基于D-S推理的灰关联通信电台识别研究

为了解决通信电台识别问题,在灰关联识别的过程中,引入D-S证据理论,通过对信号的积累和对信任度的重新分配,对识别结果进行了有效的融合,提高了辐射源的正确识别率。仿真结果表明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

毛泽东对抗日战争进程和结局的科学分析与预测——纪念七七卢沟桥事变70周年

今年是七七卢沟桥事变70周年。70年前,在国难当头,民族危亡之时,中国共产党带领全国人民浴血奋战。毛泽东以他伟大的军事家的远见卓识,在延安窑洞的灯光下运筹帷幄,奋笔疾书,谱写了一篇篇闪光的抗战军事著作。在这些著作中,毛泽东深刻地分析、科学地预测了抗日战争的进程和最终的战局。正是这些英明正确的军事理论指引着中国人民夺取了抗日战争的伟大胜利。今天,处在和平发展时期的每一位中国人都应重温历史,勿忘国耻,珍爱和平,开创未来。     

Purchase and retrieval competition for seasonal produce

We study the competition problem of purchase and multiretrieval of perishable seasonal produce, where wholesalers purchase and stock their products in the first period, and then retrieve and sell them in subsequent periods. We first consider the duopoly case and assume that the prices are exogenous and fluctuate. In each period, after the price realization, the wholesalers retrieve some stock from their warehouses to satisfy their demands. One wholesaler's unsatisfied customers can switch to another and be satisfied by its left retrieved products. Any unsold retrieved stock has no salvage value and any unsatisfied demand is lost. The unretrieved stock is carried to the next period at a perishable rate. The wholesalers compete for the substitute demand by determining their own purchase and retrieval quantities. We show the existence and uniqueness of a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium, and that the Nash equilibrium strategy has the simple “sell-down-to” structure. We also consider the general N-person game and show the existence of the Nash equilibrium, and characterize the structure of the equilibrium strategy for the symmetric case. In addition, we consider the case with endogenous prices, and show that the problem reduces to a repeated newsvendor game with price and inventory competition. We derive the conditions under which a unique Nash equilibrium exists and characterize the equilibrium strategy. Finally, we conduct numerical studies to examine the impacts of the model parameters on the equilibrium outcomes and to generate managerial insights.     

基于排队论的舰空导弹武器系统反导射击效能模型

舰空导弹是当前海上防空的主要装备。因此,评估舰空导弹武器系统的射击效能,使舰空导弹击毁目标概率达到最大化,是防御中所要考虑的核心问题。运用了排队论的方法,建立了在目标单方向和多方向等情况下的射击效能模型,并通过统计运算得到了某型舰空导弹武器系统在各种条件下相对全面的射击效能数据,解决了各型舰空导弹武器系统射击效能评估的问题,对舰空导弹武器系统的作战使用有一定的参考价值。     

用线性兴波阻力理论计算穿浪双体船的兴波阻力

以线性兴波阻力理论 (薄船理论 )Michell型兴波阻力计算公式为基础 ,结合穿浪双体船的船型特点 ,建立了一次和二次简化的Michell型兴波阻力计算公式 ,并以此简化公式计算了某穿浪双体船WPC×××的兴波阻力 .将计算结果与马丁法计算结果进行了比较 ,并探讨了兴波阻力规律及片体间距对WPC兴波阻力的影响规律 .     

基于磨损的柴油机性能灰色预测

柴油机性能传统的预测方法需要大量的统计数据,在数据较少的情况下无法使用.文中对磨损与漏气量的关系以及漏气量对柴油机性能的影响进行了分析,基于一组磨损与漏气量的数据,采用灰色预测理论对柴油机性能进行了预测.结果表明,预测值与实测值两者基本一致.     

Age replacement policies in two time scales

We develop and estimate optimal age replacement policies for devices whose age is measured in two time scales. For example, the age of a jet engine can be measured in the number of flight hours and the number of landings. Under a single‐scale age replacement policy, a device is replaced at age τ or upon failure, whichever occurs first. We show that a natural generalization to two scales is to replace nonfailed devices when their usage path crosses the boundary of a two‐dimensional region M, where M is a lower set with respect to the matrix partial order. For lifetimes measured in two scales, we consider devices that age along linear usage paths. We generalize the single‐scale long‐run average cost, estimate optimal two‐scale policies, and give an example. We note that these policies are strongly consistent estimators of the true optimal policies under mild conditions, and study small‐sample behavior using simulation. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 592–613, 2003.     

潜艇结构设计的现状和展望

1983年以来国际上举行了多次有关潜艇的学术会议,发表了多篇有关潜艇结构设计的重要论文。本文以此为背景,论述国外目前采用的潜艇结构设计方法—确定性方法,讨论可靠性理论应用于潜艇结构设计,指出在潜艇结构设计中可靠性理论将取代确定性方法。     

几何光学法用于飞机进气道 RCS 的计算

运用电磁场理论的几何光学法解决飞机进气道雷达截面(RCS)的计算。计算结果与实测值基本相符,使得复杂的飞机进气道雷达特性可以简化处理。此法既简单又严密。     

柔性长鳍扭波推进数学模型分析

以"尼罗河魔鬼"鱼的柔性长背鳍扭波推进模式为研究对象,通过观察活鱼的游动模式,提取影响扭波推进的运动学要素,建立了描述柔性长背鳍扭波推进时动态曲面的数学模型。研究了鳍条仰角与摆动规律对鳍面的影响。最后,用细长体理论分析并计算出推力分布。研究表明,鳍条仰角在φ=85°的情况下所形成的鳍面与垂直鳍条所形成的鳍面相比,其最大偏离值与鳍长之比为1.7%,可以用垂直于基线的鳍条制作模型;鳍条按正弦规律摆动时所形成的扭波波形鳍面与实鱼鳍面相似。