基于状态的维修及其决策模型研究

在分析各种传统维修方式优缺点的基础上,研究了基于状态的维修(Condition Based Maintenance,CBM)中现行的几个技术标准IEEE Std 1451、IEEE Std 1232和ISO 13373-1,并着重分析了CBM开放系统体系结构OSA-CBM的7大组成模块,指出了未来CBM的发展应集中于OSA-CBM的第5、6模块的研究。针对这2个模块,给出了一种利用建立数学模型进行装备健康预测及维修决策支持的可行的研究思路和结构框架。     

基于SSM的装备指挥业务建模体系框架研究

在研究软系统方法论(SSM)的基础上,提出了"基于实体、面向过程、围绕活动、搞清机理"的装备指挥业务建模思路,构建了装备指挥业务建模体系结构、业务建模方法框架和业务建模过程框架。基于软系统方法论的装备指挥业务建模体系框架,能够有效促进业务模型对业务系统描述的完整性、一致性,具有重要的研究和应用价值。     

在与斗争哲学的比较中把握和谐思维的本质和特征

为了深刻认识坚持和谐思维的重要意义,需要在与斗争哲学的比较中把握其本质和特征。和谐思维是对斗争哲学的扬弃,是对唯物辩证法的创新、丰富和发展,是辩证思维在当代发展的最新形式。承认世界在本质上是和谐的,和谐发展是自然界、社会和人类思维发展的普遍规律,是和谐思维的世界观基础;全面谋求我国全体人民的各种利益和人类的利益,是和谐思维的价值观基础;努力创造构建和谐社会、和谐世界的有效方式和途径,是和谐思维的方法论诉求。今天,必须大力提倡和坚持和谐思维,摒弃斗争哲学。     

公安现役院校教学质量监控体系的建立与实践

教学质量是高等学校的生命线,是影响人才培养质量的最直接因素。依据本院在教学质量监控方面的探索与实践,提出建立一套适合公安现役院校特点的教学质量监控体系,用来指导和评价教学工作,加强教学管理,不断提高教学质量。     

弹药库防静电方法研究

根据弹药库静电危险场所的分类等级,以形成静电危害的3个基本条件为依据,讨论了弹药库防静电危害常用措施:设施设备静电接地、防静电工作台、人体静电防护、铺设导电(或防静电)地面以及各自防静电要求.这些措施为防止和消除弹药库的静电危害提供了根本保障.     

EEMD联合AOK-TFR提取车辆微多普勒特征

利用连续波雷达探测运动车辆时,非线性、非平稳的多分量回波信号不易解析提取,基于此,提出了联合总体经验模态分解(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD)和自适应最优核时频分布(Adaptive Optimal Kernel Time-Frequency Distribution,AOK-TFR)的方法提取运动车辆的微多普勒(micro-Doppler)特征。建立了车体振动和车轮转动对雷达回波信号产生的复合调制效应数学模型,并对多分量回波信号进行了EEMD,通过联合AOKTFR解析回波信号的固有模态分量,得到了较清晰的微多普勒时频像,较好地克服了地杂波带来的EMD模态混叠。仿真分析表明该方法提取到的微多普勒特征参数与仿真参数吻合,证明了该方法的有效性。     

美国2014年《四年防务评估报告》特点

2014年3月4日,美国国防部向国会提交了2014年版《四年防务评估报告》和《2015财年国防预算报告》。《四年防务评估报告》更新了再平衡战略,为美军建设提出了优先发展方向,要求美军联合部队向“更小型化”转型,以满足未来军事行动需求。     

一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型

研究一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型,得到了模型的基本再生数.通过线性化的方法,运用LaSalle-Lyapunov定理,证明当基本再生数R01时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;通过迭代的方法,证明当基本再生数R01时,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

The sixteenth-century antecedents of special operations ‘small war’

The first conceptual, theoretical treatises about small war (la petite guerre) as special operations appeared only from the middle of the seventeenth century. The term is not used in the eighteenth-century sense of ‘special operations’ in older sources. The supposed absence of any treatment of the subject is surprising considering the obsession with the ‘art of war’ in the Renaissance, but other authors attribute it to a supposed antinomy between chivalric ideals and irregular warfare. But the absence of explicit manuals on the subject is not evidence of absence of advanced reflection on this kind of operations in the Middle Ages and in Early Modern times. We should thus look elsewhere, in other genres, for writings that contain and pass on military knowledge. Epics, romances, educational and military treatises, and memoirs in fact contain elements of a theory of special operations, even though these genres differ from our conception of rationality inherited from the Enlightenment.