基于IFS的区域目标群威胁度评估

在已有的单目标对空威胁评估的基础上,提出了一种针对区域防空的威胁度评估方法。利用直觉模糊集处理模糊信息的优势,可以较好地处理由于传感器探测误差导致的模糊态势,克服在雷达探测过程中出现的误差。在属性权重完全未知的情况下,综合考虑了区域内目标重要性、防空措施以及目标本身抗毁伤能力,推导了权重求取公式。列出了威胁评估值的求取步骤。经过运算,由算例1到t时间后算例2在评估结果上的变化,验证了方法的有效性。     

考虑外场差异的步进加速寿命数据可靠性评估方法

针对寿命服从双参数Weibull分布的机电产品,进行单应力、定时转换的步进加速寿命试验,研究加速寿命试验数据下的可靠性评估问题。考虑到外场多应力环境与实验室单一应力环境之间的差异性,构建基于修正系数的分布参数计算模型;开展步进加速寿命试验过程的统计分析,建立各应力下的累计分布函数关系;构建极大似然函数,运用数值迭代法,求解未知参数估计;结合某型机电产品进行仿真方案设计,采用Monte Carlo仿真方法产生样本数据,通过对比分析说明所提出的模型评估精度更高。     

基于神经网络的模糊理论在桥梁状态评估中的应用

探讨了模糊数学中的隶属函数在桥梁技术等级状态评估中的应用.在研究现有桥梁状态评估方法的基础上,把人工神经网络和模糊数学理论结合起来应用于大跨度预应力斜拉桥的等级状态评估,建立了基于三层神经元的模糊神经网络模型,并建立结构损伤度函数及等级隶属度模型,通过样本学习训练,获取评估专家的知识及直觉思维,最终确定桥梁所对应的技术状态等级.以检测的480组索力数据作为学习样本,另外4组作为验证样本进行了索力状态评估预测.计算结果表明,网络预测值与期望值吻合良好.     

美国陆军网络装备作战评估及启示

作战试验能有效地推动装备体系的建设发展,本文通过分析美国陆军网络集成评估与联合作战评估的作战试验特点,提出军队开展装备作战试验的几个建议。首先,总结了美国陆军网络集成评估到联合作战评估的发展演变,主要包括网络集成评估的地位和作用、网络集成评估的实施流程以及13次网络集成评估和3次作战评估的有关情况;其次,分析了网络集成评估的一系列作战试验特点,诸如实际作战需求牵引、逼真场景构建、试训一体化模式、部队战斗力的直接生成以及作战能力的军民融合式发展等;最后,提出了网络集成评估带来的若干启示,从满足实战能力需求开展作战试验、突出装备体系的互操作能力评估、探索试训结合的作战试验模式、组建专门的作战试验部队及鼓励工业部门参与作战试验等方面推动军队作战试验的发展。     

Damage assessment of the target area of the island/reef under the attack of missile warhead

Under the background of vigorously developing facilities of island/reef in the world, the economic value and strategic significance of the island/reef have become increasingly important. Unfortunately, they may easily become the attacking target of missiles in the war time. Therefore, aiming at the damage quantification of the targets in the island/reef under the missile attacking, a macroscopic damage assessment model for the target area is proposed in this paper. The model focuses on the construction of the assessment model framework. Firstly, the analytic hierarchy process and the grey relational analysis are applied to measure the importance of each target in the region through four indicators of the target hazard, striking urgency, damage advantage and mission relevance, respectively. Secondly, based on the damage mechanism of shock wave and fragments to target, the corresponding damage model is established, and the damage grade of each target in the evaluated area is obtained according to the damage criteria and grading standard. Finally, the model obtains the overall damage grade of the target area by employing the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, with synthesizing the importance and the damage grade of each target. Through the verification of an example, it demonstrates the certain feasibility of the model and provides a certain basis and reference for the subsequent research.     

An attacker‐defender model for analyzing the vulnerability of initial attack in wildfire suppression

Wildfire managers use initial attack (IA) to control wildfires before they grow large and become difficult to suppress. Although the majority of wildfire incidents are contained by IA, the small percentage of fires that escape IA causes most of the damage. Therefore, planning a successful IA is very important. In this article, we study the vulnerability of IA in wildfire suppression using an attacker‐defender Stackelberg model. The attacker's objective is to coordinate the simultaneous ignition of fires at various points in a landscape to maximize the number of fires that cannot be contained by IA. The defender's objective is to optimally dispatch suppression resources from multiple fire stations located across the landscape to minimize the number of wildfires not contained by IA. We use a decomposition algorithm to solve the model and apply the model on a test case landscape. We also investigate the impact of delay in the response, the fire growth rate, the amount of suppression resources, and the locations of fire stations on the success of IA.     

基于Bayes理论的航空电子设备可靠性评估

针对航空电子设备无失效数据可靠性分析问题,提出了weibull分布下基于Bayes理论的无失效数据分析方法,基于分层Bayes思想建立了模型,推导出可靠性参数后验分布计算公式,结合实例,验证了方法的有效性,结果表明,此方法计算结果符合工程实际,在其他电子设备可靠性分析中,有一定的借鉴意义.     

M&S中周期数据质量保证

数据的有效性与精确性在M&S全周期的校核、验证与确认过程中起着重要作用.从保证全生命周期的数据质量出发,说明了数据质量保证评估的体系结构,重点介绍了从数据采样到结论生成全周期中保证数据质量的基本原理和详细步骤.     

舰载导弹瞄准方法精度分析及其估值

矢量比较瞄准方法是近期国内提出的一种全新的瞄准方法.针对这种瞄准方法进行了可行性分析;该方法提出了在进行导弹方位瞄准时,需要将制导平台的框架角作为间接测量值,对间接测量值进行了精度分析;最后根据国内惯性器件测量精度、机械安装精度给出了这种瞄准方法的精度估值.     

基于装备战斗力的集群装备战损等级评定方法

为了建立集群装备战损评估决策支持系统的需要,对集群装备战损等级评定方法进行了研究.在集群装备的组成特点与评估装备战斗力的基本方法,战时实时评估与平时效能分析的区别与联系的分析基础上,建立了基于单装战损评估的战斗力评估模型,对模型的具体步骤与关键参数进行了详细阐述,由此进一步建立了基于模糊隶属度的集群装备战损等级评定模型.最后以示例对上述模型的具体应用进行了说明.