概率分布模型的飞机战备完好率评估与预测

飞机战备完好率是军用飞机战斗力的重要体现.在分析目前部队常用的飞机战备完好率算法缺陷的基础上,建立了基于概率分布的飞机战备完好率计算模型,该模型体现了飞机任务可靠性、维修性与战备完好性之间的关系.以某型飞机为例,通过分析飞机任务可靠度,利用飞机可靠性、维修性、保障性及作战训练任务的历史统计数据,依据概率分布模型对飞机的...     

Multi-objectives nonlinear structure optimization for actuator in trajectory correction fuze subject to high impact loadings

This paper presents an actuator used for the trajectory correction fuze, which is subject to high impact loadings during launch. A simulation method is carried out to obtain the peak-peak stress value of each component, from which the ball bearings are possible failures according to the results. Subsequently, three schemes against impact loadings, full-element deep groove ball bearing and integrated raceway, needle roller thrust bearing assembly, and gaskets are utilized for redesigning the actuator to effectively reduce the bearings' stress. However, multi-objectives optimization still needs to be conducted for the gaskets to decrease the stress value further to the yield stress. Four gasket's structure parameters and three bearings' peak-peak stress are served as the four optimization variables and three objectives, respectively. Optimized Latin hypercube design is used for generating sample points, and Kriging model selected according to estimation result can establish the relationship between the variables and objec-tives, representing the simulation which is time-consuming. Accordingly, two optimization algorithms work out the Pareto solutions, from which the best solutions are selected, and verified by the simulation to determine the gaskets optimized structure parameters. It can be concluded that the simulation and optimization method based on these components is effective and efficient.     

Storage life prediction under pre-strained thermally-accelerated aging of HTPB coating using the change of crosslinking density

In order to predict the storage life of a certain type of HTPB (hydroyl-terminated polybutadiene) coating at 25 C and analyze the influence of pre-strain on the storage life, the accelerated aging tests of HTPB coating at 40 C, 50 C, 60 C, 70 C with the pre-strain of 0%, 3%, 6%, 9%, respectively were carried out. The variation regularity of the change of crosslinking density was analyzed and the aging model of HTPB coating under pre-strained thermally-accelerated aging was proposed. The storage life of HTPB coating at 25 C was estimated by using the Berthelot equation as the end point of the aging life with a 30% decrease in maximum elongation. The results showed that the change of crosslinking density of HTPB coating increased with the increase of aging temperature and aging time, and decreased with the in-crease of pre-strain. Under 0% pre-strain, the relationship between the change of crosslinking density of HTPB coating and the aging time can be described by the logarithmic model with the confidence probability greater than 99%.The stress relaxation phenomenon existed under 3%, 6% and 9% pre-strained aging. The aging model considering chemical aging and pre-strain was established with the confidence probability greater than 90%. The storage life of HTPB coating was 15.2935 years at 25 C under 0% pre-strain, which was reduced by 13.9007%, 75.6949% and 89.7859% under 3%, 6% and 9% pre-strain, respectively. The existence of pre-strain has a serious impact on the storage life of HTPB coating, therefore, the pre-strain should be avoided as much as possible during the actual storage.     

路面不平度的频谱分析及其AR模型

描述了路面不平度的统计特性,建立了AR模型。运用现代谱估计的方法对沙土地、硬土地和耕地等非人工路面的频谱特性进行了分析,得到了沙土地等3种路面的加速度功率谱和位移功率谱密度曲线图。结果表明,沙土地和耕地路面要好于硬土地路面,该结论与常识相符,验证了用AR模型法进行功率谱分析的可靠性和可行性。     

A theory of war economies

This article presents a proposed theory of how war economies are formed and maintained, as well as an integrated policy framework to guide the dismantling of war economies emanating from the proposed theory. Additionally, six potential areas for future research pertaining to the dismantling of war economies are also presented.     

Trinitarian troubles: governmental,military, and societal explanations for post-1945 Western failures in asymmetric conflicts

It seems paradoxical that powerful Western states are at their most vulnerable when the disparity in military capabilities between them and their opponents is at its largest. Yet it is precisely in such ‘asymmetric conflicts’ that Western countries have failed to achieve their overall political objectives the most often. Focusing on the post-1945 world, this article will examine governmental, military, and societal reasons for Western failures in asymmetric conflicts. Politicians' lack of understanding regarding war's fundamental nature, militaries' tendency to dissociate operational goals from grand strategy objectives and citizens' moral aversion to warfare appear to be among the main obstacles to success.     

战时装备维修保障资源优化模型

维修资源在抢修过程中的分配决定了抢修活动的平均处理时间和等待时间,针对抢修实施时维修资源的分配,研究资源的优化配置使抢修时间最小的问题.在抢修过程中使抢修时间最小的目标和约束条件下,提出了资源配置优化的排队模型,并结合遗传算法给出了求解最优配置模型的方法,通过实例分析说明了模型和方法的应用情况.资源配置优化模型和算法已成功应用于集群装备保障决策系统的开发.     

基于行为建模的移动代理性能评估

针对移动代理的分布式应用性能评估需求,建立了移动代理生命周期中主要行为的网络负载模型和时间消耗模型.在3种典型分布式应用想定下,分析了基于C＼S模式和移动代理模式的应用实现基本过程,对两种模式下的网络负载和执行时间进行了仿真比较,结果证明了在访问节点数量较多,网络传输速率较低时,移动代理模式的具有更好性能.     

基于随机时间的导弹机动路径规划研究

根据导弹作战机动过程各路段机动时间随机性特点,运用随机规划理论建立了导弹机动任务规划的数学模型,设计了遗传算法求解策略,实现了在一定时间内合理地规划机动路线的任务,并通过算例作了说明。该方法可用于导弹机动路径选择,为导弹作战机动计划的制定提供决策依据。     

仿真概念模型可重用性评估

概念模型的重用已成为当今仿真研究的热点问题之一,本文主要对作战仿真中概念模型的可重用性评估展开研究。首先建立了概念模型可重用性评估指标体系,在此基础上研究了概念模型可重用性评估算法,对评估中领域专家的权重分配方法和评估结果的表示方法进行了研究,提出了“静态权重+动态权重”的组合权重分配方法和用Kiviat图表示评估结果的方法。最后对概念模型在“XX作战仿真系统”开发中的重用结果进行了分析,结果表明,通过概念模型的重用可以有效地缩短概念模型的开发时间,提高开发效率,提高概念模型的可信性。