大射程高弹道反舰导弹威胁概率计算方法

在导弹飞行试验中,为了防止导弹在故障情况下威胁航区周围保护目标,试验方案设计时必须进行飞行试验安全分析计算,以确保故障弹对保护目标的威胁概率小于一定的安全标准。对反舰导弹故障模式进行了归纳总结,对各种故障模式下的导弹落点散布进行了分析,针对某一特定理论弹道,进行了故障弹威胁概率密度计算,通过对计算结果分析,说明该方法的可行性和正确性。     

用于任务规划的航母编队防空威胁建模

建立正确的航母编队防空威胁模型是反航母任务规划成功的前提,在分析网络化条件下航母编队综合防空反导体系作战特点基础上,综合考虑反舰导弹性能、防空雷达网和编队防空火力威胁等因素,利用加权指数方法建立了网络化条件下航母编队综合防空网络威胁模型。仿真结果表明该模型能够体现航母网络化防空体系的真实情况,可以用于反航母任务规划。     

过航点舰载弹炮结合武器系统发射判定模型

针对基于过航点对弹炮结合武器系统进行火力分配中未求解过航点坐标和未考虑毁伤概率等因素,以及基于勾径点模型对弹炮结合武器进行火力分配方法过于简化、未充分考虑武器系统火力防区对弹炮发射判定的影响等问题,建立基于过航点的弹炮发射判定模型,提出了基于过航点的弹炮结合武器发射判定问题的解决方案,经仿真分析,与上两种算法对比,具有一定的改进。     

格栅舵控制巡飞导弹侧向动态特性分析

对某型采用格栅舵进行控制的巡飞导弹进行了侧向动态特性分析;通过对飞行时格栅舵偏转提供的偏航与倾斜控制力进行研究,采用小扰动线性化理论对气动力、气动力矩与运动方程进行了线性化,选取巡飞初始状态为特征点,计算了该状态下各系数的值,建立了侧向扰动运动方程组;由扰动运动方程组分析了自由扰动运动的稳定性和运动特点,求得以舵偏为输入的各偏量传递函数,得到舵阶跃偏转下的动态响应;结果表明,在该状态下,巡飞导弹具有侧向稳定性,倾斜转弯的机动能力要远远大于侧滑转弯。     

大区域防空作战条件下防空兵作战方案的优选

大区域防空作战条件下防空作战指挥决策往往面临的是多目的(指标)决策,在分析作战指标的基础上对所选作战方案的益损值进行标准化处理和贴近度排序,并求出各方案的排序频数,将其转化为最优线性分派模型进行优化,从而使所有方案得到总体最优排序。     

高可靠性软件的极值统计分析

提出了极值统计分析的方法.对于失效数据极值分布函数的拟合检验,采用了相关系数法;对于母体分布的参数估计,则分别采用了最小二乘估计(LSE)和极大似然估计(MLE);最后通过一个实例说明了统计过程,并用模拟的方法证明了最小二乘估计较好.     

紫外光谱法分析火场残留物汽油成分

根据汽油燃烧有可能生成复杂的多环芳烃的特点,对火场残留物中可能存在的微量汽油成分进行了提纯,并利用紫外分光光度计对样品进行分析,通过分析总结实验得出的数据及图谱,可以证明紫外光谱法分析火场残留物中可能存在的汽油成分是一种快速有效的鉴定分析方法。     

多通道舰空导弹武器系统目标分配模型

目标分配是影响多通道舰空导弹武器系统多目标作战能力的关键环节。在分析多通道系统组成和作战的基础上,综合系统战技性能和战术使用运用特点,建立目标分配优化模型,并运用作战模拟方法进行了仿真,结果表明该模型可优化射击次序,增加目标分配数量,提高平均杀伤目标数,对于提高系统作战效能和指挥效率具有一定的参考价值。     

Production‐inventory systems with imperfect advance demand information and updating

We consider a supplier with finite production capacity and stochastic production times. Customers provide advance demand information (ADI) to the supplier by announcing orders ahead of their due dates. However, this information is not perfect, and customers may request an order be fulfilled prior to or later than the expected due date. Customers update the status of their orders, but the time between consecutive updates is random. We formulate the production‐control problem as a continuous‐time Markov decision process and prove there is an optimal state‐dependent base‐stock policy, where the base‐stock levels depend upon the numbers of orders at various stages of update. In addition, we derive results on the sensitivity of the state‐dependent base‐stock levels to the number of orders in each stage of update. In a numerical study, we examine the benefit of ADI, and find that it is most valuable to the supplier when the time between updates is moderate. We also consider the impact of holding and backorder costs, numbers of updates, and the fraction of customers that provide ADI. In addition, we find that while ADI is always beneficial to the supplier, this may not be the case for the customers who provide the ADI. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Optimal control of a capacitated inventory system with multiple demand classes

This article studies the optimal control of a periodic‐review make‐to‐stock system with limited production capacity and multiple demand classes. In this system, a single product is produced to fulfill several classes of demands. The manager has to make the production and inventory allocation decisions. His objective is to minimize the expected total discounted cost. The production decision is made at the beginning of each period and determines the amount of products to be produced. The inventory allocation decision is made after receiving the random demands and determines the amount of demands to be satisfied. A modified base stock policy is shown to be optimal for production, and a multi‐level rationing policy is shown to be optimal for inventory allocation. Then a heuristic algorithm is proposed to approximate the optimal policy. The numerical studies show that the heuristic algorithm is very effective. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 58: 43–58, 2011