Estimating failure time distribution and its parameters based on intermediate data from a Wiener degradation model

Instead of measuring a Wiener degradation or performance process at predetermined time points to track degradation or performance of a product for estimating its lifetime, we propose to obtain the first‐passage times of the process over certain nonfailure thresholds. Based on only these intermediate data, we obtain the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and uniformly most accurate confidence interval for the mean lifetime. For estimating the lifetime distribution function, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator and a new estimator and prove that, by increasing the sample size of the intermediate data, these estimators and the above‐mentioned estimator of the mean lifetime can achieve the same levels of accuracy as the estimators assuming one has failure times. Thus, our method of using only intermediate data is useful for highly reliable products when their failure times are difficult to obtain. Furthermore, we show that the proposed new estimator of the lifetime distribution function is more accurate than the standard and modified maximum likelihood estimators. We also obtain approximate confidence intervals for the lifetime distribution function and its percentiles. Finally, we use light‐emitting diodes as an example to illustrate our method and demonstrate how to validate the Wiener assumption during the testing. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Interface defeat studies of long-rod projectile impacting on ceramic targets

The interface defeat phenomenon always occurs when a long-rod projectile impacting on the ceramic target with certain velocity, i.e., the projectile is forced to flow radially on the surface of ceramic plates for a period of time without significant penetration. Interface defeat has a direct effect upon the ballistic performance of the armor piercing projectile, which is studied numerically and theoretically at present. Firstly, by modeling the projectiles and ceramic targets with the SPH (Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics) particles and Lagrange finite elements, the systematic numerical simulations on interface defeat are performed with the commercial finite element program AUTODYN. Three different responses, i.e., complete interface defeat, dwell and direct penetration, are reproduced in different types of ceramic targets (bare, buffered, radially confined and oblique). Furthermore, by adopting the validated numerical algorithms, constitutive models and the corresponding material parameters, the influences of projectile (material, diameter, nose shape), constitutive models of ceramic (JH-1 and JH-2 models), buffer and cover plate (thickness, constraints, material), as well as the prestress acted on the target (radial and hydrostatic) on the interface defeat (transition velocity and dwell time) are systematically investigated. Finally, based on the energy conservation approach and taking the strain rate effect of ceramic material into account, a modified model for predicting the upper limit of transition velocity is proposed and validated. The present work and derived conclusions can provide helpful reference for the design and optimization of both the long-rod projectile and ceramic armor.     

Nonperiodic preventive maintenance for repairable systems

As a complex system with multiple components usually deteriorates with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to keep the system functioning in a good state to prolong its effective age. In this study, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deterioration of a repairable system, and the optimal nonperiodic PM schedule can be determined to minimize the expected total cost per unit time. However, since the determination of such optimal PM policies may involve numerous uncertainties, which typically make the analyses difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data, a Bayesian decision model, which utilizes all available information effectively, is also proposed for determining the optimal PM strategies. A numerical example with a real failure data set is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results show that the optimal schedules derived by Bayesian approach are relatively more conservative than that for non‐Bayesian approach because of the uncertainty of the intensity function, and if the intensity function are updated using the collected data set, which indicates more severe deterioration than the prior belief, replacing the entire system instead of frequent PM activities before serious deterioration is suggested. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

基于TOPSIS的战区高层反导威胁评估

在分析战区高层反导威胁评估特点的基础上,建立了以来袭TBM发射点、预测落点、射程等为核心的战区高层反导威胁评估模型指标体系并进行了相应的量化,然后利用基于熵值权重确定的TOPSIS理论对模型进行求解。通过实例证明所提出的战区高层反导威胁评估模型和算法的有效性,对研究美军的战区高层反导武器系统具有一定的借鉴意义。     

形象记忆在数学学习中的应用

根据高中数学知识特点及学习方法,在数学概念、公式、定理等的教学中利用形象记忆,有助于学生正确理解基本概念,掌握公式和定理,并且可以培养学生的学习兴趣,提高数学学习的能力。在数学教学中利用形象记忆,也要注意使用方法和范围。     

高架仓库应用超细干粉灭火系统可行性分析

高架仓库具有高度高、空间大、货物分层密集存放、灭火难度大等特点,而超细干粉灭火装置灭火剂释放后,达到灭火浓度的粉雾能够迅速弥漫保护空间,笼罩保护物。在对高架仓库常见灭火系统进行分析的基础上,提出了超细干粉灭火系统在立体货架上分层布置、分区启动的应用形式及方法,并通过模拟灭火试验,分析了超细干粉灭火系统应用于高架仓库的可行性。结果表明：超细干粉灭火系统可有效扑灭高架仓库初期火灾。     

基于G-AHP的非致命性武器驱散效能评估

定义了非致命性武器驱散效能的概念;根据非致命性武器的研发目的和应用实际,对影响其驱散效能的各相关因素进行逐层递阶划分,建立了较为全面的指标评估体系;提出非致命性武器效能G-AHP评估方法,借鉴专家经验,实现了非致命性武器装备驱散效能的量化评估;案例计算结果符合实际,验证了灰色层次分析法的可行性,为下一步有针对性地使用非致命性武器,提供了有力的科学依据。     

一步法制备石蜡微胶囊的中试研究及性能表征

采用一步法在100L反应釜内进行石蜡微胶囊制备的中试,表征了石蜡微胶囊的微胶囊化率、粒径和热性能,探讨了中试工艺对产品性能的影响。结果表明中试产品与实验室小试产品的性能基本接近。中试石蜡微胶囊的微胶囊化率为70％,平均粒径为54．0μm,相变范围为40～80℃,相变峰值和热焓分别为65℃,114J／g,分解温度达250℃。     

高速水射流倒空弹体装药安全性研究

本文阐述了高速水射流倒空弹体装药的机理,建立了确定水射流引爆炸药的临界速度的模拟实验方法和模型,进行了高速水射流冲击炸药的安全性试验,并对试验结果进行了分析,证明在工作泵压下高速水射流倒空弹体装药安全、可靠。     

基于AHP的射手综合素质的三级模糊综合评判

针对装甲机械化部队射手素质评价存在的评价内容不全、指标选取不合理等诸多问题,提出了一种基于层次分析法(AHP)和模糊评价法的射手综合素质的三级模糊综合评判模型。首先,在对射手综合素质深刻剖析的基础上,建立了射手综合素质评价指标体系,并运用层次分析法确定了各指标权重;然后,运用模糊综合评价法构建了射手综合素质的三级模糊综合评判模型;最后,通过实例验证了该模型的科学性与实用性。