Recognizing Fragmented Authority: Towards a post-Westphalian Security Order in Iraq

Abstract

The rollback of Daesh’s territorial control during 2017 has (re-)established an area of limited statehood in large parts of Iraq that may endure for many years. The government of Iraq projects its authority into a large geographical and political space that it shares with a multitude of other state, non-state and hybrid actors, competing and collaborating to achieve advantageous security and political outcomes. This paper examines the heterarchy of actors in post-Daesh Iraq to develop a typology and start a critical discussion about post-Westphalian alternatives for security governance in Iraq during the coming period of reconstruction and reconciliation.     

The Damoclean sword of offensive cyber: Policy uncertainty and collective insecurity

Cyberspace is a new domain of operation, with its own characteristics. Cyber weapons differ qualitatively from kinetic ones: They generate effects by non-kinetic means through information, technology, and networks. Their properties, opportunities, and constraints are comparable to the qualitative difference between conventional and nuclear weapons. New weapons and their target sets in a new domain raise a series of unresolved policy challenges at the domestic, bilateral, and international levels about deterrence, attribution, and response. They also introduce new risks: uncertainty about unintended consequences, expectations of efficacy, and uncertainty about both the target’s and the international community’s response. Cyber operations offer considerable benefits for states to achieve strategic objectives both covertly and overtly. However, without a strategic framework to contain and possibly deter their use, make state and non-state behavior more predictable in the absence of reciprocal norms, and limit their impact, an environment where states face persistent attacks that nonetheless fall below the threshold of armed conflict presents a policy dilemma that reinforces collective insecurity.     

The Russian hybrid warfare strategy – neither Russian nor strategy

Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its initial actions in eastern Ukraine in 2014, the term hybrid warfare has received much public attention. Many have argued that the Russian actions we saw in Ukraine were part of a completely new strategy while others have suggested that there was nothing new in Russia’s actions. This article takes a critical look at these claims. Through the assessment of the history of the term hybrid warfare and a rigorous analysis of the so-called Gerasimov doctrine, this study finds that the Russian hybrid warfare strategy is rather a western myth than a formal comprehensive Russian strategic concept. Additionally, through the assessment of the Russian use of information operations and the way she has utilised the cyberspace in several recent conflicts, the study finds that against all claims Russia did not make these areas its main battlefield, but rather has been using them in support of its traditional concepts.     

逐步Ⅰ型混合截尾试验下Burr部件的可靠性分析

在逐步Ⅰ型混合截尾试验下,研究了Burr部件寿命参数及可靠性指标的极大似然估计和Bayes估计.利用简单迭代方法,给出了寿命参数和可靠性指标的极大似然估计的数值解.然后利用Lindely Bayes近似算法得到了平方损失下寿命参数以及可靠性指标的Bayes估计.最后,运用Monte-Carlo方法对各估计结果作了模拟比较,结果表明Bayes估计较极大似然估计的误差小.     

酚醛-石英混杂纤维增强苯并噁嗪复合材料高温失效特征

通过模压工艺制备了酚醛-石英混织纤维增强苯并噁嗪复合材料(P-Q/BZ)试样,考察了其力学性能、烧蚀性能和耐冲刷性能,分析了该试样在高温环境中的主要失效特征,研究其在高温环境中的适用性。结果表明,未经热处理的P-Q/BZ试样平均弯曲强度、弯曲模量和层间剪切强度分别为283 MPa、10.8 GPa和22.6 MPa;经300℃,N_2处理15 min后,试样均匀膨胀,厚度增加22%,弯曲强度、弯曲模量和层间剪切强度分别下降58%、41%和58%;在氧乙炔焰的平均质量烧蚀率和线烧蚀率分别为0.048 4 g/s和-0.081 mm/s,烧蚀后试样宏观不分层,表面炭层微观分层严重,酚醛纤维热解炭、树脂基体热解炭、熔融石英纤维以及碳硅氧化产物相互分离;该试样耐冲刷能力差,在发动机尾焰烧蚀平台模拟的热-力耦合环境中的质量损失率高达59%。P-Q/BZ复合材料需要解决热解膨胀问题,进一步提高抗冲刷性能。     

汽车辅助车闸的自适应控制

采用Guauss Seidel模型参数调整法 ,建立了辅助车闸位置控制装置的动态数学模型。在此基础上 ,运用超稳定理论设计了模型参考自适应位置控制系统 ,并在基于MATLAB软件包的硬件在环系统仿真平台上 ,进行系统的软、硬件混合仿真研究。试验表明理论仿真结果和系统实时响应吻合。从而 ,为在复杂环境下控制车速、车距提供了有效的实验技术手段和简捷的系统控制方法     

混合模糊测试中混合符号执行优化策略评估与分析

针对传统混合模糊测试提升技术多聚焦于利用多种动静态分析手段辅助而忽略了混合符号执行自身性能的问题,提出一种混合模糊测试平衡点模型,并基于该模型对主流混合符号执行方案进行剖析,包括污点分析辅助模糊测试、混合模糊测试以及混合符号执行,归纳了6种符号执行方案,基于混合符号执行引擎Triton复现了6种符号执行方案,并通过10个典型真实程序进行了测试评估。从效率、内存、覆盖率三个维度对各个方案进行性能对比与影响因素分析。实验证明,优化方案都可以消除不必要的约束并减少时间和空间开销,但约束缩减会造成信息丢失,造成覆盖率降低。基于实验数据分析,提出了一个优化方案的性能序列,并提出三种针对不同测试需求的优化方案。     

Ku波段高功率TM0n-TM01混合模式转换器设计(高功率微波专题组稿)*

由于过模Ku波段高功率微波返波管通常输出TM0n混合模式,在保证较高能量转换效率的条件下,难以同时兼顾其输出模式的纯度,而辐射终端为达到理想发射效果则要求单一模式馈入,这就给输出混合模式微波源的实际应用带来困难。针对这一技术难点,本文提出了一种结构紧凑的TM0n-TM01（n ≤ 3）混合模式转换器的设计方法,可以实现在高功率容量条件下,较宽频带范围内,高效地将TM0n混合模式转换为单一的TM01模,降低了此类高频段HPM源模式纯化设计的难度。     

舰载机多机一体化机务保障调度研究

针对舰载机多机一体化机务保障调度问题,以出树、入树的形式描述实际保障过程中并行工序的约束关系,以最大保障完工时间和资源负载均衡性为目标,构建了舰载机多机一体化机务保障非线性多目标混合流水车间调度模型,并设计了一种结合基于Insert的动态邻域爬山搜索策略和并行工序的同步化修正的Memetic算法求解该模型。最后通过实例仿真验证了模型和所提算法的可行性和有效性。     

混合动力装甲车辆能量管理策略实时仿真

为解决混合动力装甲车辆多动力源输出优化匹配难题,针对一种具有3个动力源的混合动力系统中各动力源的输出特性和驱动电机功率需求特点,制定了具有双层结构的能量管理策略:顶层的系统功率分配策略完成负载功率估计及其在各动力源间的分配;底层的部件级控制策略实现发动机-发电机组和动力电池的优化控制。通过构建一种分布式硬件在环仿真平台对能量管理策略进行仿真验证。结果表明:混合动力系统能够很好地满足负载功率需求,实现了对多个目标的优化控制。