复合材料修补金属裂损结构吸湿老化的试验与有限元分析

暴露在湿热环境中的复合材料修补金属裂损结构易吸湿老化,导致该结构性能下降,服役寿命缩短。为研究吸湿性对复合材料修补金属裂损结构修补效果和耐久性的影响,利用试验方法分析了吸湿性对复合材料胶补金属裂损结构及胶黏剂力学性能的影响;利用有限元方法评估了吸湿性对复合材料胶补金属裂损结构试验件修补效果和耐久性的影响。研究结果表明:吸湿后含穿透双边裂纹铝合金板玻璃纤维单面胶补试验件的疲劳裂纹扩展寿命和极限载荷的平均值分别下降为吸湿前的71%和90%;吸湿造成拉伸条件下复合材料胶补金属裂损结构胶层失效模式由内聚破坏为主转变为界面破坏为主;在"湿-热"老化30天后,E44/聚酰胺环氧树脂胶黏剂试验件吸水饱和,弹性模量下降为未老化前的40%,塑性应变超过了总应变的25%;有限元分析发现胶层损伤受吸湿影响明显,吸湿性加速了胶层损伤,且裂纹长度越长,加速作用越明显;同时吸湿使得裂纹尖端的J积分值急剧增大,导致修补结构的疲劳裂纹扩展寿命缩短,裂纹长度越长,吸湿性对于复合材料胶接修补效果的危害越严重。     

采用3电平非均匀量化的脉冲编码策略

作为全数字发信机系统中广泛应用的一种脉冲编码技术,Delta-Sigma调制(Delta-Sigma Modulation, DSM)通过增加量化电平,能够实现调制性能的提升。但限于全数字发信机系统开关功放的具体结构,多电平DSM序列无法直接驱动后级功放电路。在传统3电平DSM基础上,通过引入面积等效原理和非均匀量化技术,提出了适用于开关功放的一种新的脉冲编码策略。理论分析和仿真结果表明,相比常规2电平DSM序列,采用该策略获得的调制脉冲序列具有更优的带内SNR和编码效率性能。     

腐蚀损伤下船体总纵极限强度可靠性分析方法探讨

针对腐蚀损伤下船体结构安全性评估问题,基于实船腐蚀勘验数据,引入非概率可靠性评估理论,提出舰艇现时状态下船体结构总纵极限强度非概率可靠性分析方法,建立船体结构非概率可靠性分析模型。对某舰艇船体结构现时状态下的总纵极限强度可靠性及非概率可靠性分析方法在船体结构安全状态评估方面的应用性进行了分析。结果表明:非概率可靠性分析方法克服了过度依赖样本数据的缺陷,较确定性方法更贴近客观实际,在舰艇船体结构技术状态评估方面具有较好的应用前景。     

Drone usage by militant groups: exploring variation in adoption

Judging by recent media reporting and pronouncements by senior US military and security officials, the use of drones by militant groups is both reshaping conflict between armed non-state actors and state parties and now presents a grave and direct threat to nations in the West and elsewhere. But does this threat warrant the attention it is currently receiving? To answer this question, this article surveys how various militant groups have used drones both tactically on the battlefield and for wider strategic purposes. Closely examining how drones have been employed and by whom provides a basis for understanding variation in adoption. The article shows how drone usage or non-usage is highly contingent on the setting of the conflict, the aims of different groups, and the capacity of groups to adopt the technology. Though advances in drone technology could make the use-case more appealing for militant groups, drones will be subject to the same back-and-forth, techno-tactical adaptation dynamic between adversaries that have accompanied prior military innovations.     

Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues,advancements, and ways forward

How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research.     

全寿命理论在油料装备科学化管理中的运用

运用全寿命理论对油料装备实施科学管理,能够节约各种经费投入,有效提高油料装备的管理效能,这对新时期军队油料装备的管理与建设具有深远意义。论述了油料装备全寿命管理的内涵和管理体系,重点分析了油料装备全寿命管理信息化与全寿命期经费管理问题,探讨了全寿命理论在油料装备科学化管理中的发展趋势。     

一种基于协调理论的军事决策过程建模方法

在分析协调理论应用的基础上,针对军事决策过程的建模,基于UML2.0的用例图,提出了基于协调理论的军事决策过程建模方法。应用该建模方法,有利于分析军事决策过程中的核心任务活动及其相关依赖,为指挥员实施平行决策,并发地制订和确定作战方案(Course of Action)提供依据,从而提高军事决策过程的适应性。     

Potential impact of recharging plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles on locational marginal prices

Plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), upon market penetration, will create additional recharging loads to the electric power systems. This article considers different recharging scenarios and uses game theoretic models to study the potential impact of the recharging loads on locational marginal prices (wholesale electricity prices). Computational results from a Pennsylvania‐New Jersey‐Maryland Interconnection case study show that, under the existing recharging infrastructures, even a small magnitude of load increase caused by PHEV recharging could have a significant undesirable impact on locational marginal prices. The impact could be mitigated to a varying extent by the availability of possible future recharging infrastructures, including realtime pricing recharging meters, battery stations, or vehicle‐to‐grid technology.© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

A bivariate optimal replacement policy for a cold standby repairable system with repair priority

In this article, an optimal replacement policy for a cold standby repairable system consisting of two dissimilar components with repair priority is studied. Assume that both Components 1 and 2, after repair, are not as good as new, and the main component (Component 1) has repair priority. Both the sequence of working times and that of the components'repair times are generated by geometric processes. We consider a bivariate replacement policy (T,N) in which the system is replaced when either cumulative working time of Component 1 reaches T, or the number of failures of Component 1 reaches N, whichever occurs first. The problem is to determine the optimal replacement policy (T,N)* such that the long run average loss per unit time (or simply the average loss rate) of the system is minimized. An explicit expression of this rate is derived, and then optimal policy (T,N)* can be numerically determined through a two‐dimensional‐search procedure. A numerical example is given to illustrate the model's applicability and procedure, and to illustrate some properties of the optimal solution. We also show that if replacements are made solely on the basis of the number of failures N, or solely on the basis of the cumulative working time T, the former class of policies performs better than the latter, albeit only under some mild conditions. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

基于灰色模糊理论的大型医院病房楼火灾风险评价

针对现阶段大型医院病房楼火灾频发,危害严重的现状,提出基于多级灰色模糊理论评价方法,利用此方法对大型医院病房楼火灾风险建立了评价指标体系,并对其进行了实例火灾风险分析。