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舰船机电系统在使用维修过程中所记录的故障数据通常质量不高,信息记录不完整、不准确。针对这类不完备数据,利用图示法给出故障趋势的判定。在此基础上,分别利用齐次泊松过程、非齐次泊松过程和几何过程,对装备的历史故障数据进行分析。结果表明,几何过程产生的拟合误差最小,可预测装备的未来故障强度。 相似文献
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在逐步type-II结尾场合下,研究产品简单步进应力加速寿命试验的优化设计。假定产品服从几何分布,讨论了几何分布产品加速方程如何建立,利用次序统计量的大样本性质,得到相应的Fisher信息矩阵,以对数特征寿命极大似然估计的渐进方差最小为准则结合Fisher信息矩阵,给出了步进应力加速寿命试验的最优分配比例,通过模拟验证最优设计的有效性。 相似文献
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Plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), upon market penetration, will create additional recharging loads to the electric power systems. This article considers different recharging scenarios and uses game theoretic models to study the potential impact of the recharging loads on locational marginal prices (wholesale electricity prices). Computational results from a Pennsylvania‐New Jersey‐Maryland Interconnection case study show that, under the existing recharging infrastructures, even a small magnitude of load increase caused by PHEV recharging could have a significant undesirable impact on locational marginal prices. The impact could be mitigated to a varying extent by the availability of possible future recharging infrastructures, including realtime pricing recharging meters, battery stations, or vehicle‐to‐grid technology.© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010 相似文献
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In this article, an optimal replacement policy for a cold standby repairable system consisting of two dissimilar components with repair priority is studied. Assume that both Components 1 and 2, after repair, are not as good as new, and the main component (Component 1) has repair priority. Both the sequence of working times and that of the components'repair times are generated by geometric processes. We consider a bivariate replacement policy (T,N) in which the system is replaced when either cumulative working time of Component 1 reaches T, or the number of failures of Component 1 reaches N, whichever occurs first. The problem is to determine the optimal replacement policy (T,N)* such that the long run average loss per unit time (or simply the average loss rate) of the system is minimized. An explicit expression of this rate is derived, and then optimal policy (T,N)* can be numerically determined through a two‐dimensional‐search procedure. A numerical example is given to illustrate the model's applicability and procedure, and to illustrate some properties of the optimal solution. We also show that if replacements are made solely on the basis of the number of failures N, or solely on the basis of the cumulative working time T, the former class of policies performs better than the latter, albeit only under some mild conditions. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010 相似文献
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王允 《中国人民武装警察部队学院学报》2010,(10):39-41
针对现阶段大型医院病房楼火灾频发,危害严重的现状,提出基于多级灰色模糊理论评价方法,利用此方法对大型医院病房楼火灾风险建立了评价指标体系,并对其进行了实例火灾风险分析。 相似文献