Damage accumulation and probability of kill for gun and target engagements

Determination of the gunfire probability of kill against a target requires two parameters to be taken into consideration: the likelihood of hitting the target (susceptibility) and the conditional probability of kill given a hit (vulnerability). Two commonly used methods for calculating the latter probability are (1) treating each hit upon the target independently, and (2) setting an exact number of hits to obtain a target kill. Each of these methods contains an implicit assumption about the probability distribution of the number of hits‐to‐kill. Method (1) assumes that the most likely kill scenario occurs with exactly one hit, whereas (2) implies that achieving a precise number of hits always results in a kill. These methods can produce significant differences in the predicted gun effectiveness, even if the mean number of hits‐to‐kill for each distribution is the same. We therefore introduce a new modeling approach with a more general distribution for the number of hits‐to‐kill. The approach is configurable to various classes of damage mechanism and is able to match both methods (1) and (2) with a suitable choice of parameter. We use this new approach to explore the influence of various damage accumulation models on the predicted effectiveness of weapon‐target engagements.     

旋转自稳定末敏子弹运动特性分析

为研究某型旋转自稳定末敏子弹运动特性,充分考虑末敏子弹的结构强非对称特点和其初始抛撒条件,引入动不平衡弹体模型,推导超大攻角条件下子弹的空间6自由度弹道方程,计算分析子弹的稳态扫描运动特性。结果表明:子弹体的质量分布非对称和初始抛撒角速度是子弹药实现稳态扫描运动的必要条件;子弹扫描频率只由抛撒角速度ω_(σ0)决定,且和ω_(σ0)正相关;初始俯仰角φ_(a0)≥0°时,扫描角整体呈增大趋势,初始俯仰角φ_(a0)0°时,扫描角整体变化趋势为先减小后增大;扫描面积与配重-全弹质量比、初始俯仰角、初始偏航角和初始角速度呈正相关,与均质圆柱体转动惯量比呈负相关。     

身管自重弯曲对射击精度的影响分析与修正

运用有限元方法计算出身管在自重作用下不同射角时炮口端的弯曲度,得出炮口角随射角的变化关系,分析身管自重弯曲对火炮射击精度的影响,并建立身管弯曲的修正模型。证明身管的自重弯曲是影响射击精度的不可忽略的因素,提出了一种计算弯曲度和修正射击的方法。     

一种天基测向初轨确定方法

研究了测向数据下的天基初步轨道确定,提出了一种矢量投影法,利用矢量投影建立了基本条件方程组,把现有方法统一起来,并易于扩展为其他类型观测数据下的初定轨.同时研究了迭代初值求解、平凡解初值消除与迭代加速方法等相关问题.采用仿真算例检验本文提出的方法,仿真结果证明了本文方法的有效性.     

30mm半穿甲弹斜侵彻陶瓷/钢复合装甲的弹着角效应研究

设计了30mm半穿甲弹斜侵彻陶瓷/钢复合靶的弹道试验,采用高速摄像记录了弹靶作用过程,研究了弹着角、弹丸位移以及背板变形挠度的图像测量方法,通过仿真验证了该方法的可行性与准确性.基于高速摄像序列图像对弹靶作用过程进行了测量分析,结合试验数据研究了弹着角对半穿甲弹侵彻效能的影响.结果表明:弹着角导致弹丸受靶板的不对称阻力作用,侧向力及侧向力矩使得弹丸在侵彻过程中不断偏转,表现为侵彻路径呈曲线;在相同速度条件下,随着弹着角的增大,侵靶时间延长,背板变形挠度减小,侵彻效能降低.     

潜艇鱼雷攻击可攻区域

攻击水面舰艇是潜艇的主要作战任务之一.潜艇发现目标后,对目标进行可攻区域的分析判断是潜艇后续占位攻击行动的基础和前提.以潜艇鱼雷攻击为背景,通过对鱼雷有效射击区域和鱼雷攻击可攻性的分析研究,得出潜艇鱼雷攻击极限攻击角和与之相对应的可攻区域,为潜艇鱼雷攻击的占位机动和火控系统仿真建模提供了参考依据,完善了潜艇鱼雷攻击作战使用理论.     

基于贝叶斯网络的潜艇攻击决策研究

BN(贝叶斯网)被认为是人工智能研究中不确定性知识表示和推理的重要工具,广泛应用到复杂系统的建模等领域。贝叶斯网络高效的推理算法非常适合解决不确定性军事决策问题,分析了潜艇攻击决策问题的复杂性和不确定性,提出了构建贝叶斯网络进行攻击决策的步骤,通过具体实例,对用贝叶斯网络推理解决潜艇攻击决策问题进行了初步探讨。     

Influence of active constrained layer damping on the coupled vibration response of functionally graded magneto-electro-elastic plates with skewed edges

This article makes the first attempt in assessing the influence of active constrained layer damping (ACLD) treatment towards precise control of frequency responses of functionally graded skew-magneto-electro-elastic (FGSMEE) plates by employing finite element methods. The materials are functionally graded across the thickness of the plate in terms of modest power-law distributions. The principal equations of motion of FGSMEE are derived via Hamilton’s principle and solved using condensation technique. The effect of ACLD patches are modelled by following the complex modulus approach (CMA). Additionally, distinctive emphasis is laid to evaluate the influence of geometrical skewness on the attenuation capabilities of the plate. The accuracy of the current analysis is corroborated with comparison of previous researches of similar kind. Additionally, a complete parametric study is directed to understand the combined impacts of various factors like coupling fields, patch location, fiber orientation of piezoelectric patch in association with skew angle and power-law index.     

机械抖动偏频激光陀螺静态测角方法

阐述采用机械抖动偏频激光陀螺进行静态角度测量的原理,分析测角随机误差与激光陀螺角随机游走系数、测量时间的关系,通过转台分度误差实验验证了测角随机误差公式。采用排列互比法对测角系统误差和转台分度误差进行分离。实验与理论分析表明,静态测角方法具有良好的环境适应性和稳定性,测角随机误差优于0.26″,系统误差优于1″。最后分析了进一步减小测角随机误差和系统误差的措施。     

尾流自导鱼雷直进射击系统误差的提前角修正方法

针对尾流自导鱼雷直进射击方式下弹道简化产生的命中结果系统误差问题,采用几何分析法,首先,分析了尾流自导鱼雷的直进射击原理;然后,依据尾流自导鱼雷弹道过程,建立了尾流自导鱼雷命中点偏差的解析计算模型,并分析了该偏差对鱼雷命中效果的影响;最后,研究了消除该系统误差的提前角修正方法。通过实例论证了该修正方法的可行性和有效性。