基于前景理论和证据推理的混合型多属性决策方法

针对属性权重完全未知的混合型多属性决策问题,提出一种基于前景理论和证据推理的决策方法。通过直觉模糊数对精确数、区间数和语言变量3种混合型属性的决策信息进行统一,根据前景理论对决策信息进行转化;提出基于直觉模糊熵与相似度的属性可靠性评估方法,结合属性重要度确定属性权重;采用证据推理算法集结属性信息,得到方案的综合前景值,并以此进行方案排序。算例分析结果表明,所提方法具有较强的区分能力,能够有效降低决策结果的不确定性,对混合型多属性决策问题具有较好的适用性。     

War,vagueness and hybrid war

It has frequently been observed in the literature on hybrid wars that there is a grey zone between peace and war, and that hybrid wars are conflicts which are not clear cases of war. In this paper, I attempt to illuminate this grey zone and the concept and nature of war from the philosophical discussions of vagueness and institutional facts. Vague terms are characterized by the fact that there is no non-arbitrary boundary between entities which lie in their extension, and entities which do not lie in their extension. I apply a theory of vagueness to notions such as “war” and “peace” and go on to suggest that the exact boundary for what counts as a war or not is arbitrary. However, the context in which the conflict occurs determines a range of possible locations for this boundary. The most important contextual parameter is in this respect how the parties to the conflict themselves conceptualize the conflict. I suggest that this can in various ways help us understand grey-zone conflicts.     

混合隔振系统中电磁作动器的优化设计

由于混合隔振系统中的电磁作动器对电磁力、体积重量、损耗等指标有着严格的限制,因此电磁作动器的优化设计显得十分重要。为此,提出了电磁作动器系统参数(包括几何尺寸参数和电参数)的优化设计方法,推导了电磁作动器总损耗与系统参数间的关系。通过有限元分析软件ANSYS中的优化设计模块,使用ANSYS参数化设计语言建立了在保证电磁力及体积限制条件下,以总损耗最小为目标函数的三维参数化分析模型,多次循环迭代求解后得到了较为优化的系统参数。仿真及实验结果表明:按照该方法设计的电磁作动器能够满足各项设计指标要求,且性能比其他参数下更为优化。     

浅析达尔富尔和平进程及其面临的挑战

达尔富尔危机始于2003年2月。这场危机主要是由北方的游牧民与南方的定居农民之间对生存资源的争夺而引发的国内冲突。在国际社会的斡旋下,苏丹政府已与几个反政府武装签署了和平协议,并同意部署联合国-非盟混合维和行动,达尔富尔地区的和平进程已步入正轨。由于苏丹国内的复杂形势和困难,达尔富尔地区的和平进程仍面临诸多挑战,和平与和解之路仍然漫长。     

Effects of jute fibre content on the mechanical and dynamic mechanical properties of the composites in structural applications

Due to notable characteristics, sustainability concept and environmental issues, hybridisation natural with synthetic fibres to fabricate composites have been rapidly gaining market share in different applications (structural, military, aerospace and automotive vehicles). Compression, tension and fatigue tests of various stacking sequences of plain jute/carbon reinforced (PVB) polyvinyl butyral by hot hydraulic press technique were experimentally conducted. Six types of fabricated composites with various constituents (jute, carbon and their hybrids) were fabricated and tested. Notably, fatigue lifetime of hybrids increases with increasing the carbon content relative to the jute fibre content. On the other hand, Jute composites possess high strain compared to pure carbon composite, which gives an overall improvement in mechanical behaviours. Interestingly, H1 hybrid with Carbon/Jute/Carbon sequences offers similar fatigue stiffness behaviour of H3 hybrid with Carbon/Jute/Carbon/Jute sequences when subjected to cyclic loading. Carbon composite (C) exhibited the highest fatigue resistance, whiles jute composite (J) possessed the highest strain and semi brittle trends in both mechanical and fatigue performance. Results concluded that plain jute fibres could partially replace high-cost synthetic carbon fibres to produce more eco-friendly hybrids to be utilised in different composites industries.     

广义逆指数分布元件的可靠性分析

在II型混合截尾样本下,得到了广义逆指数分布未知参数的最大似然估计。利用最大似然估计的渐近正态性构造了参数的渐近置信区间,运用Lindley's逼近方法和TierneyKadane's逼近方法计算出了参数的Bayes估计。最后,运用Monte-Carlo方法对上述估计方法结果作了模拟比较。     

基于Pareto排序法的战时装备维修任务多目标调度方法

针对战时武器装备维修保障问题,建立了包括最大完工时间、延迟时间和维修单元负荷在内的多目标优化调度模型。为提高解的多样性和收敛性,构建了一种基于Pareto排序法和小生境技术相结合的遗传算法用于模型求解,引入Pareto排序和拥挤距离进行适应度计算,通过混沌系统随机生成权重系数,并使用小生境技术改进选择方式。通过实例验证表明,该方法能够有效地解决装备维修多目标调度问题。     

The danger of “hybrid warfare” from a sophisticated adversary: the Russian “hybridity” in the Ukrainian conflict

The term “hybrid warfare” is a new one that the West began to use to explain its failure to cope with asymmetric threats. Focusing on the war on global terrorism, the West temporarily withdrew its attention from traditional adversaries, such as Russia, which has used this gap and has audaciously returned to the stage as a global actor. Until the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and inflaming the Ukrainian crisis, most Western authors attributed “hybrid threats” mostly to non-state actors. But the Ukrainian scenario showed the true face of “hybridity” in the modern battlefield when practised by a powerful state actor. Russian “hybrid warfare” in Ukraine has already been seen as a combination of conventional and unconventional methods, that have been complemented with other instruments of national power – diplomatic, economic and information. The purpose of this article is, through an analysis of the Ukrainian scenario, to demonstrate that although the term “hybrid” is new, the concept itself is old and is a continuation of already seen doctrine from the Cold War era. Although “hybrid threats” can come both from state and non-state actors, the Russian interference in Ukraine is proof that they are especially dangerous for the West if, or when, they are initiated from a traditional, sophisticated adversary that has the capacity to use all forms of warfare.     

脉冲等离子体推力器羽流场数值分析

为掌握脉冲等离子体推力器的羽流特性,考虑磁场对等离子体羽流的影响,结合DSMC和PIC方法建立了粒子-流体混合模拟模型,以磁流体力学模拟提供入口条件对推力器羽流开展了三维数值研究,并通过朗缪尔三探针诊断对计算结果进行了验证。研究表明,羽流膨胀过程中各组分的动力学行为差异明显;放电电流振荡会导致产生低速离子群,并会加重离子回流;电磁加速是羽流等离子体主要的加速机制,磁场对推力器羽流的流动具有重要作用。     

用于有限体积法的中心WENO混合格式

通过理论推导得到6阶中心格式与5阶WENO格式相结合的混合格式(CWENO6格式),为了提高有限体积法中高精度格式的计算效率,引入3阶MUSCL反卷积方法以取代传统有限体积法中的反卷积方法。通过不同的算例比较了CWENO6格式与WENO5格式的数值表现。结果表明,相比于传统的WENO5格式,在网格量相同的前提下,由于数值耗散较小,CWENO6格式对流动细节的描述更为准确,为有限体积法模拟三维多尺度复杂提供了一种更为有效的方法。