Scheduling combat logistics force replenishments at sea for the US Navy

The Replenishment at Sea Planner (RASP) is saving the U.S. Navy millions of dollars a year by reducing fuel consumption of its Combat Logistics Force (CLF). CLF shuttle supply ships deploy from ports to rendezvous with underway U.S. combatants and those of coalition partners. The overwhelming commodity transferred is fuel, ship‐to‐ship by hoses, while other important packaged goods and spare parts are high‐lined, or helicoptered between ships. The U.S. Navy is organized in large areas of responsibility called numbered fleets, and within each of these a scheduler must promulgate a daily forecast of CLF shuttle operations. The operational planning horizon extends out several weeks, or as far into the future as we can forecast demand. We solve RASP with integer linear optimization and a purpose‐built heuristic. RASP plans Replenishment‐at‐Sea (RAS) events with 4‐hour (Navy watch) time fidelity. For five years, RASP has served two purposes: (1) it helps schedulers generate a daily schedule and animates it using Google Earth, and (2) it automates reports command‐to‐ship messages that are essential to keep this complex logistics system operating.     

From Nationalism to Factionalism: Faultlines in the Naga Insurgency

Do ceasefires or peace talks create fragmentation in the insurgent groups? Rather than proposing claims that can offer predictions about armed groups behaviour under ceasefires or peace processes, the analysts tend to focus largely on the dynamics between state and non-state actor. The experts pay little attention to overtime changes in social and local political context which might contribute to propelling a rebel group towards fragmentation and factionalism. The present study intends to fill this gap by exploring the shifting role of public opinion and ethnic support for the peace talks to ascertain whether it can increase the likelihood of factionalism in rebel groups or not. This article applies this approach to the case of Naga National Movement (1947–2015) in India, and finds that the proposed variable appears to have increased the frequency of factionalism in the movement.     

Explaining Cohesion in an Insurgent Organization: The Case of the Mizo National Front

Despite the prevalence of violent uprisings against the states, existing literature has produced a generalized explanation of the causes and onset of such uprisings ignoring crucial aspects of (non-state) armed group cohesion, such as their capabilities to manage intra-group tensions and rivalries. In this paper, I examine recent research in the field of civil conflict to understand the importance of investigating underlying constraints which can cause serious impediments to the capabilities of a state during the course of a war. The paper then focuses on the importance of internal strategic resources, such as pre-war and wartime sociopolitical networks in which insurgents mobilize, recruit new cadres and maintain intra-group cooperation, to suggest how it can contain the consequences of counterinsurgency operations and other state strategies on the internal cohesion of an insurgent group. A detailed case study of the Mizo National Front (MNF) in India demonstrates the argument’s plausibility.     

多核贝叶斯优化的模型决策树算法

构造模型决策树时超参数较多,参数组合复杂,利用网格搜索等调参方法将会消耗大量的时间,影响模型性能的提升。提出了一种多核贝叶斯优化的模型决策树算法,该算法为应对不同分类数据特性,采用三种高斯过程建模寻优,利用贝叶斯优化技术,选出最优的参数组合。实验结果表明,所提算法在参数寻优上要优于传统的模型决策树寻优方法,并且能够在迭代次数不多的情况下找到全局最优参数值,在一定程度上提升了算法的分类性能,节省了大量的调参时间。     

决策树报文分类算法

报文分类是网络的基本功能,研究人员在过去二十年提出了众多解决方案,其中决策树报文分类算法由于吞吐量高、适用于多字段、可流水线化等特点受到了广泛关注和深入研究。本文介绍了决策树算法最新研究成果,阐述了决策树报文分类算法的几何意义、常用技术和测试基准,从节点切割技术和规则集分组技术两个维度对决策树算法进行了系统分析和归纳。针对两类常用的决策树构建技术介绍了其中的典型算法,对比了各种典型算法的设计思路和特点,分析了它们的适用场景。总结并展望了决策树算法的下一步研究方向。     

科学管理、精益管理与精确作战工程保障研究

设计是作战行动筹划的重要步骤,精确工程保障需要对工程保障行动进行精密的设计和精确管理与控制。科学管理采用科学实验的方法,通过劳动方法标准化和差别计件工资制度,有效提高了工作效率,其基本原理经过百余年的实际检验,被证明是一个成熟有效的管理方法。借鉴科学管理理论,需要对工程保障行动进行动作研究,进而研究工程保障行动的作业标准,以期提高其保障效率。精益管理是在科学管理在新的历史时期的发展与改进,它使用了准时制、零库存、均衡生产、持续改进等先进的管理理念和六西格玛管理、成组技术等先进技术,为基于信息系统体系作战的工程保障能力生成提供了有益的借鉴,可加深我们对精确工程保障的理解,促进精确工程保障研究的可操作性。     

基于MDFT框架的海上能源通道航线动态决策建模与仿真

针对常规海上航线决策没有考虑决策选择过程的问题,引入多选择决策场理论（ MDFT）,构建了海上能源通道航线动态决策模型。基于信息完备、信息不确定和特殊情况等三种情景想定,进行了海上能源通道航线规划决策及其实验仿真。结果表明,决策过程受时间压力和信息质量的制约,时间压力会制约决策质量,同时还可能引起“偏好逆转”现象,信息不确定也会导致确定性决策。该模型不仅综合考虑了海上能源通道航线选择时需关注的各类要素,且模型参数可动态调整,进而能合理模拟真实的海上状况和决策过程。     

信息化条件下空战威胁评估指标体系

目标威胁评估是空战决策研究的重要组成部分,评价指标是进行威胁评估的前提和基础。根据现代空战的特点,借鉴网络中心战思想,从空间态势、物理域、信息域、认知域4个角度,构建了信息化条件下空战目标威胁评估指标体系,并对指标体系进行了完备性、合理性、有效性检验。通过实例分析表明威胁评估指标能较好地反映信息化条件下空中目标的实际威胁,为空战决策研究提供参考。     

基于向量相似度的组合赋权方法

针对多属性决策中属性权重的确定问题,提出了一种基于向量相似度的主、客观权重的集成方法。用权向量的相似度作为不同赋权方法重要性的度量,意义明确,计算简单,可操作性强。最后结合算例验证了此方法的有效性和实用性。     

行政复议机关在行政诉讼中的被告地位研究

行政复议制度具有其独立的功能价值,而我国现行法律关于经复议后如何确定行政诉讼被告的规定,却存在着许多弊端,使得这种功能价值很难体现。实践中,行政权的依法行使需要司法权强有力的监督,因此,有必要将行政复议的结果尤其是行政复议维持决定纳入司法审查范围。从行政诉讼法关于被告问题的规定和行政复议法中复议机关的职责责任方面对现行法律规定的完善进行了探讨。