The rise and fall of counterproliferation policy

The US government initiated a Defense Counterproliferation Initiative to address the concern that, in the post-Cold War years, the proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons would be widespread and create a significant challenge to the US military’s combat operations. In particular, non-nuclear states might use chemical or biological warfare agents against US forces with the belief that nuclear weapons would not be used against them in retaliation. Following the events of September 11, 2001, defense strategy and policy shifted to a wider view of the threat of adversarial use of “weapons of mass destruction” (WMD) and the term “counterproliferation” was replaced by “combating” or “countering WMD.” Over time, the Defense Department increasingly moved away from counterproliferation principles with the detrimental effect of losing capabilities that US forces still need for contemporary adversaries. This shift has been aggravated by other US government agencies’ use of “counterproliferation” in lieu of what would have been termed “nonproliferation” activities in the 1990s. The loss of clarity within the US government on these terms has led to the inability to focus the “whole of government” on this significant national security challenge. To alleviate this challenge, the US government needs a top-down initiative to refocus policy on the distinctly different aspects of WMD with respect to military combat operations, combating terrorism, and homeland security.     

Maintaining systems with heterogeneous spare parts

We consider the problem of optimally maintaining a stochastically degrading, single‐unit system using heterogeneous spares of varying quality. The system's failures are unannounced; therefore, it is inspected periodically to determine its status (functioning or failed). The system continues in operation until it is either preventively or correctively maintained. The available maintenance options include perfect repair, which restores the system to an as‐good‐as‐new condition, and replacement with a randomly selected unit from the supply of heterogeneous spares. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted maintenance costs over an infinite time horizon. We formulate the problem using a mixed observability Markov decision process (MOMDP) model in which the system's age is observable but its quality must be inferred. We show, under suitable conditions, the monotonicity of the optimal value function in the belief about the system quality and establish conditions under which finite preventive maintenance thresholds exist. A detailed computational study reveals that the optimal policy encourages exploration when the system's quality is uncertain; the policy is more exploitive when the quality is highly certain. The study also demonstrates that substantial cost savings are achieved by utilizing our MOMDP‐based method as compared to more naïve methods of accounting for heterogeneous spares.     

陆军武器装备建设智能化转型思考

智能化战争形态加速演变,为新时代陆军装备建设带来严峻挑战。必须充分认清陆军武器装备建设智能化转型形势任务,正确把握智能化陆战的基本内涵、典型特性和能力要求等需求牵引,科学确立陆军武器装备体系智能化转型总体思路和发展目标,加快推进陆军武器装备体系智能化建设发展,为新型陆军“迈向智能”奠定基础。     

Exact analysis of (R,s, S) inventory control systems with lost sales and zero lead time

We study an (R, s, S) inventory control policy with stochastic demand, lost sales, zero lead‐time and a target service level to be satisfied. The system is modeled as a discrete time Markov chain for which we present a novel approach to derive exact closed‐form solutions for the limiting distribution of the on‐hand inventory level at the end of a review period, given the reorder level (s) and order‐up‐to level (S). We then establish a relationship between the limiting distributions for adjacent values of the reorder point that is used in an efficient recursive algorithm to determine the optimal parameter values of the (R, s, S) replenishment policy. The algorithm is easy to implement and entails less effort than solving the steady‐state equations for the corresponding Markov model. Point‐of‐use hospital inventory systems share the essential characteristics of the inventory system we model, and a case study using real data from such a system shows that with our approach, optimal policies with significant savings in inventory management effort are easily obtained for a large family of items.     

舰船腐蚀电场建模及补偿最优解验证

基于等效偶极子法,从补偿偶极子长度、角度、大小三方面给出了任意角度的补偿偶极子场解析式,再利用电荷矢量叠加原理,建立了"腐蚀偶极子+补偿偶极子"电场模型。仿真以单轴桨船为例,先验证"腐蚀偶极子+补偿偶极子"电场模型的正确性,再进行补偿偶极子对舰船电场的影响验证,从而得出补偿最优解。模拟实验结果表明,补偿阳极在工程允许条件下距离补偿系统接船端最远处,且补偿系统平行于水平面和船体时补偿效果最优;在补偿最优条件下,理论上是可以抵消原舰船腐蚀电场的。     

金属泡沫断裂韧性的试验研究

金属泡沫在其实际应用中,断裂性能和断裂韧性对于承载的多孔金属泡沫有着重要的意义。基于美国试验材料学会相关标准,采用三点弯曲试样测定了铝泡沫的I型断裂韧性。研究表明,金属泡沫的断裂为脆性断裂,在裂纹尖端附近,孔壁最薄弱的区域最容易发生变形;随着进一步加载,一些孔壁发生断裂,微裂纹在断裂尖端附近出现。随着载荷的增加,主裂纹在缺口根部形成或由微裂纹合并而成,并开始在多孔结构内传播。裂纹沿着结构最薄弱处传播,并产生次生裂纹和裂纹桥。裂纹总的扩展方式还是I型断裂。根据试验P-V曲线特点,取最大载荷点对应的力与位移求解出铝泡沫的裂纹尖端临界张开位移的平均值为0.051 mm。     

基于模糊多目标对策的雷达反干扰策略优化

考虑到单部雷达反干扰效能评估指标多样化、模糊且存在不同权重的情况,在对策论基础上提出了一种雷达反干扰策略优化模型,并在考虑局中人偏好情况下,设计了一种模糊多目标对策最优混合策略求解算法,为找出较优化的雷达反干扰策略以及为战场决策提供参考。     

新型光电装备免费及按比例组合保修策略

通过对新型光电装备故障规律和实际保修的需求分析,在原有规定保证期内免费保修策略基础上进行优化,提出免费及按比例保修组合策略概念,建立该策略对应的费用模型及可用度模型,得到费效比函数。同时通过对某新型光电装备保证期内维修保障工作应用组合保修策略开展实例建模,得到最优策略并分析证明提出该组合策略的实用性和可行性。     

相控阵雷达维修方案优选方法研究

针对相控阵雷达维修方案的选择问题,确定了维修方案的决策属性,并提出一种基于改进TOPSIS法的相控阵雷达维修方案优选方法。该方法通过引入Vague集来处理维修方案选择中存在的模糊信息,并采用博弈论综合赋权法来确定决策属性的综合权重。通过计算各备选方案与正、负理想方案的灰色关联度,得到了维修方案的灰色关联相对贴近度,进而实现对维修方案的排序和选择。最后,通过算例应用与分析,对提出的方法进行了验证。     

基于变结构的应急航材调度策略

针对应急航材需求的随机性提出了变结构应急航材配送网络的概念,立足于物流运输车辆的优化调度,将现代优化算法引入应急航材的调度中,通过仿真算例的验证可以得出调运路径长度及应急航材需求量与调运时间成正比。