舰载指控系统一体化仿真研究

本文提出了舰载指控系统一体化仿真体系结构,其一体化仿真模型用到了诸如面向对象、数据库、可视化等技术,具有较好的人机交互界面,能实现作战模拟、评价作战方案等。     

目标自动跟踪与信息处理综合系统的研究与实现

根据将目标自动跟踪与信息处理综合的思想,在目标自动跟踪与信息处理综合的实现方面作了大量工作,并进行了实验.实验结果表明,只有在自动跟踪系统中综合目标信息处理,火控系统性能才能有质的提高.同时,数字信号处理(DSP)技术、自适应滤波算法的应用,使得系统设计能够基本达到实际应用的阶段.     

论城市公共安全管理网络平台的建设

针对城市的快速发展,各种突发性自然灾害或人为破坏事件增多,在充分分析城市公共安全管理现状的基础上,提出了城市公共安全管理网络平台建设,并对其总体结构,各自功能,技术、政策支持及运行模式进行了深入论述。     

网络化指挥信息系统战场信息收集能力

为了定量评价网络化指挥信息系统建设对体系作战能力的提升效果,以战场信息收集能力研究为切入点,运用集合论、图论等理论,通过获取的战场信息对作战需求的满足程度的影响因素分析,建立了战场信息收集能力的量化模型,给出了模型求解方法。通过案例计算分析,验证了模型的有效性,说明了提高战场信息收集能力的有效途径。     

基于复合CBR的炮兵侦察情报处理系统模型研究

本文针对当前炮兵侦察情报处理系统工作现状,指出了现有侦察情报处理系统所存在的问题和局限性,利用人工智能中的基于案例推理技术,建立起基于复合案例推理的炮兵侦察情报处理系统的模型。该模型详细地描述了炮兵侦察情报处理过程,克服了现有基于规则推理系统不易扩展和修改的弊端,具备更好的处理效果。     

The impact of demand uncertainty on product line design under endogenous substitution

The existing product line design literature devotes little attention to the effect of demand uncertainty. Due to demand uncertainty, the supply‐demand mismatch is inevitable which leads to different degrees of lost sales depending on the configuration of product lines. In this article, we adopt a stylized two‐segment setup with uncertain market sizes and illustrate the interplay between two effects: risk pooling that mitigates the impact of demand uncertainty and market segmentation that facilitates consumer differentiation. Compared to downward substitution, inducing bidirectional substitution through product line decisions including quality levels and prices can yield greater risk pooling effects. However, we show that the additional benefit from the risk pooling effect cannot compensate for the reduced market segmentation effect. We demonstrate that the presence of demand uncertainty can reduce the benefit of market segmentation and therefore the length of product lines in terms of the difference between products. We also propose three heuristics that separate product line and production decisions; each of these heuristics corresponds to one particular form of demand substitution. Our numerical studies indicate that the best of the three heuristics yields performance that is close to optimality. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 143–157, 2015     

The impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect

An important phenomenon often observed in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip effect, implies that demand variability increases as one moves up the supply chain, i.e., as one moves away from customer demand. In this paper we quantify this effect for simple, two‐stage, supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. We demonstrate that the use of an exponential smoothing forecast by the retailer can cause the bullwhip effect and contrast these results with the increase in variability due to the use of a moving average forecast. We consider two types of demand processes, a correlated demand process and a demand process with a linear trend. We then discuss several important managerial insights that can be drawn from this research. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 269–286, 2000     

一种改进的证据理论合成规则

随着证据理论在信息融合领域中的广泛应用,对冲突证据的处理成为证据理论和应用研究热点。提出了一种基于证据重要度和聚焦度的新的合成规则,首先根据各个证据的重要度对冲突证据进行修正,再对冲突进行细化并考虑证据焦元的基数对D-S合成法则的影响,将冲突信息提取后加入组合规则中。通过实验比较和分析,结果说明该方法不仅能够处理一般性冲突问题,也能处理"一票否决"和"鲁棒性"问题。     

计算机网络战防御技术分析

针对未来信息化战争中计算机网络易受攻击的问题,探讨了网络战防御体系结构,分析了防御体系各组成部分间关系和整个体系的管理模式;依照防御体系重点,对主要的防御技术进行了归纳和描述;指出对众多的网络防御技术采用集成和综合运用的意义,介绍了几种主要的系统集成方式。     

基于模糊层次分析法的战役情报效能评估

战役情报是组织实施战役所需的军事情报,运用模糊层次分析法对战役情报的效能进行评估,可以对军队情报工作产生一定程度的导向作用,进而促使增强情报工作的针对性,优化情报工作流程和资源配置。模糊层次分析法具有较高的科学性和客观性,计算方法简单、使用方便,通过应用实例表明模糊层次分析法对于衡量某特定情报集在战役中的支持力度具有一定的参考价值。