Analysis of supply contracts with commitments and flexibility

In this article we address an important class of supply contracts called the Rolling Horizon Flexibility (RHF) contracts. Under such a contract, at the beginning of the horizon a buyer has to commit requirements for components for each period into the future. Usually, a supplier provides limited flexibility to the buyer to adjust the current order and future commitments in a rolling horizon manner. We present a general model for a buyer's procurement decision under RHF contracts. We propose two heuristics and derive a lower bound. Numerically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the heuristics for both stationary and non‐stationary demands. We show that the heuristics are easy to compute, and hence, amenable to practical implementation. We also propose two measures for the order process that allow us to (a) evaluate the effectiveness of RHF contracts in restricting the variability in the orders, and (b) measure the accuracy of advance information vis‐a‐vis the actual orders. Numerically we demonstrate that the order process variability decreases significantly as flexibility decreases without a dramatic increase in expected costs. Our numerical studies provide several other managerial insights for the buyer; for example, we provide insights into how much flexibility is sufficient, the value of additional flexibility, the effect of flexibility on customer satisfaction (as measured by fill rate), etc. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Bayesian enhanced decision making for deteriorating repairable systems with preventive maintenance

Since a system and its components usually deteriorate with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to restore or keep the function of a system in a good state. Furthermore, PM is capable of improving the health condition of the system and thus prolongs its effective age. There has been a vast amount of research to find optimal PM policies for deteriorating repairable systems. However, such decisions involve numerous uncertainties and the analyses are typically difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. In this article, a Bayesian decision model is developed to determine the optimal number of PM actions for systems which are maintained according to a periodic PM policy. A non‐homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deteriorating behavior of the repairable system. It is assumed that the status of the system after a PM is somewhere between as good as new for a perfect repair and as good as old for a minimal repair, and for failures between two preventive maintenances, the system undergoes minimal repairs. Finally, a numerical example is given and the results of the proposed approach are discussed after performing sensitivity analysis. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

基于认知模型的人为差错分类方法

为了保证人为差错分类的全面性和一致性,在详细分析现有人为差错分类方法的基础上,提出了一种新的人为差错分类框架.该框架以"执行差错,忽略"为起点进行细化,得到五种基本的人为差错类别.以此作为人为差错原语,结合认知模型,分析了不同认知阶段可能出现的人为差错模式.实例证明,在这种分类方法指导下来分析人为差错,对提高人为差错分类结果的全面性和一致性有着重要意义.     

Scheduling of depalletizing and truck loading operations in a food distribution system

This paper studies a scheduling problem arising in a beef distribution system where pallets of various types of beef products in the warehouse are first depalletized and then individual cases are loaded via conveyors to the trucks which deliver beef products to various customers. Given each customer's demand for each type of beef, the problem is to find a depalletizing and truck loading schedule that fills all the demands at a minimum total cost. We first show that the general problem where there are multiple trucks and each truck covers multiple customers is strongly NP‐hard. Then we propose polynomial‐time algorithms for the case where there are multiple trucks, each covering only one customer, and the case where there is only one truck covering multiple customers. We also develop an optimal dynamic programming algorithm and a heuristic for solving the general problem. By comparing to the optimal solutions generated by the dynamic programming algorithm, the heuristic is shown to be capable of generating near optimal solutions quickly. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

A componentwise index of service measurement in multi‐component systems

In this paper we present a componentwise delay measure for estimating and improving the expected delays experienced by customers in a multi‐component inventory/assembly system. We show that this measure is easily computed. Further, in an environment where the performance of each of the item delays could be improved with investment, we present a solution that aims to minimize this measure and, in effect, minimizes the average waiting time experienced by customers. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 2003     

Threshold optimization for weighted voting classifiers

Weighted voting classifiers considered in this paper consist of N units each providing individual classification decisions. The entire system output is based on tallying the weighted votes for each decision and choosing the one which has total support weight exceeding a certain threshold. Each individual unit may abstain from voting. The entire system may also abstain from voting if no decision support weight exceeds the threshold. Existing methods of evaluating the reliability of weighted voting systems can be applied to limited special cases of these systems and impose some restrictions on their parameters. In this paper a universal generating function method is suggested which allows the reliability of weighted voting classifiers to be exactly evaluated without imposing constraints on unit weights. Based on this method, the classifier reliability is determined as a function of a threshold factor, and a procedure is suggested for finding the threshold which minimizes the cost of damage caused by classifier failures (misclassification and abstention may have different price.) Dynamic and static threshold voting rules are considered and compared. A method of analyzing the influence of units' availability on the entire classifier reliability is suggested, and illustrative examples are presented. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 322–344, 2003.     

武器控制系统战斗有效性分析

分析了武器控制系统对机载武器系统战斗有效性的影响因素,定量描述了各影响因素,给出了影响战斗有效性程度的指数,并研究了其计算的方法。根据计算结果,得到了战斗有效性的损失变化范围,这一变化范围可作为评价武器控制系统优劣的重要依据,最后给出了具体算例和说明。     

舰炮火控系统反应时间与精度关系的仿真

对舰炮火控系统中反应时间和系统精度之间的关系做了简要的介绍,并论述了舰炮火控系统中时间和精度之间复杂的关系,通过分析采样点数和误差之间的关系,结合采样点数和系统反应时间之间的联系以及误差与系统精度之间的联系,引出反应时间与精度之间的某种关系,最后对从接收目标指示到给出射击诸元这个过程的各个时间段与其相对应的精度之间的关系进行计算机仿真。     

数字化部队指挥网络系统效能评价模型

以结构熵理论为基础,分析数字化部队作战指挥信息网络系统组织结构对系统内信息流的影响,从信息的角度对系统组织结构的有序度进行评价,引入信息流的时效和质量的概念,建立定量评价系统结构有序度计算的时效质量模型,结合系统数据传输业务效能的评价方法,形成作战指挥信息网络系统整体综合效能的评价模型。最后辅以实例。     

红外导弹制导系统的半实物仿真系统设计

对导弹系统的核心部件——制导系统进行半实物仿真是导弹系统研制中最经济和有效的手段之一。论述了红外制导系统半实物仿真系统的功用,给出了其原理框图,对其中几个关键技术:运动学方程特性的仿真建模、目标背景与对抗特性的生成技术、计算机软件和接口技术、校准设备与故障检测等的实现进行了深入地分析,并介绍了其具体的设计方案。