基于模糊神经网络的连轴器故障诊断方法

针对连轴器的典型故障,应用振动谱分析方法,在前期实验的基础上,总结出连轴器故障诊断的几条模糊规则,提出了基于模糊神经网络的连轴器故障诊断方法,提高了故障诊断的准确度。     

飞行模拟器逼真度的实用评价方法

分析了飞行模拟器模拟逼真度的概念和研究内容,提出了一种实用的评价方法.根据飞行模拟器的组成模块和结构,在驾驶员-飞机操纵回路分析的基础上,应用模糊评价的基本原理,建立了逼真度的评价模型,以专家的评定意见为主要依据,对某模拟器的逼真度进行了评价.实践证明,该方法可有效评价飞行模拟器的逼真度,提高模拟的有效性.     

新型船用气体稳压器启动充气过程的建模及仿真研究

基于船用核动力一体化反应堆结构的需要,建立了新型船用气体稳压器启动充气过程的数学模型,并进行了仿真计算.计算结果表明,该模型能正确地描述该型稳压器实际的启动充气过程,满足工程设计及系统研究的需要.     

卫星军事应用系统作战效能评估的网络层次分析法研究

根据卫星军事应用系统的特点研究了基于网络层次分析法的效能评估方法.确立了效能评价的准则,给出了影响其作战效能的指标集,建立了网络层次分析法控制层和网络层模型,并且利用计算极限超矩阵的方法对单个准则下各方案的作战效能进行排序.最后,通过对单个准则下的排序向量进行加权求和获得卫星军事应用系统作战效能的排序向量.     

基于遗传算法的潜射反舰导弹综合作战效能分析

提出了直接根据单指标相对隶属度的模糊评价矩阵,构造层次分析法中的判断矩阵用以确定各评价指标权重的方法,给出了用遗传算法检验和修正判断矩阵的一致性和计算判断矩阵各要素的权重的模糊综合评价模型,对潜射反舰导弹作战效能进行了综合评估和排序.实例表明,该方法简便通用,计算结果较为客观和稳定.     

模糊集值统计理论在灭火救援指挥效能评估中的应用

在建立评估指标体系的基础上,将模糊集值统计理论应用于灭火救援指挥效能评估中。该理论方法改变了以往统计给出一个固定值的做法,而给出一个区间值,使某些具有模糊性和随机性的评估指标权值的确定更加符合实际情况。实例研究表明:该方法克服了经典统计法的不足,提高了效能评估的实用性和科学性。     

Approximations and empirics for stochastic war equations

The article develops a theorem which shows that the Lanchester linear war equations are not in general equal to the Kolmogorov linear war equations. The latter are time‐consuming to solve, and speed is important when a large number of simulations must be run to examine a large parameter space. Run times are provided, where time is a scarce factor in warfare. Four time efficient approximations are presented in the form of ordinary differential equations for the expected sizes and variances of each group, and the covariance, accounting for reinforcement and withdrawal of forces. The approximations are compared with “exact” Monte Carlo simulations and empirics from the WWII Ardennes campaign. The band spanned out by plus versus minus the incremented standard deviations captures some of the scatter in the empirics, but not all. With stochastically varying combat effectiveness coefficients, a substantial part of the scatter in the empirics is contained. The model is used to forecast possible futures. The implications of increasing the combat effectiveness coefficient governing the size of the Allied force, and injecting reinforcement to the German force during the Campaign, are evaluated, with variance assessments. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

模糊综合评价法在消防应急救援指挥平台建设中的应用研究

消防应急救援指挥平台建设项目具有涉及随机因素多、适用环境复杂、使用技术先进、投资较大等特征,在分析研究该项目的基础上,构建了基于模糊综合评价法的项目风险评价模型,并应用该模型对消防应急救援指挥平台建设项目进行了风险评价,得出了相应的风险水平,证明了该项目的可行性,提出了降低风险的措施.     

Directional change‐point detection for process control with multivariate categorical data

Most modern processes involve multiple quality characteristics that are all measured on attribute levels, and their overall quality is determined by these characteristics simultaneously. The characteristic factors usually correlate with each other, making multivariate categorical control techniques a must. We study Phase I analysis of multivariate categorical processes (MCPs) to identify the presence of change‐points in the reference dataset. A directional change‐point detection method based on log‐linear models is proposed. The method exploits directional shift information and integrates MCPs into the unified framework of multivariate binomial and multivariate multinomial distributions. A diagnostic scheme for identifying the change‐point location and the shift direction is also suggested. Numerical simulations are conducted to demonstrate the detection effectiveness and the diagnostic accuracy.© 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Analysis of the finite‐source multiclass priority queue with an unreliable server and setup time

In this article, we study a queueing system serving multiple classes of customers. Each class has a finite‐calling population. The customers are served according to the preemptive‐resume priority policy. We assume general distributions for the service times. For each priority class, we derive the steady‐state system size distributions at departure/arrival and arbitrary time epochs. We introduce the residual augmented process completion times conditioned on the number of customers in the system to obtain the system time distribution. We then extend the model by assuming that the server is subject to operation‐independent failures upon which a repair process with random duration starts immediately. We also demonstrate how setup times, which may be required before resuming interrupted service or picking up a new customer, can be incorporated in the model. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013