信息管理误失灰色补偿方法

在信息采集、信息管理、信息传递过程中,数据链出现空穴、误传或丢失等情况时,将影响信息采集传递的安全性与信息管理的有效性,是信息管理与使用中一个值得关注的问题,如何对数据列进行有效补偿则是解决该问题的关键.运用灰色理论与正交试验设计方法建立了信息链缺失补偿模型并给出了信息链空穴补偿优化准则.所给出的具体的补偿实例说明信息链空穴灰色生成与正交试验设计生成是一种极为有效的信息缺失补偿方法.     

Volume discount decisions: Wealth maximization or EOQ approach?

A recent paper finds that when volume discounts are available, in some cases, reliance on the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model can induce purchasers to make wealth reducing decisions, and the Present Value (PV) approach should be preferred. While this finding is theoretically correct, the magnitudes of wealth reductions suggested by the paper's numerical examples seem to be questionable. Furthermore, the paper also finds that, in some other cases, a purchaser using the EOQ approach realizes a net increase in current wealth compared to a purchaser using the PV approach. Logic suggests that such a finding cannot be correct, since by its very definition, it is the PV approach that seeks to maximize the current wealth. We offer an alternative frame of comparison and a modified model to show that, under the paper's assumptions, the EOQ approach can never realize a net increase in current wealth compared to the current wealth generated by the PV approach. On the other hand, we also show that when typical values of the relevant parameters prevail, the additional costs imposed by the EOQ approach are not significant. Finally, we suggest that insofar as the PV approach requires greater administrative costs to implement, it may even be counterproductive to the goal of wealth maximization. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 377–389, 1998     

三维涡度方程单向周期问题的谱—差分混合格式及其误差估计

本文对非线性的三维涡度方程单向周期问题构造了一种新的谱——差分格式,并证明了格式的稳定性和收敛性。     

平台式惯导系统初始对准最佳可观性分析

首先应用线性系统的奇异值分解理论对静基座初始对准的可观性及可观度进行了深入地分析.给出了不同奇异值下系统状态可观性状况的直方图,并且计算出不同状态组合时系统奇异值的大小及对可观性的影响.理论分析表明选取(△)N、(△)E、εE为不可观测时,系统的估计效果最好.其次采用卡尔曼滤波器对可观阵的秩为7的三种状态组合进行最优估计,仿真结果验证这种论断的正确性.最后从误差分析的角度阐述了这种论断的合理性.     

逐步Ⅰ型混合截尾试验下Burr部件的可靠性分析

在逐步Ⅰ型混合截尾试验下,研究了Burr部件寿命参数及可靠性指标的极大似然估计和Bayes估计.利用简单迭代方法,给出了寿命参数和可靠性指标的极大似然估计的数值解.然后利用Lindely Bayes近似算法得到了平方损失下寿命参数以及可靠性指标的Bayes估计.最后,运用Monte-Carlo方法对各估计结果作了模拟比较,结果表明Bayes估计较极大似然估计的误差小.     

酚醛-石英混杂纤维增强苯并噁嗪复合材料高温失效特征

通过模压工艺制备了酚醛-石英混织纤维增强苯并噁嗪复合材料(P-Q/BZ)试样,考察了其力学性能、烧蚀性能和耐冲刷性能,分析了该试样在高温环境中的主要失效特征,研究其在高温环境中的适用性。结果表明,未经热处理的P-Q/BZ试样平均弯曲强度、弯曲模量和层间剪切强度分别为283 MPa、10.8 GPa和22.6 MPa;经300℃,N_2处理15 min后,试样均匀膨胀,厚度增加22%,弯曲强度、弯曲模量和层间剪切强度分别下降58%、41%和58%;在氧乙炔焰的平均质量烧蚀率和线烧蚀率分别为0.048 4 g/s和-0.081 mm/s,烧蚀后试样宏观不分层,表面炭层微观分层严重,酚醛纤维热解炭、树脂基体热解炭、熔融石英纤维以及碳硅氧化产物相互分离;该试样耐冲刷能力差,在发动机尾焰烧蚀平台模拟的热-力耦合环境中的质量损失率高达59%。P-Q/BZ复合材料需要解决热解膨胀问题,进一步提高抗冲刷性能。     

融合初值校准与二阶逼近的单星测频定位算法

为减小单星测频定位的误差,提出一种融合初值校准与二阶逼近的单星测频定位算法。该算法在卫星接收信号多普勒频移为零的时间点,通过测距获得卫星到定位目标的距离信息,利用距离信息修正轨道平面与定位目标的几何关系,为初值的选取提供校准手段;将校准的初值代入含二阶级数的定位方程泰勒展开式,通过较少次数的迭代得到定位目标的真实位置,从而降低定位的算法复杂度,提高定位精度。仿真结果表明,所提出的算法与多普勒单星定位算法相比,迭代次数和定位误差大幅度减小,其实现简单、计算量少、误差小,在单星定位研究领域具有较高的理论价值和实用价值。     

The Damoclean sword of offensive cyber: Policy uncertainty and collective insecurity

Cyberspace is a new domain of operation, with its own characteristics. Cyber weapons differ qualitatively from kinetic ones: They generate effects by non-kinetic means through information, technology, and networks. Their properties, opportunities, and constraints are comparable to the qualitative difference between conventional and nuclear weapons. New weapons and their target sets in a new domain raise a series of unresolved policy challenges at the domestic, bilateral, and international levels about deterrence, attribution, and response. They also introduce new risks: uncertainty about unintended consequences, expectations of efficacy, and uncertainty about both the target’s and the international community’s response. Cyber operations offer considerable benefits for states to achieve strategic objectives both covertly and overtly. However, without a strategic framework to contain and possibly deter their use, make state and non-state behavior more predictable in the absence of reciprocal norms, and limit their impact, an environment where states face persistent attacks that nonetheless fall below the threshold of armed conflict presents a policy dilemma that reinforces collective insecurity.     

The Russian hybrid warfare strategy – neither Russian nor strategy

Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its initial actions in eastern Ukraine in 2014, the term hybrid warfare has received much public attention. Many have argued that the Russian actions we saw in Ukraine were part of a completely new strategy while others have suggested that there was nothing new in Russia’s actions. This article takes a critical look at these claims. Through the assessment of the history of the term hybrid warfare and a rigorous analysis of the so-called Gerasimov doctrine, this study finds that the Russian hybrid warfare strategy is rather a western myth than a formal comprehensive Russian strategic concept. Additionally, through the assessment of the Russian use of information operations and the way she has utilised the cyberspace in several recent conflicts, the study finds that against all claims Russia did not make these areas its main battlefield, but rather has been using them in support of its traditional concepts.     

Some new results on the preservation of the NBUE and NWUE aging classes under the formation of coherent systems

We consider the classical problem of whether certain classes of lifetime distributions are preserved under the formation of coherent systems. Under the assumption of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) component lifetimes, we consider the NBUE (new better than used in expectation) and NWUE (new worse than used in expectation) classes. First, a necessary condition for a coherent system to preserve the NBUE class is given. Sufficient conditions are then obtained for systems satisfying this necessary condition. The sufficient conditions are satisfied for a collection of systems which includes all parallel systems, but the collection is shown to be strictly larger. We also prove that no coherent system preserves the NWUE class. As byproducts of our study, we obtain the following results for the case of i.i.d. component lifetimes: (a) the DFR (decreasing failure rate) class is preserved by no coherent systems other than series systems, and (b) the IMRL (increasing mean residual life) class is not preserved by any coherent systems. Generalizations to the case of dependent component lifetimes are briefly discussed.