Escalation and de-escalation of violence in insurgencies: Insights from Northeast India

Insurgencies in the Northeast of India have been a recurring phenomenon since India's independence in 1947. One of the most significant aspects of the multiple insurgencies has been the use of violence for political goals. By drawing upon three cases of insurgencies in Northeast India, the article offers a conceptual framework on escalation and de-escalation of violence in insurgencies. The article argues that the most critical variables which have a direct bearing on the levels of insurgent violence are: popular support, loss of legitimacy and the state's counter-response.     

The failure of defense planning in European Post-Communist Defense Institutions: ascertaining causation and determining solutions

By any objective measure, defense institutions in Central and Eastern Europe have all but universally been incapable of producing viable defense plans that are based on objective costing and operational planning data. This situation exists in spite the provision of considerable Western advice and assistance, let alone reporting to and receiving assessments by NATO’s International Staff under Partnership for Peace, as well as via the integrated defense planning and reporting systems. An explanation for this systematic failure across European post-Communist defense institutions can be found in the continued slow development of an over-arching policy framework which directs and approves all activities of the armed forces, as well as the de-centralization of financial decision-making down to capability providers. The essay ends with an examination of the adverse effects of the early introduction of planning programming, budgeting system (PPBS), have had on the development of effective policy and planning capabilities within these defense institutions.     

GNSS应急辅助定位及精度评估方法研究

在可视卫星数少于4颗、无法进行传统导航解算的恶劣环境下,导航接收机可利用外部高程气压计提供的高程或者内部守时模块的钟差等信息进行应急辅助定位。在该应急辅助定位工作模式的误差分析中,传统导航定位误差传递模型无法适用。针对此问题,本文在研究三星结合高程、三星结合钟差、双星结合高程钟差等几种应急辅助定位原理的基础上,给出了新的应急辅助定位误差传递的分析模型,利用仿真算例验证了该模型的正确性。最后通过对定位精度的分析,说明根据卫星分布特点可以按照本文方法量化得到伪距测量与辅助信息的精度的最优数量级关系,可以用最小代价实现定位精度的提升。该结论可指导接收机外部辅助器件的选择。     

Clash of counterterrorism-assistance-seeking states and their super power sponsors: Implications on the war against Boko Haram

ABSTRACT

Decade-long security cooperation and counterterrorism engagements in Nigeria have failed to bring down Boko Haram or at least weaken its terrorist structures and transnational spread. I argue that disconnects between counterterrorism-assistance seeking states and their superpower sponsors are implicated in the intractability of Boko Haram's insurgency in Nigeria. Why is the U.S. counterterrorism intervention to individual MNJTF countries (i.e. troop contribution, military funding and intelligence support) ‘lopsided’, ‘fragmented’ and ‘unevenly distributed;’ and how are these implicated in the fight against Boko Haram terrorism? This has impacted negatively on MNJTF countries – lack of cooperation, divisiveness and individualism in coordinating and forging offensives against Boko Haram. These concerns interface several blind spots in the picture of external influences on military’s approach to Boko Haram. I elicit primary data from top military officers. I conclude by predicting the implications and consequences of these counterterrorism complexities, and their potency to defeat or encourage Boko Haram terror.     

A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS OF THE NEXUS BETWEEN DEFENCE SPENDING AND GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: A COMMENT

Abstract

This paper explains and assesses the UK experience with determining prices and profitability for non-competitive defence contracts. Three periods are considered, namely pre-1968, the 1968 Profit Formula Agreement and the changes introduced in 2014. Two cases of ‘excessive’ profits were major determinants of the 1968 Profit Formula Agreement; but continued dissatisfaction with the 1968 Agreement led to changes in 2014. The historical overview of UK experience provides a basis for understanding current UK policy and offers insights for other countries facing similar policy challenges. A critique is presented of UK policy on single source pricing and profitability.     

Defence spending and economic growth in South Africa: A supply and demand model*

This paper provides a contribution to the growing corpus of knowledge and understanding of the interaction between economic growth and defence spending in South Africa by specifying a Keynesian simultaneous equation model and estimating the system for the period 1961 to 1997. The model contains a growth equation, a savings equation, a trade balance equation and a military burden equation and when estimated by single equation and systems estimation methods is relatively well specified. There is evidence of an overall negative effect of military spending on the economy over this period, though the significance of individual coefficients is low. There is certainly no evidence of any positive impact, suggesting that cuts in military spending do present an opportunity for improved macroeconomic performance.     

How Different Terrorist Attacks Affect Stock Markets

Terrorist attacks adversely affect the Pakistani stock market. However, such effect is short-lived: the market recovers from terrorist shocks in one day. The impact of attack depends on the locations and types of attack. The more severe the attack (i.e. more people killed), the more negative is the KSE-100 index return. Most interestingly, stock market contains information about future attacks. In sum, different tactics of terrorists have varied effects on financial markets, which in turn can predict terrorist attacks.     

海拔高度对发动机泵机组性能的影响

介绍250型泵机组基本参数,详细阐述该型发动机泵机组的动力传递关系,应用FST2E型测试台架开展泵机组发动机高原效能模拟试验,获取发动机在不同海拔高度的功率、燃油消耗率和油耗量数据,拟合生成发动机负荷特性曲线。定量分析不同海拔高度发动机功率下降对离心泵体积流量、效率、扬程等的影响,得出泵机组体积流量、扬程、效率的下降规律。研究结果可为现有泵机组的使用及新型泵机组的研制提供理论依据和数据参考。     

微型波力发电装置的捕浪器研究

针对漂浮式微型波力发电装置,根据弗汝德·克雷洛夫假定法对几种常用形状浮子所受波浪力的大小进行了计算,得出垂直圆柱形浮子吸收波浪能效果最佳的结论;运用装置和浮子共振时吸收能量最大的原理,对垂直圆柱形浮子的基本参数进行了研究,为漂浮式微型波力发电装置捕浪器浮子的设计打下了基础。     

瞄准线稳定精度的影响因素仿真

瞄准线稳定精度是直升机载稳瞄系统的关键技术指标之一,它影响着系统的其他关键性指标如照射精度、跟踪精度、作用距离等。因此提高瞄准线稳定精度是设计和研制机载稳瞄系统至关重要的一项任务。论文分析和研究了影响瞄准线稳定精度的因素,并采用Simulink建立数学模型,对瞄准线稳定精度的影响因素进行仿真分析,得到各因素对稳定精度的影响趋势,为机载稳瞄系统的设计工作提供了理论基础。