The Gravity of Arms

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international arms transfers in a gravity model framework. By distinguishing between the decision to export arms (extensive margin) and the value of the arms exported (intensive margin), while also considering its interdependence, is what differentiates this paper from previous research. A theoretically justified gravity model of trade augmented with political and security motives is estimated using a two-stage panel data approach for 104 exporting countries over the period from 1950 to 2007. In addition to the usual gravity variables related to the economic mass of the trading countries and the trade cost factors, the model is extended with political and security factors. The level of democracy in both trading partners, political differences between trading partners and voting similarity with the United States in the UN General Assembly of the countries engaged in trade are the main political factors, whereas the existence of conflicts, military pacts, and embargoes are taken as security motives. The key result indicates that both political and security motives are an important determinant of an arms trade, but their effects on the extensive margin of exports (the decision to order a transfer) differs from their effect on the intensive margin (average value of exports). Moreover, the relative importance of the factors under study has changed since 1989. In the post-cold war period, countries that are less democratic are more likely to export arms, military pacts are less relevant and embargoes play a role.     

Dynamic server assignment policies for assembly‐type queues with flexible servers

We seek dynamic server assignment policies in finite‐capacity queueing systems with flexible and collaborative servers, which involve an assembly and/or a disassembly operation. The objective is to maximize the steady‐state throughput. We completely characterize the optimal policy for a Markovian system with two servers, two feeder stations, and instantaneous assembly and disassembly operations. This optimal policy allocates one server per station unless one of the stations is blocked, in which case both servers work at the unblocked station. For Markovian systems with three stations and instantaneous assembly and/or disassembly operations, we consider similar policies that move a server away from his/her “primary” station only when that station is blocked or starving. We determine the optimal assignment of each server whose primary station is blocked or starving in systems with three stations and zero buffers, by formulating the problem as a Markov decision process. Using this optimal assignment, we develop heuristic policies for systems with three or more stations and positive buffers, and show by means of a numerical study that these policies provide near‐optimal throughput. Furthermore, our numerical study shows that these policies developed for assembly‐type systems also work well in tandem systems. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Optimum step‐stress accelerated life test plans for log‐location‐scale distributions

This article presents new tools and methods for finding optimum step‐stress accelerated life test plans. First, we present an approach to calculate the large‐sample approximate variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a quantile of the failure time distribution at use conditions from a step‐stress accelerated life test. The approach allows for multistep stress changes and censoring for general log‐location‐scale distributions based on a cumulative exposure model. As an application of this approach, the optimum variance is studied as a function of shape parameter for both Weibull and lognormal distributions. Graphical comparisons among test plans using step‐up, step‐down, and constant‐stress patterns are also presented. The results show that depending on the values of the model parameters and quantile of interest, each of the three test plans can be preferable in terms of optimum variance. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

一种高效的显式模型检验方法

随着软硬件系统规模和功能的不断扩充,状态空间爆炸问题严重影响了模型检验的进一步发展与应用,成为验证大规模系统的瓶颈.在显式模型检验工具Murphi的基础上,针对其可达状态空间组织存在的问题进行改进,提出了基于整型指针与Fibonacci散列的可达状态空间组织方法,实现了一个高效的显式模型检验原型系统,在确保验证正确的同时有效缩短了验证时间,并能在系统规范不可满足的情况下给出反例,有助于系统设计人员快速定位错误.理论分析和实验结果表明了本方法的有效性.     

穿甲子弹垂直侵彻防弹钢试验与理论模型

试验研究了穿甲子弹垂直侵彻高强防弹钢的机理,提出了一个分析靶板极限速度和弹体剩余速度的理论模型,该模型综合考虑了材料的应变率与热软化效应,结果表明,理论值与试验值吻合很好.分析了失效准则的影响,研究了剪切带温度和靶板耗能随入射速度的变化规律.     

脉冲等离子体推力器羽流的粒子模拟

目前微小卫星正在积极地发展中,脉冲等离子体推力器是其推进系统的一个重要发展方向,为了能够将PPT成功地运用于空间,需对其羽流进行研究.将DSMC(Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo)/PIC(Particle in Cell)流体混合算法与一维MHD放电模型相结合,一体化模拟NASA Glenn PPT羽流,对不同出口偏转角的羽流场进行模拟,并与实验结果进行了比较.计算结果显示引入出口速度的偏转角提高了模型的羽流扩散能力,羽流的扩散角是影响羽流的一个主要因素.     

基于伪临界值的Cache一致性协议验证方法

针对Cache一致性协议状态空间爆炸问题,提出共享集合伪临界值(Pseudo-cutoff)的概念,并以采用释放一致性模型的CC-NUMA系统为例,分析了共享数据的分布情况,推导出在一定条件下共享集合伪临界值为4的结论,有效优化了目录Cache协议状态空间,并提出了解决小概率的宽共享事件的方法.实验数据表明,基于伪临界值的协议模型优化,能够有效缩小Cache协议状态空间,加快验证速度,扩大验证规模.     

捷联惯导系统快速自对准误差模型的建立

通过对惯性制导系统两个基本方程的研究,求出了各状态矢量在各坐标系下的微分方程,然后以ψ角法所确立的平台为基准,分别推导得出惯性制导系统各主要状态的微分方程,从而建立了捷联惯性制导系统的误差模型.最后根据静基座捷联惯导系统初始对准的特点对其进行简化,得到了静基座捷联惯导系统快速自对准的误差模型.     

海战场时空查询及索引机制研究

针对目前海战场信息系统的不足,引入时空数据技术对战场数据建模,并支持设计了海战场时空数据库原型系统.对系统要求的时空查询问题进行归纳,结合海战场数据特性加以分析,为后续的索引建立提供了依据.3D R-tree相较现有的其他时空索引更适用于海战场的环境,并通过扩充部分的弥补了其检索效率的不足.     

自行火炮发动机振动仿真研究

针对某型自行火炮柴油发动机系统,采用Matlab软件的Simulink 工具,建立了整个系统的动力学仿真模型。分别对该模型进行正弦、白噪声信号扰动下的仿真,从系统输出转矩和转速的曲线结果分析,证明了该模型具有较好的可信度。该模型的建立为今后深入开展发动机仿真研究提供了基础。