基于二维雷达组网目标高度定位算法

讨论了通过二维雷达组网的方式可对目标高度进行估计,并对所求出的高度进行了误差分析,通过仿真得到了目标高度和方位角对高度误差的影响。在实际中由雷达站和指挥所的经度、纬度和海拔,可将雷达站测得目标的信息转化到以指挥所为原点的直角坐标系中,为指挥员提供空情,以便进行决策和指挥。     

虚拟仪器水压仿真器液压站测试系统方案设计

水压仿真器是水下武器半实物仿真系统中模拟水下航行器航行深度变化的设备,其中液压泵站作为液压能源机构提供一定压力、流量的油液。为了对液压泵站系统运行进行动态监测,设计了一种基于虚拟仪器的水压仿真器液压泵站的测试系统方案,应用新型模型化仪器测量标准PXI总线系统,可充分利用计算机软硬件资源,完成液压系统压力和流量的智能化跟踪检测和信号分析,具有强大的人机交互和数据处理功能。     

战争设计工程中从定量到定性反思的方法

定性定量相结合是战争设计工程的技术基础,为了探讨定性定量相结合中的如何从定量到定性进行反思,提出了定量评价干预策略的一致性检验方法;研究了从定量到定性反思的实现方法。最后以一个实例说明了整个从定量到定性进行反思的过程,并证实该反思方法是有效可行的。     

线性模型的海基制导系统误差分离方法性能分析

利用传统制导工具系统误差线性回归模型,对Bayes估计、主成分分析以及正则化分析三种改进的分离方法进行了比较,分析了它们在工程应用上的优缺点,给出了实际应用时的限制因素;同时结合海基导弹特有的初始状态误差,设计了整体估计、分段估计以及迭代估计三种估计策略,给出了相应的分离步骤。仿真结果表明,文中给出的三种误差分离方法在不同的评价标准下具有不同的实际应用意义;而在弹道差评价标准以及方差评价标准下,分段估计和迭代估计策略下的误差分离结果要明显好于传统整体估计结果。     

备件保障效能动态评估方法

针对目前效能评估方法多重视效能指标的静态观测值,对时序状态数据所蕴含的趋势信息关注较少的缺点,提出基于灰色聚类-粗糙集和集对分析的备件保障效能动态评估方法。针对主客观赋权方法各自的优缺点,引入依赖度和重要度的概念,建立灰色聚类-粗糙集组合赋权模型;将指标权重引入集对理论,提出集对同势、均势和反势的定义,描述备件保障效能的变化规律,构建基于马尔可夫链的集对分析动态模型。实例分析结果表明,该方法可以有效反映备件保障效能的动态变化特征,为决策者制定备件保障长期计划提供科学依据。     

Sensitivity analysis on responsive pricing and production under imperfect demand updating

This paper examines three types of sensitivity analysis on a firm's responsive pricing and responsive production strategies under imperfect demand updating. Demand has a multiplicative form where the market size updates according to a bivariate normal model. First, we show that both responsive production and responsive pricing resemble the classical pricing newsvendor with posterior demand uncertainty in terms of the optimal performance and first‐stage decision. Second, we show that the performance of responsive production is sensitive to the first‐stage decision, but responsive pricing is insensitive. This suggests that a “posterior rationale” (ie, using the optimal production decision from the classical pricing newsvendor with expected posterior uncertainty) allows a simple and near‐optimal first‐stage production heuristic for responsive pricing. However, responsive production obtains higher expected profits than responsive pricing under certain conditions. This implies that the firm's ability to calculate the first‐stage decision correctly can help determine which responsive strategy to use. Lastly, we find that the firm's performance is not sensitive to the parameter uncertainty coming from the market size, total uncertainty level and information quality, but is sensitive to uncertainty originating from the procurement cost and price‐elasticity.     

同轴环缝气流作用下锥形液膜线性稳定性分析

为了分析气液同轴离心式喷嘴的雾化机理,对同轴气体作用下的锥形液膜进行时间稳定性分析,推导同轴气体作用下锥形液膜的色散方程,建立离心式喷嘴出口参数预测模型,用于数值求解色散方程。结果表明：喷嘴出口液膜厚度随着喷注压降的增加而减小,喷雾锥角、液膜速度和轴向速度随着喷注压降的增加而增大。同轴气体作用下液膜由正弦模式的表面波主导,因为正弦模式的表面波增长率远大于曲张模式的表面波增长率。当环缝气体喷注速度较小时,增加气体速度会减小气液相对速度,从而减弱气液相互作用,使得液膜主导表面波增长率和频率减小、破碎时间和破碎长度增加。而当环缝气体速度超过一个临界值后,随着气体速度的增大,液膜主导表面波增长率和频率迅速增大,破碎时间和破碎长度迅速减小。     

零压式高空气球球形设计与参数敏感性分析

高空气球能够为临近空间科学实验提供可靠的平台,其形状直接关系到气球制作及飞行的全过程。提出将多段打靶法与序列二次规划法结合,对零压气球完全膨胀和部分膨胀状态下的球形进行求解,并运用有限元方法对球形进行稳定性及应力应变分析,验证了所推导球形的正确性。在此基础上,对影响气球形状的关键参数进行灵敏度分析及相关运用,从定量的角度得到气球载荷、飞行高度及昼夜温差对气球形状的影响规律。     

高精度CFD程序的内外子区域划分异构并行算法

对计算流体力学(Computational Fluid Dynamics, CFD)程序CNS提出一种Offload模式下对任务内外子区域划分的异构并行算法,结合结构化网格下有限差分计算和四阶龙格-库塔方法的特点,引入ghost网格点区域,设计了一种ghost区域收缩计算策略,显著降低了异构计算资源之间的数据传输开销,负载均衡时CPU端的计算与MPI通信完全和加速器端的计算重叠,提高了异构协同并行性。推导了保证计算正确性的ghost区域的参数,分析了负载均衡的条件。在"CPU(Intel Haswell Xeon E5-2670 12 cores×2)+加速器(Xeon Phi 7120A×2)"的服务器上测得该算法较直接将任务子块整体迁至加速器端计算的异构算法性能平均提升至5.9倍,较MPI/OpenMP两级并行算法使用24个纯CPU核的性能,该算法使用单加速器时加速至1.27倍,使用双加速器加速至1.45倍。讨论和分析了性能瓶颈与存在的问题。     

Fulfillment by Amazon versus fulfillment by seller: An interpretable risk-adjusted fulfillment model

With dual-channel choices, E-retailers fulfill their demands by either the inventory stored in third-party distribution centers, or by in-house inventory. In this article, using data from a wedding gown E-retailer in China, we analyze the differences between two fulfillment choices—fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) and fulfillment by seller (FBS). In particular, we want to understand the impact of FBA that will bring to sales and profit, compared to FBS, and how the impact is related to product features such as sizes and colors. We develop a risk-adjusted fulfillment model to address this problem, where the E-retailer's risk attitude to FBA is incorporated. We denote the profit gaps between FBA and FBS as the rewards for this E-retailer fulfilling products using FBA, our goal is to maximize the E-retailer's total rewards using predictive analytics. We adopt the generalized linear model to predict the expected rewards, while controlling for the variability of the reward distribution. We apply our model on a set of real data, and develop an explicit decision rule that can be easily implemented in practice. The numerical experiments show that our interpretable decision rule can improve the E-retailer's total rewards by more than 35%.