Moving Beyond Population-Centric vs. Enemy-Centric Counterinsurgency

Historically, insurgency is one of the most prevalent forms of armed conflict and it is likely to remain common in the foreseeable future. Recent experiences with counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan offer many lessons for future counterinsurgents, but the discourse on the subject continues to be mired in a traditional dichotomy pitting population-centric approaches to counterinsurgency against enemy-centric approaches. Historical analysis suggests that this traditional dichotomy is not a sufficiently nuanced way to understand or plan for such operations. Instead, discussions of counterinsurgency should focus on two dimensions: actions (use of physical force vs. political or moral actions) and targets (active insurgents vs. insurgent support). This perspective divides the space of possible counterinsurgency efforts into four quadrants, suggesting that effective counterinsurgency campaigns find a balance of effort across the four quadrants that is well matched to the specific context.     

钢球侵彻不同靶标的相似性分析

为研究相同弹丸侵彻不同靶标所造成损伤之间的相似性,以钢球侵彻明胶造成的瞬时空腔的最大直径为研究对象,基于相似理论推导出瞬时空腔最大直径的相似准则方程,利用钢球侵彻明胶的实验数据求解出准则方程的系数和指数,最后通过钢球侵彻猪后腿实验验证了所得到的准则方程可用于不同靶标之间的相似性分析,并具有准确性和合理性。     

基于端点梯形白化权函数的飞机保障性灰色评估

保障性评估是提高飞机保障性的有效手段。从保障性的定义出发,构建了飞机保障性评估指标体系,在利用层次分析法(AHP)确定指标权重的基础上,对三角白化权函数进行了改进,建立了基于端点梯形白化权函数灰色评估模型,很好地解决了相邻的若干类别对该类别聚类中心的影响问题,并将其应用于飞机保障性的评估,通过实例分析,验证了此评估方法的可行性,对提升飞机保障性评估的准确性有一定的参考价值。     

Rose-tinted lenses: how American functionalist strategy inhibits our appreciation of complex conflicts

Strategists and military professionals have previously questioned many of the methodological (theoretical underpinnings, the principles, and rules applied by the discipline) decisions associated with American military strategy, but the direction this essay takes is above and beyond the common methodological rivalries in how we pursue strategic desired future states. To get beyond methodological disputes entirely, we must consider thinking about our thinking as an organization on American strategy. Thus, this article hovers between philosophies, organizational theory, as well as our usually unquestioned belief in something called “strategy”. Questioning things about our basic understanding of the world tends to trigger strong organizational defense mechanisms, for good reason. Critical reflection at deep levels puts our worldview, and our role within it at stake. Nonetheless, as strategic disappointment emerges over multiple complex conflict developments, even the most cherished and guarded choices on how the world ought to work are ripe for critical inquiry. This essay examines the limited single strategic paradigm of the US defense industry and how the latest American National Security Strategy and Army Future Operating Concept (Win in a Complex World through 2030) presents a flawed strategic position. This essay presents valid alternative strategies that operate within different paradigmatic constructs.     

‘Look like the innocent flower,but be the serpent under’t’: mimicking behaviour of growth-oriented terrorist organizations

This paper examines the interaction between a growth-oriented terrorist organization and an uninformed government based on a two-period signalling game. Combining the signalling game and organizational growth approaches of previous contributions, this paper shows that, if a terrorist group follows a growth strategy, it has an incentive to appear weaker than it is by mimicking the behaviour of a smaller organization. Depending on its beliefs about the extent of the terrorist threat, it can be optimal for a government to spend more on second-period counter-terrorism measures if it is not attacked in the first period than if it were attacked.     

Models of sensor operations for border surveillance

This article is motivated by the diverse array of border threats, ranging from terrorists to arms dealers and human traffickers. We consider a moving sensor that patrols a certain section of a border with the objective to detect infiltrators who attempt to penetrate that section. Infiltrators arrive according to a Poisson process along the border with a specified distribution of arrival location, and disappear a random amount of time after their arrival. The measures of effectiveness are the target (infiltrator) detection rate and the time elapsed from target arrival to target detection. We study two types of sensor trajectories that have constant endpoints, are periodic, and maintain constant speed: (1) a sensor that jumps instantaneously from the endpoint back to the starting‐point, and (2) a sensor that moves continuously back and forth. The controlled parameters (decision variables) are the starting and end points of the patrolled sector and the velocity of the sensor. General properties of these trajectories are investigated. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

杂合数据的粗糙集属性约简方法

针对决策表中属性取值为杂合数据的情况,提出了基于粗糙集理论的属性约简算法.首先给出了对象间在杂合数据下的相似度计算定义.为了获取合理的对象集合的软划分,给出了阈值计算的最优化模型,并基于粗糙集的上、下近似的概念,得到对象集合在条件属性下的上、下近似的覆盖划分.之后,通过各对象基于条件属性和决策属性的上、下近似下的分布矩阵描述,利用最大分布矩阵,直观地得到两种不同观点下的约简结果.实验结果表明了本算法的合理和有效性.     

C~4KISR系统集成的一体化价值

结合当前军事指挥理论的发展,首先概述了C4KISR系统的发展现状,列举了C4KISR 4个重要组成部分的功能作用.其次论述了C4KISR系统与一体化的关系,分析了C4KISR系统集成的一体化实质,指出部队进行信息化建设的根本目的是要加强整体协同作战能力,寻求全局最优的策略.最后从排队论的角度,对C4KISR系统集成的一体化价值进行了量化对比分析,对比计算的结果显示:实现一体化集成的C4KISR系统的各项指标明显优于集成前的各单个子系统的各项指标,从侧面揭示了信息化在新军事变革中的重大现实意义.     

基于灰色理论的鱼雷装载可靠性分析

为解决在鱼雷装载可靠度试验数据较少的情况下进行装载可靠性分析困难的问题,利用灰色系统理论及 GM(1,2)建模的思想,研究了鱼雷装载可靠度和工作可靠度之间的灰色关系,基于灰色系统理论建立了两者之间关系的数学模型.计算实例表明,该方法简单实用,可在鱼雷装载可靠度数据样本量较少的情况下对鱼雷装戢可靠度进行有效预测,为鱼雷装载可靠度的评定提供了理论参考.     

装备保障训练系统设计理论研究综述

对美军装备保障训练系统的设计理论、方法进行了研究与综述,对国内相关研究进行了总结。针对我军装备保障训练系统设计中存在的不足,提出了装备保障训练系统设计理论研究应着重解决的问题。