存在工作历程产品的加速寿命试验统计分析

加速寿命试验(ALT)可在较短时间内获得产品的寿命及可靠性信息.利用ALT对产品的剩余寿命进行评估时,常常将已工作过的产品进行抽样并投入试验,在这一类样本的ALT数据统计分析时如何处理初始工作时间,成为ALT应用中的一个重要问题.工程实际中评估此类样本的剩余寿命时常常忽略初始工作时间,将其视为"用后如新"或"无记忆性"产品.但此假设必须以产品寿命服从指数分布为前提,而大部分机电产品的寿命服从Weibull分布,因而该方法在应用时必然会产生较大误差.针对这一问题提出了一种新的基于时间折算的ALT数据统计分析方法,并利用Monte Carlo仿真对其估计特性进行对比研究,结果表明此方法能有效评估存在初始工作历程产品的剩余寿命,估计精度优于原方法.     

基于分数阶傅立叶变换的ARM检测技术

分数阶傅立叶变换(FRFT)是傅立叶变换的广义形式,对线性调频(LFM)信号具有很好的能量积累作用.针对反辐射导弹(ARM)雷达回波信号的线性调频特性,提出了一种基于FRFT的反辐射导弹检测方法,并根据ARM信号的调频特性将FRFF局域化,缩小了峰值搜索区域,提高了检测效率.仿真实验表明该方法能够在高斯、非高斯分布杂波环境下有效地检测ARM信号.     

冲压增程弹进气道设计方法与性能分析

以冲压增程弹为应用背景进行了进气道设计.结合增程弹的特点,讨论了轴对称进气道中心锥参数、喉道参数、外罩参数的选择.特别对进气道唇口处参数、扩张段角度设计方法进行了分析.设计了单锥混压式、单锥外压式以及双锥混压式三种进气道,并进行了数值模拟.分析了进气道主要设计参数对其性能的影响.数值结果表明,就增程弹的性能要求而言,双锥混压式进气道的性能较高.     

脉冲等离子体推力器羽流的粒子模拟

目前微小卫星正在积极地发展中,脉冲等离子体推力器是其推进系统的一个重要发展方向,为了能够将PPT成功地运用于空间,需对其羽流进行研究.将DSMC(Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo)/PIC(Particle in Cell)流体混合算法与一维MHD放电模型相结合,一体化模拟NASA Glenn PPT羽流,对不同出口偏转角的羽流场进行模拟,并与实验结果进行了比较.计算结果显示引入出口速度的偏转角提高了模型的羽流扩散能力,羽流的扩散角是影响羽流的一个主要因素.     

攻角对双三角翼旋涡特性影响的数值模拟

采用数值方法研究了双三角翼上涡流运动随攻角的变化规律.计算取层流假设,研究了攻角在5°～30°,76°/40°后掠双三角翼绕流的流场结构随攻角的变化,并对双三角翼上涡破裂现象对流场结构及气动力性能的影响进行了分析.结果表明,双三角翼上的多涡结构存在强烈的相互影响,较大的攻角会导致涡破裂在翼面上发生,严重影响了双三角翼的气动力性能.     

A Question of ‘Government’ Control: Afghanistan DDR Programs Since 2001

Since the fall of the Taliban in late 2001, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA), the United States, the United Nations, and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) have funded and led three different Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) programs. Despite a significant investment in time and treasure, all of them have failed to significantly reduce the number of insurgents or arbaki (militia). This article explores why these programs failed despite incorporating ideas from the prominent DDR schools of thought. Utilizing Stathis Kalyvas’ theory of The Logic of Violence in Civil War as a lens, this article argues that GIRoA and ISAF did not have sufficient control of territory to entice insurgents or arbaki to reconcile and/or reintegrate with the government. Further, in areas GIRoA nominally controlled in northern and western Afghanistan, regional powerbrokers who controlled these areas balked at these programs.     

飞机反区速度矢量不稳定及其控制的机理

在信号流图的基础上,提出多回路分析的方法,并用于研究反区时速度矢量不稳定及其稳定控制的机理。建立了纵向动力学的信号流图,并证明了一个回路的收敛性定理。在此基础上,通过理论分析得出了速度矢量不稳定在不同层面上的原因,也得出了速度和轨迹的发散度表达式等,并表明阻力-速度曲线、轨迹角-速度曲线、极曲线、阻力系数曲线等存在相互对应的反区和正区,并且阻力-速度曲线和轨迹角-速度曲线在斜率上成比例。研究得出进场动力补偿系统下速度矢量的稳定临界条件、收敛度、稳定机理等,理论分析和仿真比较了速度恒定进场动力补偿系统和迎角恒定进场动力补偿系统在控制性能上的差异。     

掠飞末敏弹耦合运动动导数计算

以新型掠飞末敏弹为研究对象,提出了基于欧拉转动定理和滑移网格技术的复杂角运动模拟方法,利用著名的罗德里格斯转换矩阵插值求得弹箭在每个时间步的角速度修正值,并指定给球形滑移网格区。通过对非定常气动参数进行求解辨识,分析了不同马赫数下掠飞末敏弹滚转运动对其俯仰组合动导数和升力系数动导数的影响规律。结果表明:所提角运动模拟方法可有效消除姿态角计算的累积误差,实现对弹箭任意给定角运动的准确模拟;弹箭滚转运动对俯仰组合导数和升力系数动导数的辨识结果均存在显著影响,在进行弹箭动导数计算和稳定性分析时需充分考虑俯仰耦合效应的影响。     

Value management of diagnostic equipment with cancelation,no‐show,and emergency patients

Magnetic resonance imaging and other multifunctional diagnostic facilities, which are considered as scarce resources of hospitals, typically provide services to patients with different medical needs. This article examines the admission policies during the appointment management of such facilities. We consider two categories of patients: regular patients who are scheduled in advance through an appointment system and emergency patients with randomly generated demands during the workday that must be served as soon as possible. According to the actual medical needs of patients, regular patients are segmented into multiple classes with different cancelation rates, no‐show probabilities, unit value contributions, and average service times. Management makes admission decisions on whether or not to accept a service request from a regular patient during the booking horizon to improve the overall value that could be generated during the workday. The decisions should be made by considering the cancelation and no‐show behavior of booked patients as well as the emergency patients that would have to be served because any overtime service would lead to higher costs. We studied the optimal admission decision using a continuous‐time discrete‐state dynamic programming model. Identifying an optimal policy for this discrete model is analytically intractable and numerically inefficient because the state is multidimensional and infinite. We propose to study a deterministic counterpart of the problem (i.e., the fluid control problem) and to develop a time‐based fluid policy that is shown to be asymptotically optimal for large‐scale problems. Furthermore, we propose to adopt a mixed fluid policy that is developed based on the information obtained from the fluid control problem. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this improved policy works effectively for small‐scale problems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 287–304, 2016     

基于激励机制的装备采办风险总量控制

针对装备采办中的风险总量控制,提出一种激励方式来提高承包商的积极性。在单目标风险控制模型的基础上,建立了多目标风险控制模型,推导出了激励机制下风险控制的最优合同公式。对激励机制中存在的两类错误进行了理论分析和实例验证,得出了两类错误对收益的影响,并在成本控制中得到了应用,有效地提高了装备采办的质量和效率,为军方决策者在装备采办中提供了合理的参考依据。