装备保障资源确定技术研究与需求分析系统开发

维修资源是实施装备维修工作的物质基础和重要保证,无论是平时训练还是战时抢修,维修资源都占据着十分重要的地位,不仅影响着装备的寿命周期费用(Life Cycle Costs,LCC),还直接影响着装备的战备完好率以及部队战斗力的保持和恢复.应用更加科学高效的方法确定保障资源,是维修决策面临的重要问题之一.据此,着眼于部队装备维修保障现状需求,将维修任务分配与保障资源需求紧密结合,提出了保障资源确定分析流程,并对分析过程中的关键技术进行了相应的研究,建立了典型的维修决策模型,优化了保障资源配置.最后开发了计算机辅助决策分析系统,为维修资源的优化配置起到了很好的辅助决策作用.     

基于RBF网络的坦克火控系统效能评价仿真

利用层次分析法提出了坦克火控系统效能评价指标体系,简要介绍了指标选取的理由。然后,采用提取原始值法和Delphi法取得了几组训练样本,并对所构造的三层RBF神经网络进行仿真训练,当训练精度达到要求后,再运用RBF神经网络对某型坦克火控系统效能进行了仿真评估。结果表明,在选定指标的基础上,用训练好的RBF神经网络评估坦克火控系统效能是合理的,减少了评估中的人为因素,使评估的结果更为可信。研究结果可为在现有武器装备的基础上开发和研制新型坦克火控系统提供理论参考。     

基于传感器网络数据融合的目标定位方法

针对传感器网络测试系统在战场及终点效应中的应用,探讨了基于多种传感器网络的目标定位方法,提出了采用最优加权融合估计算法将各种传感器的定位信息进行融合处理,并将融合结果与各种传感器计算结果进行比较,结果证明了经融合处理可以大大提高定位精度.     

联合火力打击弹药需求计算动态模型研究

弹药是火力打击和火力毁伤的基础.传统的火力毁伤弹药需求计算主要有两种思路,一种是不考虑对抗,单纯基于目标的幅员和弹药的毁伤概率静态计算弹药的需求,一种是考虑对抗,运用兰切斯特方程计算弹药的消耗,这样求得的预测结果与实际需求均有较大的差距.研究发现,将基于目标打击的弹药需求和在对抗条件下武器损耗因素结合起来考虑,可以有机地将两种弹药消耗的计算思路融合在一起,建立新的数学模型,所得结果反映了弹药实际需求与外部因素的内在关系,与实际作战更加相符,对战时的弹药供应决策具有重要意义.     

坦克火力运用决策模型

坦克火力运用是作战指挥决策的一项主要内容。制定正确的决策,可以更加有效的发挥坦克的强大火力。运用数学方法,对有预案情况下的坦克火力运用决策做了研究,提出一组合理的决策准则,建立了决策模型,借助于该模型,可选择坦克部(分)队火力运用的最优方案。     

Selecting T for a periodic review inventory model with staggered deliveries

Consider a single‐item, periodic review, infinite‐horizon, undiscounted, inventory model with stochastic demands, proportional holding and shortage costs, and full backlogging. Orders can arrive in every period, and the cost of receiving them is negligible (as in a JIT setting). Every T periods, one audits the current stock level and decides on deliveries for the next T periods, thus incurring a fixed audit cost and—when one schedules deliveries—a fixed order cost. The problem is to find a review period T and an ordering policy that satisfy the average cost criterion. The current article extends an earlier treatment of this problem, which assumed that the fixed order cost is automatically incurred once every T periods. We characterize an optimal ordering policy when T is fixed, prove that an optimal review period T** exists, and develop a global search algorithm for its computation. We also study the behavior of four approximations to T** based on the assumption that the fixed order cost is incurred during every cycle. Analytic results from a companion article (where μ/σ is large) and extensive computational experiments with normal and gamma demand test problems suggest these approximations and associated heuristic policies perform well when μ/σ ≥ 2. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 329–352, 2000     

On optimality of one‐bug‐look‐ahead policies for a software testing model

The optimality of the One‐Bug‐Look‐Ahead (OLA) software release policy proposed by Morali and Soyer ( 15 ) is re‐examined in this paper. A counterexample is constructed to show that OLA is not optimal in general. The optimal stopping approach is then called upon to prove that OLA possesses weaker sense of optimality under conditional monotonicity and the strong sense of optimality holds under a more restrictive sample‐wise monotonicity condition. The NTDS data are analyzed for illustration, and OLA is shown to be robust with respect to model parameters. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

Optimal burn‐in procedure for periodically inspected systems

Burn‐in is a widely used method to improve the quality of products or systems after they have been produced. In this paper, we study burn‐in procedure for a system that is maintained under periodic inspection and perfect repair policy. Assuming that the underlying lifetime distribution of a system has an initially decreasing and/or eventually increasing failure rate function, we derive upper and lower bounds for the optimal burn‐in time, which maximizes the system availability. Furthermore, adopting an age replacement policy, we derive upper and lower bounds for the optimal age parameter of the replacement policy for each fixed burn‐in time and a uniform upper bound for the optimal burn‐in time given the age replacement policy. These results can be used to reduce the numerical work for determining both optimal burn‐in time and optimal replacement policy. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

基于效果的炮兵火力打击控制

针对当代战争形态变化对炮兵战斗行动提出的诸多挑战,以军事科学发展观为牵引,以我军炮兵战术理论为依据,借鉴美军"基于效果作战"理论,结合运用系统科学与控制论原理,在抽象、规范炮兵火力打击行动的基础上,提出了基于效果的炮兵火力打击控制概念,并对其特征、内容、原则和方法进行了具体阐述,是推动炮兵战术理论发展的一种尝试.     

导弹最优突防机动方式研究

将导弹的突防-拦截问题简化到某一平面上,基于此问题的非线性模型,确定了以突防导弹侧向机动为输入,拦截导弹脱靶量为输出的非线性状态方程.针对所研究问题的最优控制类型,构造了系统的Hamilton函数,并通过极大值原理,研究了在平面内导弹机动能力一定的情况下最优规避机动方式.对于简化后的系统线性模型,以机动方式的基波分量为输入,用伴随系统分析方法,通过拦截导弹脱靶量的稳态解,计算了最优的机动频率.