索赔离散到达的风险模型

讨论了索赔到达时间和索赔额均服从几何分布的风险模型 ,利用逐段决定马尔可夫骨架过程的广义生成算子去构造有关盈余过程的鞅 ,精确求解了模型的破产概率     

GPS动态定位中的自适应扩展卡尔曼滤波算法

针对全球定位系统 (GPS)提出一种扩展卡尔曼滤波器算法。这种滤波器算法直接从GPS接收机输出的定位结果入手 ,将各种误差因素的影响等效为一个总误差 ,对GPS接收机的机动载体的加速度采用当前统计模型 ,并利用线性卡尔曼滤波器进行动态定位数据的处理。本模型简单 ,实时性好 ,滤波后定位精度得到提高。     

高维非线性电路平衡点稳定性研究

提出了一种新的分析具有分解形式的高维非线性电路平衡点全局渐近稳定的方法.这种方法以矩阵分解为工具,结合平衡点的渐近稳定判据,用分解矩阵的稳定性决定平衡点的全局渐近稳定性.与目前该问题所采用的LIYAPUNOV直接法相比,该方法具有无须判断平衡点的唯一性,判别方法直接明了等优点.电路维数越大时,此方法越有其优势.同时,该方法对于其他形式的非线性系统的分析,也有重要的启发性及应用价值.     

基于马尔科夫链的一种评价方法

应用了数理统计与随机过程理论,从分析动态系统的状态以及状态转移情况给出了一种合理的评价方法,经过实例验证,该方法效果较好.     

二维运动目标纯方位系统的部分可观测性

针对二维空间作匀加速运动的目标,对等速直线运动的单观测站纯方位目标运动分析问题进行了讨论.此时系统是不完全可观测的.本文证明了目标部分运动参数是可估计的,即目标与观察者的相对航向Kr,相对速度与初距离之比Vr/D0,加速度与初距离之比a/D0是可以解算的,并对可估计参数的有解条件进行了分析.     

Military Expenditure as a Proxy for State Power. The Case of France

This paper attempts to build a simple indicator of state power. Military expenditure is the paper’s point of departure, with the definitions given by NATO, SIPRI and others. This definition is discussed and a power version is build, using French budgetary data. Then a defence of the result against traditional or non-traditional critics is presented under an imperative of action. Finally, this concept is enlarged and a new concept of power expenditures is given, one more time using French budgetary data. The conclusion is that this large expenditure concept is an unbiased but imperfect indicator of the will to act, and has to be completed by GDP to indicate the capability to act in the long-run.     

Deterrence under nuclear asymmetry: THAAD and the prospects for missile defense on the Korean peninsula

The 2016 decision to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to South Korea has generated multitude of intensely politicized issues and has proved highly controversial. This has made it challenging to alleviate, let alone clarify, points of analytical and policy tensions. We instead disaggregate and revisit two fundamental questions. One is whether THAAD could really defend South Korea from North Korean missiles. We challenge the conventional “qualified optimism” by giving analytical primacy to three countermeasures available to defeat THAAD–use of decoys, tumbling and spiral motion, and outnumbering. These countermeasures are relatively inexpensive to create but exceedingly difficult to offset. Second, we assess the optimal way to ensure South Korean national security against North Korean missiles. By examining the balance of capability and issues of credibility/commitment, we show that the U.S. extended deterrence by punishment remains plentiful and sufficiently credible even without enhancing the current defense capability.     

高超声速滑翔飞行器滑翔段初始状态的唯一性和最优性分析

临近空间高超声速滑翔飞行器的弹道特性主要受滑翔段初始状态和飞行器控制律影响。在飞行器控制律确定的情况下,研究了滑翔段初始状态对高超声速滑翔飞行器弹道特性的影响规律。按照滑翔弹道的不同形式,在纵向平衡滑翔条件下,通过理论推导得出飞行器状态变量的解析式,结合平衡滑翔条件分析平衡滑翔弹道滑翔段初始状态的唯一性;在纵向跳跃滑翔条件下,构建弹道性能评价指标,利用群智能算法,寻找弹道性能最优时的滑翔段初始状态。利用单因素敏感性分析方法,分别对两种滑翔弹道的滑翔段初始状态进行敏感性分析,初始状态中初始速度对弹道特性的影响最大。对高超声速滑翔飞行器初始状态唯一性与最优性的分析,可为高超声速滑翔飞行器的弹道设计、弹道跟踪、轨迹预测和轨迹优化提供借鉴。     

Reforming the bras tendus? The Congolese National Police reforms, 2003–2016

The security sector reform (SSR) programme in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has failed, according to a former high-level member of the United Nations (UN) mission in the DRC, as a large section of the country remains outside government control, and the security institutions of the state continue to constitute one of the predominant sources of insecurity for the local population in a number of ways. Based on several field studies, this article critically scrutinises the SSR of the Congolese National Police (Police nationale congolaise; PNC) and the efforts to reform it between 2004 and 2016. It further attempts to explain why so little progress was made in the SSR of the PNC, despite extensive involvement from donors. The article shows that the instrumental and traditional approach to SSR is partly to blame, because in this case it failed to address the root problems and initiate the needed fundamental reform and reconstruction of the police force. It also shows that reforming local security institutions becomes even more difficult when the local authorities do not support the effort.