Deterrence under nuclear asymmetry: THAAD and the prospects for missile defense on the Korean peninsula

The 2016 decision to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to South Korea has generated multitude of intensely politicized issues and has proved highly controversial. This has made it challenging to alleviate, let alone clarify, points of analytical and policy tensions. We instead disaggregate and revisit two fundamental questions. One is whether THAAD could really defend South Korea from North Korean missiles. We challenge the conventional “qualified optimism” by giving analytical primacy to three countermeasures available to defeat THAAD–use of decoys, tumbling and spiral motion, and outnumbering. These countermeasures are relatively inexpensive to create but exceedingly difficult to offset. Second, we assess the optimal way to ensure South Korean national security against North Korean missiles. By examining the balance of capability and issues of credibility/commitment, we show that the U.S. extended deterrence by punishment remains plentiful and sufficiently credible even without enhancing the current defense capability.     

加强防空导弹部队和歼击航空兵部署建议的 论证方法

兵力需求是作战筹划的重要内容之一,防空兵力需求的估算是防空作战指挥员和指挥机关平时进行战场建设,战时实施兵力集结与调动的基本依据。本文提出了一种加强防空兵力部署建议的论证方法,在不使用复杂的冲突空域仿真模型的情况下,使军事指挥机关能够高效地确定冲突双方兵力对比关系以及期望的作战行动效能;拟定在任何一个部队责任区内,防空导弹部队和歼击航空兵部署战斗编成的论证建议,供部队指挥员决策参考。     

线性模型的海基制导系统误差分离方法性能分析

利用传统制导工具系统误差线性回归模型,对Bayes估计、主成分分析以及正则化分析三种改进的分离方法进行了比较,分析了它们在工程应用上的优缺点,给出了实际应用时的限制因素;同时结合海基导弹特有的初始状态误差,设计了整体估计、分段估计以及迭代估计三种估计策略,给出了相应的分离步骤。仿真结果表明,文中给出的三种误差分离方法在不同的评价标准下具有不同的实际应用意义;而在弹道差评价标准以及方差评价标准下,分段估计和迭代估计策略下的误差分离结果要明显好于传统整体估计结果。     

Bi‐objective missile rescheduling for a naval task group with dynamic disruptions

This paper considers the rescheduling of surface‐to‐air missiles (SAMs) for a naval task group (TG), where a set of SAMs have already been scheduled to intercept a set of anti‐ship missiles (ASMs). In missile defense, the initial engagement schedule is developed according to the initial state of the defensive and attacking units. However, unforeseen events may arise during the engagement, creating a dynamic environment to be handled, and making the initial schedule infeasible or inefficient. In this study, the initial engagement schedule of a TG is assumed to be disrupted by the occurrence of a destroyed ASM, the breakdown of a SAM system, or an incoming new target ASM. To produce an updated schedule, a new biobjective mathematical model is formulated that maximizes the no‐leaker probability value for the TG and minimizes the total deviation from the initial schedule. With the problem shown to be NP‐hard, some special cases are presented that can be solved in polynomial time. We solve small size problems by the augmented ? ‐ constraint method and propose heuristic procedures to generate a set of nondominated solutions for larger problems. The results are presented for different size problems and the total effectiveness of the model is evaluated.     

A stochastic air combat logistics decision model for Blue versus Red opposition

Technologically advanced aircraft rely on robust and responsive logistics systems to ensure a high state of operational readiness. This paper fills a critical gap in the literature for combat models by closely relating effectiveness of the logistics system to determinants of success in combat. We present a stochastic diffusion model of an aerial battle between Blue and Red forces. The number of aircraft of Blue forces aloft and ready to be aloft on combat missions is limited by the maximum number of assigned aircraft, the reliability of aircraft subsystems, and the logistic system's ability to repair and replenish those subsystems. Our parsimonious model can illustrate important trade‐offs between logistics decision variables and operational success.     

近地卫星Ka频段数传链路抗雨衰ACM模式设计

针对近地卫星数传时的信道时变性和严重的Ka频段雨衰现象,采用自适应编码调制（ACM）技术能够充分利用链路资源,相对于传统的固定编码调制方式,进一步提高了链路的数据吞吐量。提出了近地卫星Ka频段数传链路ACM模式设计方法,在降雨环境下建立Ka频段数传链路模型,根据信道状况确定ACM选用模式;采用基于导频符号的最大似然信噪比估计算法结合移动平均的平滑方法实现信道估计,有效地减小了估计值的波动。仿真结果表明,无论晴天还是雨天,采用提出的卫星数传链路ACM模式设计方法,能够在保证系统可靠性的同时获取较高的数据吞吐量。     

要地防卫反无人机装备发展与启示

无人机技术的发展及其在现代战场的广泛应用,给机场、阵地、营地、指挥所等要地的防空体系带来新的挑战。以俄罗斯铠甲武器系统为首的弹炮结合末段防空系统代表了要地防卫装备的重要发展方向。本文从无人机技术发展对要地防空系统的新威胁出发,探讨传统防空武器系统在执行要地防卫过程中应对低、慢、小无人机目标可能存在的技术问题,并对比分析了监测控制类、直接摧毁类和干扰反制类等典型反无人机技术的特点,然后针对俄罗斯“铠甲”弹炮结合武器系统发展的过程、反无人机作战案例及其在要地防卫作战中的应用特点等进行深入探讨,最后针对要地防卫反无人机装备的发展提出若干建议。研究结果可为开展要地防卫反无人机装备的体系规划和发展论证提供参考。     

信息化条件下武器装备计量保障

随着军队使命任务的拓展、战争形态的演变和导弹武器装备的快速发展,装备的信息化程度不断提高,计量保障在导弹武器装备体系中的作用更加突出。本文分析了信息化导弹武器装备计量保障的现状及特点,对计量保障的发展进行了研究,并提出了对策建议。     

地面无人装备对未来陆战的影响及对策

当前,地面无人装备作为多能合一的新质作战力量,已成为世界各军事强国发展的重点,对未来陆战形态影响深远。为准确把握地面无人装备对陆战的影响及未来陆战形态发展趋势,本文首先通过对地面无人装备的发展现状及在研项目的分析,分析装备能力的发展趋势以及可担负的作战任务;其次,从颠覆战场形态、改变作战方式及影响指挥控制方式三个方面阐述了地面无人装备给未来陆战带来的影响;再次,从无人化技术、作战样式及指挥决策三个方面对未来陆战形态的演进进行分析;最后为应对未来陆战变革带来的机遇与挑战,从军事需求、技术发展、优势保持及人才培养四个方面提出了对策与建议,具有一定的理论研究意义。     

舰空武器主要作战对象的特性及其模拟

了解主要作战对象的特性是舰空武器设计、试验必要的前提,也是空中靶标建设的关键,文章对此进行了归纳分析,提出了模拟这些特性的关键点,为舰空武器设计与试验、空中靶标设计与实现提供基本的结论。