Value management of diagnostic equipment with cancelation,no‐show,and emergency patients

Magnetic resonance imaging and other multifunctional diagnostic facilities, which are considered as scarce resources of hospitals, typically provide services to patients with different medical needs. This article examines the admission policies during the appointment management of such facilities. We consider two categories of patients: regular patients who are scheduled in advance through an appointment system and emergency patients with randomly generated demands during the workday that must be served as soon as possible. According to the actual medical needs of patients, regular patients are segmented into multiple classes with different cancelation rates, no‐show probabilities, unit value contributions, and average service times. Management makes admission decisions on whether or not to accept a service request from a regular patient during the booking horizon to improve the overall value that could be generated during the workday. The decisions should be made by considering the cancelation and no‐show behavior of booked patients as well as the emergency patients that would have to be served because any overtime service would lead to higher costs. We studied the optimal admission decision using a continuous‐time discrete‐state dynamic programming model. Identifying an optimal policy for this discrete model is analytically intractable and numerically inefficient because the state is multidimensional and infinite. We propose to study a deterministic counterpart of the problem (i.e., the fluid control problem) and to develop a time‐based fluid policy that is shown to be asymptotically optimal for large‐scale problems. Furthermore, we propose to adopt a mixed fluid policy that is developed based on the information obtained from the fluid control problem. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this improved policy works effectively for small‐scale problems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 287–304, 2016     

学前儿童交通安全教育的价值探析

对学前儿童进行交通安全教育的直接目的是减少交通事故,保护其生命和身体,同时还具有重要的教育价值。基于教育价值的两个方面即教育的个人价值和社会价值,学前儿童交通安全教育的价值主要体现在对学前儿童的发展价值和以学前儿童为中心扩散开来的延伸价值。发展价值是指交通安全教育促进学前儿童的认知、动作、情意等方面的发展。延伸价值是指学前儿童获得的交通安全知识与意识、规则与行为、尊重与利他等对其成为合格的社会公民是一种自然而然的准备,同时在生态系统理论之下以儿童为中心扩散开来的重要他人、社会相关机构和行业等都会发生相应的改变,将最终有利于社会的进步。     

基于贝叶斯混合博弈的空袭火力资源分配决策模型

从博弈论的角度出发研究空袭火力资源的分配问题,针对空袭编队和防空火力单元攻防对抗过程中存在的不确定性、静态性以及动态性,建立基于贝叶斯混合博弈的空袭对抗火力分配模型。通过构造贝叶斯混合博弈树,采用逆向回溯法分别建立不同的博弈分析模型,利用混合粒子群算法求解那什均衡。仿真结果表明:以博弈论为背景研究空袭作战火力分配问题,符合真实的作战坏境,有效性好,有较高的理论应用价值。     

基于二元语义和比较得分算子的敏捷指挥控制决策表达方法?

敏捷指挥控制是应对现代战场复杂多变特点和快速响应要求的有效途径。在指控群体决策中,为了实现指控的敏捷性,决策成员应当尽可能快速准确地表达自己的决策信息,以利于决策信息迅速集结和提高决策质量。针对利用二元语义分析方法进行决策时决策者很难精确给出符号转移值的问题,提出一种基于比较得分算子的符号转移值确定方法,对于多个备选方案被评价到同一语言评价等级上的情况,采用比较得分算子来确定这些方案的权重,再利用转换函数将权重转换为符号转移值。最后通过算例证明方法的有效性。     

基于神经网络的模糊理论在桥梁状态评估中的应用

探讨了模糊数学中的隶属函数在桥梁技术等级状态评估中的应用.在研究现有桥梁状态评估方法的基础上,把人工神经网络和模糊数学理论结合起来应用于大跨度预应力斜拉桥的等级状态评估,建立了基于三层神经元的模糊神经网络模型,并建立结构损伤度函数及等级隶属度模型,通过样本学习训练,获取评估专家的知识及直觉思维,最终确定桥梁所对应的技术状态等级.以检测的480组索力数据作为学习样本,另外4组作为验证样本进行了索力状态评估预测.计算结果表明,网络预测值与期望值吻合良好.     

滑翔飞行器多目标弹道优化的进化-配点混合求解策略

针对高超声速滑翔飞行器弹道多目标优化问题,综合考虑计算效率和精度,结合分解进化算法与配点法提出一种混合求解策略。根据滑翔飞行器动力学模型和弹道设计中需要考虑的约束条件,建立飞行器多目标弹道优化模型。利用控制量离散化方法将多目标弹道优化问题转化为带约束的多目标参数优化问题,并采用罚函数法处理约束条件,随后利用分解多目标进化算法进行求解。为了提高弹道优化的精度,将椭球聚合法与配点法相结合,以多目标进化算法得到的Pareto解作为初始解进行迭代求解。通过典型的复杂约束多目标弹道优化的算例表明,所提出的混合求解策略能够获得满足复杂约束要求的Pareto最优解集,实现有效的多目标弹道优化。     

针对“四强”特点 培育“四力”素质

网络信息时代,面对层出不穷的不良信息,如何提高官兵抵制负面影响的素质能力,概括起来就是：要针对不良信息“腐蚀性”强的特点,不断培育官兵“乐于追随”的不变定力;要针对不良信息“迷惑性”强的特点,不断培育官兵“善于思辨”的不凡智力;要针对不良信息“煽动性”强的特点,不断培育官兵“敢于斗争”的不惧魄力;要针对不良信息“持久性”强的特点,不断培育官兵“甘于奉献”的不竭动力。     

Modern Irregular Warfare: The ISIS Case Study

ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) has become a key political and military actor in the Middle East and in North Africa. This essay aims at outlining ISIS warfare through an analysis of its operations in the frame of hybrid warfare theory proposed by Frank Hoffman. Therefore, the paper deals with: the role of terrorist tactics in ISIS warfare and the relationship between terrorism and insurgency; ISIS use of technology, mainly with regard to suicide attacks and to drones; and the relevance of urban warfare. Finally, the paper highlights how ISIS operates and the most threatening features of its warfare.     

Mean residual life of coherent systems consisting of multiple types of dependent components

Mean residual life is a useful dynamic characteristic to study reliability of a system. It has been widely considered in the literature not only for single unit systems but also for coherent systems. This article is concerned with the study of mean residual life for a coherent system that consists of multiple types of dependent components. In particular, the survival signature based generalized mixture representation is obtained for the survival function of a coherent system and it is used to evaluate the mean residual life function. Furthermore, two mean residual life functions under different conditional events on components’ lifetimes are also defined and studied.     

含有p-Laplacian算子的非齐次边值问题正解的存在性

研究非齐次边界条件下,含有p-Laplacian算子的微分方程的可解性,在Banach空间中应用Krasnoselskii不动点定理,得到了边值问题正解存在性结果。