吊放声纳主动工作模式探测域建模与仿真

水声环境对于吊放声纳搜潜效果影响很大,以往的水声环境对吊声探测影响建模尚未涉及吊声立体探测域,不能为吊声搜潜战术研究提供有效支撑。在对声传播损失、海洋环境噪声和混响进行深入分析和建模的基础上,根据吊声探测机理建立了主动探测概率模型,仿真分析了吊声主动探测概率的三维空间分布,并提出了吊声搜潜战术应以三维非连续探测域为基础,结合战法实验等新手段进行不确定性研究的建议。     

潜艇在水面目标位置散布概率密度的计算方法

潜艇声纳在较远距离上发现水面目标时,探测和解算的目标运动要素具有较大的误差.利用泰勒公式,将目标位置计算公式进行简化处理,结合概率论的相关理论,求解目标位置散布概率密度.针对典型战术态势,计算不同时刻目标位置散布概率密度,绘制概率密度图,与目标位置散布仿真图进行对比.     

火控雷达协同防空目标跟踪技术

针对火控雷达抗反辐射导弹的对抗要求,将雷达组网理论应用于火控雷达,提出了火控雷达协同防空目标跟踪方法.首先分析了火控雷达目标跟踪原理,同时给出了跟踪性能的评价指标;其次,为了克服单部雷达的局限性研究了组网火控雷达目标跟踪方法;而后,研究了不同的交替周期对系统的影响;最后对不同工作模式的跟踪效果进行了仿真.结果证明采用组网雷达目标跟踪方法可以同时实现对反辐射导弹载机的准确跟踪和对反辐射导弹的有效对抗.     

目标起伏特性对雷达威力性能的影响分析

介绍了典型雷达目标RCS起伏模型,阐述了起伏目标在实际中的应用,建立了目标损耗和雷达作用距离之间的关系,为不同目标的等效替代推算提供了理论依据.验证了雷达目标满足卡平方分布时发现概率和起伏因子之间的关系.并针对不同类型的起伏目标,建立了雷达探测距离和发现概率之间的关系,为雷达的威力检测和飞行目标的航线设计提供依据.     

大型舰艇系统破损失效概率计算

对于大型舰船,多次命中和结构防护成为破损失效概率计算的主要问题,该文通过对各种算法的比较和研究,综合了逻辑代数法、网格积分法和蒙特卡罗随机模拟法的优点,较好地解决了这些问题,得到了满意的计算结果。     

基于装备损伤概率的舰艇动力系统安全性分析

考虑舰艇损害管制过程中人员因素对系统的影响,运用马尔科夫链对人员操作引起的舰艇动力系统损伤概率进行修正,根据修正后的毁伤概率,建立概率危险性评估模型,引入危险度指标,对动力系统在遭受武器攻击情况下的危险度进行了计算,并依据计算结果对系统安全度进行评定。     

舰船拖带安全评估的故障树方法

提出了一种从故障树分析的角度进行舰船拖带安全评估的方法。采用专家评估和模糊集理论相结合的原理得到故障树中基本事件发生的模糊概率,然后进行故障树定性和定量分析。该方法能合理和有效地预测作业系统的安全性及其薄弱环节。以断缆事件分析为例,对该安全评估方法做了概要阐述。     

Waiting time analysis of the M/G/1 queue with finite retrial group

We consider an M/G/1 retrial queue with finite capacity of the retrial group. First, we obtain equations governing the dynamic of the waiting time. Then, we focus on the numerical inversion of the density function and the computation of moments. These results are used to approximate the waiting time of the M/G/1 queue with infinite retrial group for which direct analysis seems intractable. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Some probability functions in reliability and their applications

There has been much research on the general failure model recently. In the general failure model, when the unit fails at its age t, Type I failure (minor failure) occurs with probability 1 ? p(t) and Type II failure (catastrophic failure) occurs with probability p(t). In the previous research, some specific shapes (constant, non‐decreasing, or bathtub‐shape) on the probability function p(t) are assumed. In this article, general results on some probability functions are obtained and applied to study the shapes of p(t). The results are also applied to determining the optimal inspection and allocation policies in maintenance problems. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

A stochastic assignment problem

There are n boxes with box i having a quota value Balls arrive sequentially, with each ball having a binary vector attached to it, with the interpretation being that if X_i = 1 then that ball is eligible to be put in box i. A ball's vector is revealed when it arrives and the ball can be put in any alive box for which it is eligible, where a box is said to be alive if it has not yet met its quota. Assuming that the components of a vector are independent, we are interested in the policy that minimizes, either stochastically or in expectation, the number of balls that need arrive until all boxes have met their quotas. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 62:23–31, 2015