美国THAAD导弹能量管理控制机动研究

针对美国THAAD导弹的能量管理控制机动,分析了其试验情况与设计目的,进行了能量管理技术途径的选择,确定了主动段大攻角飞行能量管理方法与相应的姿态调制控制方法,进行了仿THAAD导弹EMM弹道的仿真,得出了能量管理弹道的设计特点。     

高可靠性软件的极值统计分析

提出了极值统计分析的方法.对于失效数据极值分布函数的拟合检验,采用了相关系数法;对于母体分布的参数估计,则分别采用了最小二乘估计(LSE)和极大似然估计(MLE);最后通过一个实例说明了统计过程,并用模拟的方法证明了最小二乘估计较好.     

飞行模拟器逼真度的实用评价方法

分析了飞行模拟器模拟逼真度的概念和研究内容,提出了一种实用的评价方法.根据飞行模拟器的组成模块和结构,在驾驶员-飞机操纵回路分析的基础上,应用模糊评价的基本原理,建立了逼真度的评价模型,以专家的评定意见为主要依据,对某模拟器的逼真度进行了评价.实践证明,该方法可有效评价飞行模拟器的逼真度,提高模拟的有效性.     

基于威布尔过程模型的坦克部署期可靠性研究

通过对某新研坦克部署期故障情况进行具体而全面的统计分析,并采用基于随机点过程的可修系统理论中的威布尔过程模型(AMSAA模型),得出该型坦克部署期的可靠性特点与规律,对于研究新装备可靠性规律和提高新装备的部署保障水平,具有重要的借鉴作用.     

Evaluating methods for the reliability of a large 2‐dimensional rectangular k‐within‐consecutive‐(r,s)‐out‐of‐(m,n):F system

A 2‐dimensional rectangular k‐within‐consecutive‐(r, s)‐out‐of‐(m, n):F system consists of m × n components, and fails if and only if k or more components fail in an r × s submatrix. This system can be treated as a reliability model for TFT liquid crystal displays, wireless communication networks, etc. Although an effective method has been developed for evaluating the exact system reliability of small or medium‐sized systems, that method needs extremely high computing time and memory capacity when applied to larger systems. Therefore, developing upper and lower bounds and accurate approximations for system reliability is useful for large systems. In this paper, first, we propose new upper and lower bounds for the reliability of a 2‐dimensional rectangular k‐within‐consecutive‐(r, s)‐out‐of‐(m, n):F system. Secondly, we propose two limit theorems for that system. With these theorems we can obtain accurate approximations for system reliabilities when the system is large and component reliabilities are close to one. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

Predictability of operational processes over finite horizon

Operational processes are usually studied in terms of stochastic processes. The main information measure used for predictability of stochastic processes is the entropy rate, which is asymptotic conditional entropy, thus not suitable for application over a finite horizon. We use the conditional entropy to study the predictability of stochastic processes over the finite horizon. It is well‐known that the conditional entropies of stationary processes decrease as the processes evolve, implying that, on average, their pasts become more informative about prediction of their future outcomes. Some important operational processes such as martingale, models for maintenance policies, nonhomogeneous Poisson, and mixed Poisson processes are nonstationary. We show that as a nonstationary process evolves, it may provide more information or less information about the future state of the system. We develop results for comparing the predictability of stochastic processes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

燃气流量可调固体火箭冲压发动机飞行性能分析

在建立燃气流量可调固体火箭冲压发动机工作过程仿真模型的基础上,对燃气流量调节过程中发动机飞行性能进行分析.结果表明,在低飞行高度或高飞行马赫数时,发动机有较宽的推力调节范围;随着飞行高度降低或飞行马赫数增加,发动机推力系数降低;随着燃气发生器喷喉面积变小,发动机推力和推力系数增加.     

基于作战效能的武器装备可靠性指标评估方法

装备可靠性的评估是装备管理使用中面临的重要课题.在总结前人的研究基础上,提出了一种基于武器装备作战效能的可靠性评估方法:建立非线性指标聚合的武器效能指标体系,通过主客观评分效果对底层指标进行打分,经过非线性指标聚合等手段获取装备效能的归一化评估指数,通过多次评估获取装备效能评估指数数据集,以此为基础对装备的可靠性进行评估.最后给出了评估仿真实例,实验结果表明所提方法的有效性、可行性.     

基于响应平面法的压力容器可靠性评定

针对压力容器制造、使用过程中各种参数的不确定性,提出了一种基于响应平面的随机分析方法.根据某压力容器的结构特点,确定性有限元分析采用了接触有限元,结合中心组合抽样设计构建了容器最大应力的响应平面,以此为基础对压力容器应力分布进行了随机分析.可靠性分析中引入应力—强度干涉模型,并分别对容器壁面和接管处进行了可靠性评定.实...     

基于三角模糊数的舰空导弹飞行可靠性评估

根据舰空导弹飞行可靠性的基本概念,研究了基于三角模糊数的舰空导弹飞行可靠性评估方法,构建了舰空导弹飞行可靠性评估模型;分别给出了导弹发射前检查可靠性、导弹发射可靠性、导弹制导飞行可靠性、导弹命中目标可靠性的三角模糊数评定方法;采用专家评定法,评定舰空导弹武器系统单个设备可靠性的三角模糊数。通过研究,可评定舰空导弹在作战使用环境下的飞行可靠性,为导弹飞行可靠性评估提供一种新的研究方法。应用实例证明了评估方法的可操作性。