武器系统研制单位管理水平的贝叶斯评估分析

将Bayes理论应用于对武器系统研制单位管理水平的评估.克服了验前评估方法主观性大的缺陷,充分利用收集到的补充信息,对评估结果作了后验预分析,得到了更加可信的评估结论,从而改进了决策过程.     

适用于北斗混合星座的相对定位随机模型建模策略

为提高模糊度解算成功率和基线解精度,提出适用于北斗的相对定位随机模型建模策略,即混合随机建模策略。采用最小二乘方差分量估计方法对北斗单差观测量方差进行估计。对处于不同高度的三轨道卫星观测量方差分别建模:对地球静止轨道卫星观测量方差采用载噪比模型建模,对倾斜地球同步轨道卫星和中地球轨道卫星观测量方差均采用仰角模型建模。根据不同模型实时组建观测量的随机模型。试验结果表明:相比于采用传统简化模型和单一的仰角或载噪比模型,混合随机模型能更加真实地反映不同卫星观测量的随机噪声特性,模糊度解算成功率和相对定位精度均有提高,总体性能最优,因而能更好地适用于北斗系统。     

北斗系统新民用导航电文历书参数算法与性能分析

研究新公布的北斗民用导航电文中的两类历书与北斗二号导航电文历书的差异,对比分析各类历书对接收机首次定位时间的影响。利用实际的历书数据,比较不同历书类型的用户算法,分析不同龄期数据对接收机首次定位性能的影响。结果表明,高精度历书在1周的数据龄期内性能较为稳定,中等精度历书精度稍逊于高精度历书,但由于简化了电文空间,能接近高精度历书性能。简约历书进一步简化了参数数目和电文空间,尽管位置误差达到了数百千米,但却能在数月之后保持相应精度,有利于缩短接收机首次定位时间。     

Merely ‘Docile Self-Deception’? German Experiences with Nuclear Consultation in NATO

ABSTRACT

Recent nuclear-weapons-related consultation in NATO within the framework of the Defence and Deterrence Posture Review sheds light on historical experiences with nuclear consultation in NATO. In the early years of the Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), which became the main forum for multilateral nuclear consultation in the alliance, developing a nuclear weapons first use doctrine was of particular importance. This process led to the adoption of the Provisional Political Guidelines (PPGs) on the threat to initiate the use of nuclear weapons. With a focus on West Germany as the primary addressee of the NPG, it will be postulated that nuclear consultation functioned and may still be seen as an essential tool to manage the credibility of US extended nuclear deterrence in the framework of NATO.     

The fateful phoenix: the revival of Al-Qa’ida in Iraq

Although the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is seen as a novel manifestation of Islamic extremism, it is in fact the latest, albeit perhaps the most effective, of a long line of revivalist movements in the Islamic and the Arab worlds. Its motivations – hisba and jihad – differ little from its predecessors and its ambitions – to create a state organised in accordance with the precepts of the Islamic caliphate – reflect a long-standing Islamic ambition. It differs, of course, in terms of the sophistication of its political and military strategies, which mirror the contemporary complexities of the world in which it operates, but its objectives recall long-standing Islamic ideals, even if articulated in radically brutal and extremist ways. More importantly, perhaps, ISIS or Da’ish, to give it its Arabic sobriquet, reflects the enormous degree of resentment inside the Middle East at the ways in which Western powers have intervened in regional affairs over recent years, particularly their support for regimes and economic systems there that have betrayed, in the popular imaginary, the essential principles of social justice that lie at the root of Islamic vision of ideal social order. Indeed, in many respects, its analysis of the world in which it operates and of the objectives it seeks differ little in essence from those any other resistance and rejectionist movement, whether religious or sectarian. More specifically, it has been the sectarian conflict that resulted from the reversal of political order in Iraq as a result of the 2003 American-led invasion that has driven the success of the movement in capturing widespread Sunni support. Whether it can manage the complexities of the administration of a state remains open to question.     

高精度有限体积格式在三维曲线坐标系下的应用

为了构造在光滑区具有较高分辨率并且可以无振荡捕捉激波的高精度有限体积格式,同时降低格式在模板选择上遇到的困难,基于逐维重构方法,发展了结构网格下的高精度有限体积格式,并将这一格式推广到三维曲线坐标系下,从而可以适应相对复杂外形下的计算。为充分验证格式的有效性,选取一系列典型算例进行计算:在等熵涡输运和二维喷管流动中验证了格式的精度可以达到设计精度;在双马赫反射问题中格式也表现出良好的捕捉激波的能力。数值计算表明,上述格式在曲线网格上具有较高的数值精度和鲁棒的激波捕捉能力,适用于流体力学方程的计算。     

有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估及保障方案优化

备件库存和站点维修能力是影响备件维修周转的重要因素,制约装备使用效果。针对备件需求随任务阶段动态变化的装备保障方案评估和优化问题,考虑站点维修能力对备件维修过程的影响,结合METRIC建模方法和动态排队理论,建立了有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估模型。在评估模型基础之上,以保障费用为优化目标,装备可用度为约束条件,建立了任务期内多级保障系统保障方案优化模型。以任务期内的最低可用度所对应的备件短缺数为观测值,分析了各项资源的边际效益值,采用边际优化算法对各项资源进行优化计算。算例分析表明,评估模型能够计算多级保障系统任务期内各阶段装备可用度;保障方案优化模型和方法能够得到各项保障资源的优化配置方案。提出的模型和优化方法能够为装备保障人员制定合理的保障方案提供决策支持。     

动态滑翔运动建模、机理分析与航迹优化

信天翁凭借动态滑翔的飞行技巧从梯度风中获取能量,从而在几乎不拍翅膀的情况下进行长时间、长距离飞行,这种技巧应用于小型无人机上可拓展其完成任务的能力。基于飞行器动力学对梯度风场中的无人机运动方程进行推导和简化处理;利用简化的运动方程,分别从非惯性参考系中的动能定理和机械能变化的角度,对动态滑翔获取能量的机理进行分析;利用微分平坦法,以最小平均控制输入变化率为目标函数,对徘徊模式和平移模式的动态滑翔航迹进行优化计算。分析结果表明:逆风爬升、顺风下滑是动态滑翔基本获能方式。优化结果表明:控制输入变得更加平滑,甚至出现阶段性的常值,使得控制更加简化;徘徊模式下,当风梯度作为决策变量时,优化过程可在[0,0.5 s-1]的区间上找到使得目标函数值最小的风梯度;平移模式下,目标函数值在该区间上单调递减。     

0.18 μm CMOS工艺的GPS/BDS双模可重构接收机射频前端

采用低中频架构设计了一种0.18μm CMOS工艺的GPS/BDS双模可重构接收机射频前端,能在GPS L1模式或BDS B1模式下工作。通过频率自适应电路调整中频滤波器的时间常数,降低其频率不确定度;压控振荡器中加入4位开关电容阵列,以提高频率调谐范围和相位噪声性能;通过硬件复用的方式降低系统功耗。测试结果表明,在1.8 V电源电压下,功耗37.8 m W,电压增益为103 d B,GPS L1和BDS B1波段噪声系数均小于3.2 d B。     

子空间投影后波束形成的导航接收机抗干扰性能分析

利用导航信号淹没于干扰信号和热噪声的特点,将天线阵列接收的空时信号矢量向干扰子空间的正交子空间投影以实现干扰抑制。当接收机对投影后的单阵元数据捕获成功后,利用捕获估计的本地扩频码相位作为参考信号,依据最小均方误差准则进行波束形成。仿真结果表明该抗干扰算法在零陷强干扰的同时使主波束指向导航信号来波方向,有效提高了阵列输出信干噪比,并降低了空时自适应处理对导航信号伪码相关峰形状和载波跟踪性能的影响。