模糊理论与D-S理论在指控系统目标识别融合中的应用

多传感器信息融合技术已获得了普遍的关注和广泛的应用,其理论和方法已成为智能信息处理的一个重要领域,模糊理论与证据理论(D-S)是主要的技术之一.在某试飞指控系统中,为了获得可靠的识别结果需要目标识别的融合问题.系统的从实际出发提出了基于模糊理论与D-S理论的目标识别融合方法.仿真计算结果表明,该模型和方法具有方法简单、运算量小和识别结果可靠等优点,具有一定的理论意义和使用价值.     

基于多阶段博弈模拟的作战飞机零部件备用分析

从决策优化的角度出发,提出了一种利用多阶段博弈模拟来分析和解算作战飞机零部件备用的方法.该方法首先分析了多阶段博弈模拟在作战飞机零部件备用的应用,给出了最优化问题的总的目标函数一般形式.然后转换和简化所得到的最优化问题目标函数形式,从而有利于零部件备用的最优化解算.最后,给出了多阶段博弈模拟分析算法的主要步骤.仿真结果表明,这种方法解决了零部件使用模型问题求解的不精确的分析方法.将零部件使用周期作战飞机零部件备用看成一个整体来分析,符合未来网络中心战作战飞机零部件使用备份追求整体效能最大的思想.     

基于灰色关联法的飞行模拟器方案评估

对三个飞行训练模拟器方案进行灰色关联评估。根据装备效能分析原则,结合飞行训练模拟器组成结构的自身特点,确定了影响飞行训练模拟器效能的主要指标,建立了飞行模拟器效能评估体系,应用层次分析法,计算出各指标的权重,再利用灰色理论原理,对效能体系中主要指标进行了灰色综合评估,然后把灰色综合评估值与费用结合,确定评估矩阵,按照灰色关联法的步骤,计算出各方案与理想方案的关联度。结果是比较符合实际情况的,并且应用到某型飞行模拟器方案论证中。     

物元贝叶斯网络模型研究

分析了贝叶斯网络建模过程中的缺陷,结合物元理论,提出了物元贝叶斯网络理论.该理论能够融合二者的优点,既可处理复杂系统中的不确定性,又能充分利用系统中的所有信息,因此能够更好地进行复杂系统评价.     

数字化部队作战能力评估指标体系

为加深对数字化部队作战能力的研究,完善数字化部队的编制体制,以系统科学与工程理论为指导,针对现代战争系统的四大要素对现代战争全过程进行分析,构建数字化部队战争系统模型分解图,将现代战争系统分解成部队与武器子系统、电子信息子系统、决策指挥子系统、后勤保障子系统.最后对各子系统的能力指标内涵及构成进行了详细的解释,并对其获取和度量方法进行了总结.     

灰色理论GRA模型在舰船生命力论证中的应用

运用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联分析法对舰船生命力进行了综合评判,建立了在不同设计方案中的优选模型,并以舰艇动力系统的设计为例,运用GRA对其进行优化选型。结果分析表明,此方法简单易行,结果准确可靠,可为系统设计方案的选优提供理论依据。     

空天防御作战规划问题研究

从技术与作战结合的角度,系统分析空天防御作战系统和对抗特点等问题,构建了"态势组态—目标排序—目标分配—冲突动态最优预测"新型作战规划方法,提出"博弈控制理论与方法",论述了空天防御作战规划方法论。对空天防御作战规划理论研究有一定参考价值,为发展空天防御作战规划系统提供了研究思路和技术支撑。     

基于前景理论和证据推理的混合型多属性决策方法

针对属性权重完全未知的混合型多属性决策问题,提出一种基于前景理论和证据推理的决策方法。通过直觉模糊数对精确数、区间数和语言变量3种混合型属性的决策信息进行统一,根据前景理论对决策信息进行转化;提出基于直觉模糊熵与相似度的属性可靠性评估方法,结合属性重要度确定属性权重;采用证据推理算法集结属性信息,得到方案的综合前景值,并以此进行方案排序。算例分析结果表明,所提方法具有较强的区分能力,能够有效降低决策结果的不确定性,对混合型多属性决策问题具有较好的适用性。     

The struggle of a Kantian power in a Lockean world – German leadership in security and defence policy

ABSTRACT

German security and defence policy has undergone substantial transformation. This transformation requires an unprecedented level of political leadership, suggesting that Germany needs to solve the dilemma of how to supply leadership to increasingly demanding partners. What are the conditions under which German leadership can unfold in security and defence policy? To what degree do German role-conceptions of international agency and role-expectations of German leadership coincide? What kind of leadership outputs are produced? This study offers a comprehensive analysis of German security and defence policy in terms of supply (role conceptions) and demand (role expectations). We outline three leadership role conceptions present in the German strategic debate, which we then assess in the context of the Wendtian theory of cultures of anarchy. We then analyse Berlin's leadership in terms of outputs via the case study on Anchor Army and the Framework Nations Concept. We conclude that while Germany has tried to match leadership role expectations both rhetorically and in action, Berlin's leadership inputs have so far been insufficient. This has led to an imbalance in terms of role conceptions and expectations hampering effective German leadership in security and defence policy.     

Moving Beyond Population-Centric vs. Enemy-Centric Counterinsurgency

Historically, insurgency is one of the most prevalent forms of armed conflict and it is likely to remain common in the foreseeable future. Recent experiences with counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan offer many lessons for future counterinsurgents, but the discourse on the subject continues to be mired in a traditional dichotomy pitting population-centric approaches to counterinsurgency against enemy-centric approaches. Historical analysis suggests that this traditional dichotomy is not a sufficiently nuanced way to understand or plan for such operations. Instead, discussions of counterinsurgency should focus on two dimensions: actions (use of physical force vs. political or moral actions) and targets (active insurgents vs. insurgent support). This perspective divides the space of possible counterinsurgency efforts into four quadrants, suggesting that effective counterinsurgency campaigns find a balance of effort across the four quadrants that is well matched to the specific context.