature, can ensure simultaneous retention of these fundamental and extremely important class properties. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Exact likelihood inference for the exponential distribution under generalized Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censoring

Chen and Bhattacharyya [Exact confidence bounds for an exponential parameter under hybrid censoring, Commun Statist Theory Methods 17 (1988), 1857–1870] considered a hybrid censoring scheme and obtained the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean of an exponential distribution along with an exact lower confidence bound. Childs et al. [Exact likelihood inference based on Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censored samples from the exponential distribution, Ann Inst Statist Math 55 (2003), 319–330] recently derived an alternative simpler expression for the distribution of the MLE. These authors also proposed a new hybrid censoring scheme and derived similar results for the exponential model. In this paper, we propose two generalized hybrid censoring schemes which have some advantages over the hybrid censoring schemes already discussed in the literature. We then derive the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator as well as exact confidence intervals for the mean of the exponential distribution under these generalized hybrid censoring schemes. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

攻防对抗仿真中高炮火力单元射击指挥模型

在分析高炮火力单元射击指挥过程的基础上,着重对高炮火力单元射击指挥仿真中的目标搜索模型与杀伤效果评估模型进行了深入探讨和构建。在实现高炮杀伤效果评估方面,运用蒙特卡罗方法构建了符合实际、满足仿真粒度要求的高炮着发射与空炸射击毁伤概率计算模型。实际应用表明:模型满足仿真可信度和实时性要求,对开展地面防空作战仿真具有一定的借鉴意义。     

R-C系统中由表面散射引起的视场内杂散光分布

推导了R-C系统焦平面上由主镜和次镜表面散射引起的视场内杂散光分布的近似解析表达式.针对典型R-C系统的视场内杂散光分布,由近似表达式得到的计算结果与利用商业光学仿真软件得到的模拟结果具有较好的一致性,说明了近似表达式的正确性.与焦平面上无像差衍射光分布相比较,可以方便地分析强光入射时R-C系统焦平面上不同区域的饱和机制.研究结果表明,对于典型的R-C系统,探测器表面上以几何像点为中心,半径为2.5mm的范围内,衍射光是引起探测器饱和的主要因素;在此范围外,表面散射造成探测器的饱和.该结果为进一步研究强光饱和实验,解释有关现象提供理论分析基础.     

A spatial rank‐based multivariate EWMA control chart

Nonparametric control charts are useful in statistical process control when there is a lack of or limited knowledge about the underlying process distribution, especially when the process measurement is multivariate. This article develops a new multivariate self‐starting methodology for monitoring location parameters. It is based on adapting the multivariate spatial rank to on‐line sequential monitoring. The weighted version of the rank‐based test is used to formulate the charting statistic by incorporating the exponentially weighted moving average control scheme. It is robust to non‐normally distributed data, easy to construct, fast to compute and also very efficient in detecting multivariate process shifts, especially small or moderate shifts which occur when the process distribution is heavy‐tailed or skewed. As it avoids the need for a lengthy data‐gathering step before charting and it does not require knowledge of the underlying distribution, the proposed control chart is particularly useful in start‐up or short‐run situations. A real‐data example from white wine production processes shows that it performs quite well. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 59: 91–110, 2012     

从火灾复核案件谈火灾事故调查能力的提高

开展火灾事故调查工作,是公安消防机构的一项重要任务。要加强火灾事故调查工作,提高火灾事故调查人员的能力非常重要。从几起火灾复核案件中暴露出的问题入手,提出了提高火灾事故调查能力的途径和措施。     

恒压变频控制设备在消防水灭火系统中的应用

分析了传统消防水灭火系统存在易锈死难改造等问题,介绍了恒压变频供水系统的基本工作原理和设计思路,论证了恒压变频供水系统在消防水灭火系统中应用的可行性,研究了将恒压变频控制设备应用到消防水灭火系统中应注意的几个问题,为改进消防水灭火系统提供了又一方法。