基于模糊双矩阵对策的作战效能评估模型

讨论了策略集清晰、支付值模糊的模糊双矩阵对策的一种求解方法,并以某型导弹混编群对抗ARM（反辐射导弹）及载机为案例进行研究,建立了基于模糊双矩阵对策的作战效能评估模型,研究结果对于双方资源分配,提高作战效能具有一定的军事应用价值。     

一种基于协调理论的军事决策过程建模方法

在分析协调理论应用的基础上,针对军事决策过程的建模,基于UML2.0的用例图,提出了基于协调理论的军事决策过程建模方法。应用该建模方法,有利于分析军事决策过程中的核心任务活动及其相关依赖,为指挥员实施平行决策,并发地制订和确定作战方案(Course of Action)提供依据,从而提高军事决策过程的适应性。     

Zr基块体非晶合金屈服行为及屈服准则研究

为了明确块体非晶合金屈服行为与屈服准则的关系,对非晶合金屈服强度间相互关系以及试验中拉伸和压缩断裂面与最大剪应力作用的45°倾斜面的偏离角度进行分析,应用滑移线间断场理论和Mises屈服条件计算出拉伸颈缩断裂面与载荷轴夹角和块体非晶合金实验结果的一致性,利用Coulomb屈服条件计算出的单轴压缩断裂面倾斜角与实验结果相吻合,确定块体非晶合金在不同应力状态下遵循不同的屈服准则:在拉伸条件下该块体非晶合金遵循Mises屈服准则;在压缩条件下遵循Coulomb屈服准则。     

两级信息融合技术在柴油机故障诊断中的应用

针对传统神经网络在故障诊断中因测点信息多而导致的网络庞大、收敛困难等问题,引入集成神经网络,提高了融合诊断效率;同时引入基于D-S证据理论,这种决策融合方法解决了集成神经网络各个子网诊断结果不一致的问题。在应用于柴油机故障诊断时,首先对测取的正常和故障样本进行小波包AR谱分析,同时提取各个特征频带的能量分别作为集成神经网络对应子网的输入进行诊断,当其无法确定诊断结果时,再运用证据理论进行决策融合输出最终诊断结果。试验证明:基于集成神经网络和D-S证据理论的两级综合诊断模型提高了诊断的准确性和可靠性。     

马克思主义原理课教学探讨——课堂讨论在教学中的作用、实施及检验

马克思主义理论课是高校进行马克思主义理论教育,培养大学生树立科学世界观、人生观的重要内容。如何提高教学效果和教学质量是每个教师的不懈追求。在教学实践中,把教师讲述和学生讨论结合起来,突出课堂讨论在教学过程中的作用,对提高学生学习主动性、积极性及理论素养,改善教学效果具有重要意义。     

基于灰色模糊理论的大型医院病房楼火灾风险评价

针对现阶段大型医院病房楼火灾频发,危害严重的现状,提出基于多级灰色模糊理论评价方法,利用此方法对大型医院病房楼火灾风险建立了评价指标体系,并对其进行了实例火灾风险分析。     

火灾等级标准问题的数量化研究

在定性分析现有火灾等级标准的基础上,做出了火灾等级标准的数量化探讨。将D-S证据理论方法应用到火灾等级的综合评价中,将死亡人数、重伤人数、直接财产损失三个重要指标作为评定证据进行信息汇集,将汇集结果作为评定标准,针对中国消防年鉴中530起重、特大火灾进行实例计算,并做出总体分析、特例分析和边界值分析。结果表明该方法克服了单因素评价的不足,使评价更加科学、合理。     

Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues,advancements, and ways forward

How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research.     

Drone usage by militant groups: exploring variation in adoption

Judging by recent media reporting and pronouncements by senior US military and security officials, the use of drones by militant groups is both reshaping conflict between armed non-state actors and state parties and now presents a grave and direct threat to nations in the West and elsewhere. But does this threat warrant the attention it is currently receiving? To answer this question, this article surveys how various militant groups have used drones both tactically on the battlefield and for wider strategic purposes. Closely examining how drones have been employed and by whom provides a basis for understanding variation in adoption. The article shows how drone usage or non-usage is highly contingent on the setting of the conflict, the aims of different groups, and the capacity of groups to adopt the technology. Though advances in drone technology could make the use-case more appealing for militant groups, drones will be subject to the same back-and-forth, techno-tactical adaptation dynamic between adversaries that have accompanied prior military innovations.     

“电机统一理论”在电机控制中的作用

直流电机在恒速时其电压方程为常系数的线性微分方程,在电机控制中能进行快速的转矩和磁通控制。而异步电机是一个多变量、强耦合、非线性的时变参数系统,很难直接通过外加信号准确控制电磁转矩。但若以转子磁通这一旋转的空间矢量为参考坐标,应用"电机统一理论",利用从静止坐标系到旋转坐标系之间的变换,则可以把定子电流中的励磁电流分量与转矩电流分量变成标量独立开来,进行分别控制。这样,通过坐标变换重建的电机模型就可等效为一台直流电机,从而可像直流电机那样进行快速的转矩和磁通控制,给电机控制系统带来新的契机。