弹道导弹作战效能建模分析

在对地地弹道式导弹武器系统的组成、特点进行分析的基础上,拟制了该武器系统作战效能的指标体系;给出了作战效能的基本关系式;重点对发射可靠性、生存能力、飞行可靠性、突防能力、弹头毁伤能力等影响导弹作战效能的主要指标进行了分析,给出了计算模型或具体量值.     

线性唯象传热规律下热机内可逆热经济学研究

对符合线性唯象传热规律(q∝Δ(T-1))的热机内可逆热经济学做了进一步研究,导出了在给定条件下Novikov热机的最优利润解析式,并得到了最优利润和相应的效率同其它参数间的关系.     

On the behavior and shape of mixture failure rates from a family of IFR Weibull distributions

Populations of many types of component are heterogeneous and often consist of a small number of different subpopulations. This is called a mixture and it arises in a number of situations. For example, a majority of products in industrial populations are mixtures of defective items with shorter lifetimes and standard items with longer lifetimes. It is a well‐known result that distributions with decreasing failure rates are closed under mixture. However, mixtures of distributions with increasing failure rates are not easily classifiable. If the subpopulations involved in the mixture have increasing failure rates, there might be some upward movement in the mixture and later a general downward pull towards the strongest component. Little work has been done in describing the shape of mixture failure rates when all subpopulations do not have decreasing failure rate. In this paper, we present general results that describe the shape and behavior of a failure rate of a mixture obtained from two Weibull subpopulations with strictly increasing failure rates. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

军械保障指挥自动化系统效能评估指标体系研究

在对系统结构和功能进行详细分析的基础上,构建了某级军械指挥自动化系统效能评估指标体系模型,给出了各级指标的专家判断矩阵,对其一致性进行检验,得出了各评估指标的权重。     

任务空间概念模型VV&A研究

任务空间概念模型是现实世界军事知识的第一层抽象,是仿真系统开发的业务基础。所以任务空间概念模型的质量直接影响到仿真系统的质量,任务空间概念模型自身的VV&A是一个非常值得关注的问题。任务空间概念建模本质上看是军事领域的知识表示或者需求描述,定性描述占主要,定量成分非常少。因此,传统的通过分析输出数据的方法不能适应任务空间概念模型的特点。概要介绍了任务空间概念模型建模,并且提出了从专家法、静态校核机制、概念执行机制三个角度来考察模型质量的思路。     

A note on necessary and sufficient conditions for ordering properties of coherent systems with exchangeable components

We give necessary and sufficient conditions based on signatures to obtain distribution‐free stochastic ordering properties for coherent systems with exchangeable components. Specifically, we consider the stochastic, the hazard (failure) rate, the reversed hazard rate, and the likelihood ratio orders. We apply these results to obtain stochastic ordering properties for all the coherent systems with five or less exchangeable components. Our results extend some preceding results. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Disruption management in production planning

We study the problem of recovering a production plan after a disruption, where the disruption may be caused by incidents such as power failure, market change, machine breakdown, supply shortage, worker no‐show, and others. The new recovery plan we seek after has to not only suit the changed environment brought about by the disruption, but also be close to the initial plan so as not to cause too much customer unsatisfaction or inconvenience for current‐stage and downstream operations. For the general‐cost case, we propose a dynamic programming method for the problem. For the convex‐cost case, a general problem which involves both cost and demand disruptions can be solved by considering the cost disruption first and then the demand disruption. We find that a pure demand disruption is easy to handle; and for a pure cost disruption, we propose a greedy method which is provably efficient. Our computational studies also reveal insights that will be helpful to managing disruptions in production planning. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Insurgency by the numbers I: A reconsideration of the ecology of communist success in jiangxi province,China

Theorizing about Taliban operations in Afghanistan has its limits and it is possible that Kabul-centric strategies do not adequately address the unique circumstances of each region in the country. How exactly has the Taliban gone about attaining its objectives in Kandahar province and how have those approaches evolved since 2002? And how have the Taliban adapted to coalition forces' attempts to compete with the insurgency and stamp it out? The answers to these questions are critical in the formulation of any counterinsurgency approach to Afghanistan.     

鱼雷贮存战备完好率模型

为了评估鱼雷综合特性参数鱼雷贮存战备完好率,分析了国军标中基本模型,对照鱼雷寿命剖面,指出基本模型在具体鱼雷装备中应用存在的不足;通过对鱼雷寿命剖面中的基层级维修的深入分析,综合考虑贮存可靠度、故障检测率、鱼雷故障修复概率与备件满足率,给出了一个LRU故障、多个相同LRU故障以及多个不同LRU故障时的战备完好率模型。并通过计算验证了该模型的有效性。     

两栖作战环境下装甲突击车战斗效能指数计算

分析了两栖装甲突击车战斗效能指标体系,战斗效能主要由攻击能力、机动能力、防护能力、指挥通信能力组成。根据海陆作战环境的特点,分别提出了陆上作战和海上作战的战斗效能指标体系。研究了海陆作战环境下的两栖装甲突击车战斗效能指数的计算方法,并分别计算攻击、机动、防护、指挥通信各能力的指数和系数。最后,通过实例计算分析,结果表明该方法计算各型两栖装备的效能指标基本符合实际情况,可用于装备作战使用研究和作战模拟系统。