Spaghetti: systems thinking and the US Army

In the mid-2000s, the United States Army was embroiled in counterinsurgency missions in Iraq and Afghanistan that required deeper understanding of local social systems. The Army turned to systems thinking and design thinking to model and understand the world, define problems, and develop approaches to strategic and operational challenges. However, the Army’s approach as expressed in publications and doctrine encourages the development of complicated, unsupported, and unfalsifiable hypotheses. The risk is that the Army will act on incorrect assumptions and develop plans that are fragile.     

Implementing defence policy: a benchmark-“lite”

Most countries put significant amounts of time and effort in writing and issuing high-level policy documents. These are supposed to guide subsequent national defence efforts. But do they? And how do countries even try to ensure that they do? This paper reports on a benchmarking effort of how a few “best of breed” small- to medium-sized defence organisations (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) deal with these issues. We find that most countries fail to link goals to resources and pay limited attention to specific and rigorous ex-ante or post-hoc evaluation, even when compared to their own national government-wide provisions. We do, however, observe a (modest) trend towards putting more specific goals and metrics in these documents that can be – and in a few rare cases were – tracked. The paper identifies 42 concrete policy “nuggets” – both “do’s and don’ts” – that should be of interest to most defence policy planning/analysis communities. It ends with two recommendations that are in line with recent broader (non-defence) scholarship on the policy formulation-policy implementation gap: to put more rigorous emphasis on implementation (especially on achieving desired policy effects), but to do so increasingly in more experiential (“design”) ways, rather than in industrial-age bureaucratic ones (“PPBS”-systems).     

Multi‐item capacitated lot‐sizing problems with setup times and pricing decisions

We study a multi‐item capacitated lot‐sizing problem with setup times and pricing (CLSTP) over a finite and discrete planning horizon. In this class of problems, the demand for each independent item in each time period is affected by pricing decisions. The corresponding demands are then satisfied through production in a single capacitated facility or from inventory, and the goal is to set prices and determine a production plan that maximizes total profit. In contrast with many traditional lot‐sizing problems with fixed demands, we cannot, without loss of generality, restrict ourselves to instances without initial inventories, which greatly complicates the analysis of the CLSTP. We develop two alternative Dantzig–Wolfe decomposition formulations of the problem, and propose to solve their relaxations using column generation and the overall problem using branch‐and‐price. The associated pricing problem is studied under both dynamic and static pricing strategies. Through a computational study, we analyze both the efficacy of our algorithms and the benefits of allowing item prices to vary over time. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

地铁火灾应急预案的制定

介绍地铁火灾发生时的几个主要的特点以及其巨大的危害性,引出了地铁火灾应急预案制定模式的重要性。通过对已有的资料进行研究、分析,同时结合实际,对地铁火灾应急预案制定时所包含的主要内容进行了科学的完善,得出了一个完整的预案制定模式。     

基于攻击树的网络安全事件发生概率评估

为了提高网络安全风险概率预测的准确性,采用攻击树模型作为网络安全事件的描述模型,改进了攻击结点的定义,提出了网络安全事件发生概率的推算方法和攻击路径的分析方法,利用贝叶斯网络方法量化攻击树模型中原子事件结点的发生概率。实例表明该方法科学、客观、有效,为制订安全防护策略提供有力支持。     

Production planning with resources subject to congestion

A fundamental difficulty in developing effective production planning models has been accurately reflecting the nonlinear dependency between workload and lead times. We develop a mathematical programming model for production planning in multiproduct, single stage systems that captures the nonlinear dependency between workload and lead times. We then use outer linearization of this nonlinear model to obtain a linear programming formulation and extend it to multistage systems. Extensive computational experiments validate the approach and compare its results to conventional models that assume workload‐independent planning lead times. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

蓝牙技术在实时监控系统中的应用

介绍了将蓝牙技术结合嵌入式设备应用到监控系统中的方法,实现PDA与无人机飞行控制计算机间的无线实时数据传输和分析处理.实验表明蓝牙技术能够方便、安全、稳定地代替有线电缆,为控制领域的数据传输提供新的思路.     

一种地对空攻击武器的追及与跟踪方法

针对一种地对空武器在接到雷达跟踪指令时,由战斗准备状态追及目标、跟踪目标,直至跟踪射程区域外,或由雷达重新下达指令进入战斗准备状态的轨迹规划方法.轨迹规划中不仅考虑了系统最大速度的限制,同时还考虑了武器系统抗最大加速度的指标要求,在约束条件下规划追及过程,实现最优规划的计算方法.主要介绍了模糊追及和跟踪的计算规划方法,具有一定的实际意义.     

KPLS-SVM在缺失飞参数据估计中的应用

飞行参数的缺失给飞行事故调查工作带来了很大困难.将核的偏最小二乘法与支持向量机耦合,建立基于状态匹配的飞行参数估计模型可以较好地解决缺失飞参数据的估计问题.首先将初始输入映射到高维特征空间,进而利用偏最小二乘法在特征空间中提取对缺失飞参数据影响较强的得分向量, 最后将提取的得分向量作为输入建立支持向量机模型.既克服了输入变量间的相关性问题, 又降低了支持向量机的输入维数.仿真也说明了使用该方法估计缺失飞行参数的可行性和有效性.     

无人机电子干扰条件下的路径规划

针对机载预警雷达结合地面雷达对低空突防无人机构成的严重威胁,提出一种基于A*算法的路径规划算法.该算法分析了电子干扰和无人机RCS对雷达探测空间的影响,建立了新的雷达探测空间模型和威胁模型进行路径规划,将A*算法应用于无人机的路径规划过程.在此基础上给出了应用该方法的具体步骤,并进行了MATLAB仿真.仿真结果表明:考虑电子干扰对雷达威胁区域影响的情况下规划的飞行路径飞行器能有效回避威胁,有效提高无人机的低空突防能力.