以色列反恐情报战略探讨

以色列是世界上第一个遭受国际恐怖主义威胁的国家。但通过明确分工和行之有效的反恐措施,以色列已经能够对付不断升级的恐怖主义威胁。自“9·11”事件以来,全球许多国家都开始向以色列求教国土安全方面的知识和专业技术。     

基于D矩阵的舰船电子装备综合诊断方法

针对舰船电子装备综合诊断实现要求,提出一种基于故障-测试依赖性关系(D)矩阵的综合诊断方法,利用同一D矩阵分别完成对舰船电子装备的测试性分析评估、测试诊断需求分配、诊断测试序列生成和诊断信息的共享,实现舰船电子装备综合诊断各过程诊断信息模型的一致.该方法已在某舰载电子装备综合诊断实现中得到验证和应用.     

新时期警卫阵地建设的思考

警卫阵地建设工作是警卫基础工作的重要内容之一,对确保警卫安全,圆满完成警卫任务意义重大。因此,必须采取切实措施,加强警卫阵地建设。     

基于硬体拖靶的拖曳式干扰系统构建

战场复杂电磁环境对防空导弹提出了抗拖曳式干扰的新要求,在组织进行实际对抗效果飞行检验时,存在导弹威胁拖曳式诱饵载机安全的风险,影响试验的组织和决策。介绍了拖曳式干扰的系统组成、工作原理和实际使用问题,提出了基于现有硬体拖靶系统构建拖曳式干扰系统的方法,分析了拖曳式诱饵对拖靶系统飞行性能的影响。该构建方法可以有效解决困扰试验的安全问题,为后续系统的建设和试验提供参考。     

基于模糊证据理论的船舶安全评估

针对船舶安全评估过程中的诸多不确定因素,提出了一种基于模糊证据理论的安全评估方法.将证据体空间中的事件视为模糊子集,并引入模糊概率,更好地描述了专家意见(或知识),给出了质量分配函数的表示.最后,结合某船舶系统,给出了其安全评估的具体实现过程.结果表明,该方法可靠、有效.     

军用“三网合一”系统的方案设计与安全性分析

分析了军用电话网、军用广播电视网和指挥自动化网的现状,明确了军用“三网合一”的目标和可行性,提出了一种适合我军战时需要的“三网合一”实现方案,着重描述了该方案的结构、组成、工作原理及网络接口设计,对该方案的安全性能及使用的关键技术进行了分析,并给出了提高系统安全性的相关措施。     

More on the search for an infiltrator

We have asymptotically solved a discrete search game on an array of n ordered cells with two players: infiltrator (hider) and searcher, when the probability of survival approaches 1. The infiltrator wishes to reach the last cell in finite time, and the searcher has to defend that cell. When the players occupy the same cell, the searcher captures the infiltrator with probability 1 ? z. The payoff to the hider is the probability that the hider reaches the last cell without getting captured. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 49: 1–14, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.1047     

The 1983 Nuclear Crisis – Lessons for Deterrence Theory and Practice

This article distills insights for the scholarship of deterrence by examining the 1983 nuclear crisis – the moment of maximum danger of the late Cold War. Important contributions notwithstanding, our understanding of this episode still has caveats, and a significant pool of theoretical lessons for strategic studies remain to be learned. Utilizing newly available sources, this article suggests an alternative interpretation of Soviet and US conduct. It argues that the then US deterrence strategy almost produced Soviet nuclear overreaction by nearly turning a NATO exercise into a prelude to a preventive Soviet attack. Building on historical findings, this article offers insights about a mechanism for deterrence effectiveness evaluation, recommends establishing a structure responsible for this endeavor, and introduces a new theoretical term to the strategic studies lexicon – a ‘culminating point of deterrence’.     

The 1907 Naval War Plans and the second Hague peace conference: A case of propaganda 1

The phenomenon of mutual sea denial had rendered offensive naval actions such as commercial blockade impossible in the narrow seas around Europe. Consequently, the First Sea Lord, Admiral Sir John Fisher, abandoned commercial blockade for the safer option of interdicting enemy commerce on the high seas where the Royal Navy could control communications. The proposal to extend immunity to all private property at sea at the 1907 Hague Conference threatened this strategy. As part of a wider campaign to convince the British establishment to oppose immunity, Fisher created the 1907 Naval War Plans to directly influence Cabinet decision-making. Fisher's close involvement in the creation of the ‘Plans’ indicates that they are an expression of Fisher's strategic vision. Moreover, Fisher's attempt to influence the Cabinet asks questions of the bureaucratic decision-making process within the British establishment before 1914.     

THE LAND IS THE ECONOMY

This article revisits Zimbabwe's land question from the vantage point of having been written five years after the ‘fast-track’ land redistribution programme was launched. Without belittling the accomplishments of land reform in the first 19 years of the country's independence, it is generally clear that the sweeping programme of 2000–2003, the most comprehensive of its kind, created a new paradigm. Clearly, the consequences will take many years to work themselves out through the country's political, economic and social fabric.

The article briefly defines what may be termed ‘old’ and ‘new’ versions of Zimbabwe's land question before outlining the salient aspects of the reform process itself. It then assesses the outcomes of the redistribution, the apparent lacuna between ‘land’ and ‘agrarian’ reform, and the debate that the reform process itself has kindled. Transforming land distribution into qualitative agrarian reform has proved an Achilles heel in the arguments put forward by the proponents of the fast-track programme. Finally, recommendations are provided as to what is necessary to secure land and agrarian reform in the short, medium and long term.