Optimal redesign decisions through failure rate estimates

To reduce the time-to-market of newly developed systems, manufacturers increasingly adopt strategies where systems are brought to market while system field reliability is still uncertain. These systems are typically sold under performance-based contracts, which incentivizes potential customers to invest in them despite reliability uncertainty. Such contracts make the manufacturer (partly) responsible for the availability of the system. Subsequently, when field reliability is lower than anticipated, the manufacturer may choose to redesign the system to avoid high contract penalties. Redesign is a costly effort which may substantially increase field reliability. Deciding when to redesign is challenging, especially because the initial failure rate estimate by the system's engineers is refined over time as failure data accrues. We propose a model that endogenizes the failure rate updating to analyze this tactical redesign decision. We study additive and multiplicative redesigns and show that the optimal policy has a control limit structure. We benchmark our optimal policy against a static counterpart numerically, and conclude that basing redesign decisions on the updated estimate of the failure rate can substantially reduce costs.     

直流螺旋线圈电磁发射器的能量转换效率

综合考虑换向过程、炮口剩余磁能和电阻的能量损耗等因素,建立等效电路模型,通过理论、数值计算和实验的方法,对比分析了常规螺旋发射器和一种新型螺旋发射器的效率。结果表明:电阻焦耳热损耗的能量最大,其次是换向磁能损失,而炮口剩余磁能损失最小。降低电阻、增大互感梯度、减小驱动线圈单元的匝数、增大工作电流等方式可以有效提高发射器的能量转换效率。然而,较大的互感梯度也会带来较大的换向磁能和炮口磁能损失,造成炮管烧蚀甚至损坏、能量泄放和效率降低。另外,恒流工作模式的螺旋发射器理论效率超过轨道炮,且新型螺旋发射器结构的理论效率接近100%,未来有望在超导或较低电阻的情况下实现应用。     

Does military spending stimulate growth? An empirical investigation in Italy

This paper investigates the effect of military burden on economic growth and extends previous works on the optimal size of government expenditure by exploring how external threat affects the preferences of the households and, in turn, economic growth. Post World War II Italian data are used to estimate nonlinear growth models using time-series semi-parametric methods. The estimates show that total government and civilian burdens are productive, whereas, military burden has significant effects on economic growth through the expenditure for peacekeeping missions, which reduces the insecurity in the home country. This may justify economically the current not negligible budget devoted to peacekeeping and humanitarian missions.     

Shots per casualty: an indicator of combat efficiency for the first Australian task force in South Vietnam

ABSTRACT

In combat, the ratio of shots fired per casualty inflicted can provide a measure of the combat effectiveness of a force. The shots per casualty ratio achieved by the 1st Australian Task Force in Vietnam is shown to change according to factors including marksmanship, tactics and combat type. While, over the course of the campaign, 1ATF fired an increasing number of shots to achieve a casualty, this is explained by improvements in the quality of Viet Cong and People’s Army small arms. Australian Task Force and US Army shots per casualty ratios are briefly compared..     

稳态法测量热系数的计算方法改进研究

不良导体热系数测量普遍采用的是稳态法,但表面散热率的间接测量和样品侧面散热与漏热给测量带来一定误差,使得热系数实际测量值略微偏大。介绍了新的实验装置和实验数值计算方法,并且分析研究了样品边缘（侧面）热损失的物理模型,提出了新的数学模型和数据处理方法,纠正了这些偏差,与实验吻合较好。     

驱护舰指挥关系的时效和质量熵分析方法

为了解决如何对驱护舰指挥关系的优化进行定量分析,首先定性分析了新应用的方面指挥模式,继而以指挥组织结构的时效性和准确性为测评指标,建立了基于熵理论的优化分析数学模型,并对现有的两种指挥关系进行了定量计算分析,得到了与定性分析相一致的结论.该方法能在定性分析的基础上定量地研究驱护舰指挥关系的优劣,为定性分析提供有力的数据支持,对驱护舰指挥关系的优化分析具有参考价值.     

当前应急救援体系短板探析

结合典型应急救援实战案例,明确当前影响应急救援体系效率的关键因素,通过对应急救援作战效能的分析,寻找应急救援体系的短板环节,并提出了以消防部队为核心枢纽提高应急救援能力的有效途径。     

基于门限的无线传感器网络密钥管理方案

由于无线传感器网络在能量消耗、内存开销和计算能力等方面的局限性,传统的网络密钥管理方法已不适用。为此提出了一种适用于无线传感器网络的密钥预分配方法——基于（t,n）-门限方案,给出了密钥分配方法,并从方案的连通性、安全性等方面进行了有效的分析,结果表明该算法在这些方面有一定的优势。     

新时期武警院校心理服务工作的理念与路径

加强武警院校心理服务工作,是新形势下院校建设的重要课题。必须以新的思路适应心理工作的需要,认真落实规章制度,突出工作重点,构建服务网络,积极探索有效载体,进一步提高心理服务工作的质量效益,为院校建设奠定坚实的安全基础。     

新疆赛里木湖高体雅罗鱼生物学研究

对新疆赛里木湖高体雅罗鱼年龄、生长、繁殖等生物学特性进行了研究,通过研究,为进一步开发和利用高体雅罗鱼提供了理论依据。