Steady‐state diffusion approximations for discrete‐time queue in hospital inpatient flow management

In this article, we analyze a discrete‐time queue that is motivated from studying hospital inpatient flow management, where the customer count process captures the midnight inpatient census. The stationary distribution of the customer count has no explicit form and is difficult to compute in certain parameter regimes. Using the Stein's method framework, we identify a continuous random variable to approximate the steady‐state customer count. The continuous random variable corresponds to the stationary distribution of a diffusion process with state‐dependent diffusion coefficients. We characterize the error bounds of this approximation under a variety of system load conditions—from lightly loaded to heavily loaded. We also identify the critical role that the service rate plays in the convergence rate of the error bounds. We perform extensive numerical experiments to support the theoretical findings and to demonstrate the approximation quality. In particular, we show that our approximation performs better than those based on constant diffusion coefficients when the number of servers is small, which is relevant to decision making in a single hospital ward.     

Health Insurance,Health Conditions,and Veteran Health Care Utilization

Abstract

The utilization of health care services by veterans has received much attention in recent years. However, the impact of the large array of factors affecting the veterans’ demand for health care services remains understudied. These factors include individual socio-demographic and economic characteristics, the availability of various sources of health insurance, and the prevalence of medical conditions. We use public data to analyze how veterans’ utilization of health care services varies with these factors. We also analyze how the reliance on VA services varies when alternative sources of health insurance are available to veterans. Based on the estimated relationships, we use a micro-simulation model to forecast future health care utilization, both inside and outside of VA.     

船舶轴频电场跟踪

针对轴频电场包络跟踪中先验信息缺失的问题,研究了船舶轴频电场跟踪对传感器阵列的基本要求,引入了一种基于最大似然选择的多初值渐进更新扩展卡尔曼滤波算法。建立船舶轴频电场包络跟踪的状态空间模型,用水平电偶极子对船舶轴频电场包络进行建模;建立基于最大似然选择的多初值模型;基于轴频包络信号特征,研究了对传感器阵列排布方式的要求。仿真结果表明,利用轴频电场包络对船舶进行跟踪是可行的,要求传感器阵列至少由3个传感器组成,且3个传感器不在一条直线上;在传感器阵列满足要求的情况下,该算法可以有效解决轴频电场包络跟踪中的先验信息缺失问题,具有较高的实用价值。     

非致命防暴动能弹作战效能评估

提出了非致命防暴动能弹作战效能的评估法,分析了非致命防暴动能弹的技术性能,建立了以非致命性为核心指标的防暴动能弹效能指标体系。采用定性分析与定量分析相结合,将集对分析法应用到了非致命防暴动能弹的效能评估中,对3种防暴动能弹进行了效能评估。为非致命防暴动能弹的研发生产提供了重要的理论支撑。     

结合兰彻斯特方程分析战场地形因素对战争的影响

针对现代战争中地形对作战制约因素增多的问题,在兰彻斯特作战模型基础上,加入战场地形因素,分析对战争的影响。本文介绍了兰彻斯特方程的改进与发展,通过地形对通行和隐蔽的影响分类,构建一种反映地形因素的作战模型,并运用Matlab软件编写模型算法进行仿真计算。仿真结果表明:该模型可在一定程度上反映地形因素对战争的影响,同时说明了合理有效发挥地形优势可以达到以少胜多、以弱胜强的军事目的。     

公众聚集场所火灾危险性评估方法研究

针对公众聚集场所火灾危险性特点,从建筑特征、危险源、消防设施、人员疏散和安全管理等五个方面建立火灾危险性评价指标体系。在此基础上通过专家打分和层次分析法,计算得出各指标因子的权重值,根据有关标准和规范,对各评价指标因子进行等级划分,设计安全检查评分表,采用线性加权模型,计算该场所的系统安全分值,得出火灾危险性评价结果。最后给出一个评估实例,对评估方法进行验证。     

消防灭火中致损行为的救济途径

消防部门在扑救火灾的过程中,往往会不可避免的对其他公民、法人或者其他组织造成财产上的损害,谁来为这些损失“买单”,已经成为消防部门目前所面临一个突出问题。通过对消防灭火行为的法律定性、分析国家赔偿与紧急避险理论,试图找到一个解决此类问题的有效救济途径。     

消防技术服务中介机构的发展与管理

分析了当前消防技术服务中介机构存在的问题与发展制约因素,提出了发展与规范消防技术服务中介机构的对策。     

运用对抗演练法评估边防战术训练初探

战术对抗演练是战术训练的重要方法,已在边防部队实战技能训练中得到广泛运用。侧重挖掘的是战术对抗演练在边防战术训练中的另一个重要作用,即评估战术训练水平的作用,着重从对抗演练法评估边防战术训练的必要性、运用的基本思路及应注意的问题三个方面进行论述。     

基于现代信息技术的大学英语教学评估体系探索与实践

探索和完善教学评估体系是基于现代信息技术的大学英语教学改革面临的一项重要任务。文章探讨了在基于现代信息技术的教学环境下,大学英语采用以形成性评估为主的评估体系,以激发学生在英语学习中的主体性、能动性和创造性。同时,从大学英语教学实践出发,提出一套操作性较强的评估方法。