From Westphalian Failure to Heterarchic Governance in MENA: The Case of Syria

Abstract

The problematic export of the Westphalian system to MENA is examined, taking Syria as exemplar. The export model is juxtaposed to actual non-lineal trajectories, semi-sovereignty and hybrid or failing states. This is manifested in post-uprising Syria in failing statehood, fragmented and overlapping governance, permeable and collapsing borders, the loss of sovereignty to trans-state movements, “competitive regime-building” between the Asad regime and jihadist warlords, and “competitive interventionism” by external powers filling the governance vacuum with their own proxies. The result is heterarchic zones of limited statehood in which state sovereignty is contested by both international (supra-state) penetration and sub-state fragmentation.     

Violence in context: Mapping the strategies and operational art of irregular warfare

The malaise that the United States, and the West, have experienced in recent campaigns stems in large part from unclear thinking about war, its political essence, and the strategies needed to join the two. Instead, analysis and response are predicated on entrenched theoretical concepts with limited practical utility. The inadequacy of understanding has spawned new, and not so new, terms to capture unanticipated trends, starting with the re-discovery of “insurgency” and “counterinsurgency” and leading to discussion of “hybrid threats” and “gray-zone” operations. New terminology can help, but the change must go deeper. Challenging analytical orthodoxy, this article sets out a unifying approach for the study of political violence, or more accurately: violent politics. It provides a conceptual foundation that helps to make sense of recent shifts in warfare. In effect, it offers sorely needed theoretical insights into the nature of strategy and guides the process of responding to nontraditional threats.     

The subversion of the Bulgarian defence system – the Russian way

Russia has long been pursuing an intended and calculated policy of keeping enough influence in Bulgaria in order to have control over national decisions. Together with the economic, energy, political and information tools used by Russia in its hybrid war against Bulgaria and in its bid to achieve an enduring “state capture,” defence is also a distinct target of Russian subversion now. A list of noticeable subversive actions with tangible effects can be summarised, ranging from fuelling division and manipulating public opinion, preventing the strengthening of the NATO position in the Black Sea, sabotaging defence reform to various options of subverting the modernisation of the Bulgarian Armed Forces and seeking new ways to keep legacy Soviet military equipment in operation as long as possible. This issue must be urgently addressed both nationally and in NATO.     

一种新型的不精确推理——SCESS不精确推理

本文是以模糊数学理论为基础,并考虑了人的心理因素,构造出一种新型的不精确推理。它已在一个实用的专家系统——突发性案件专家支持系统(SCESS)中得到实现。该推理能处理用单个数值、模糊区间和自然语言描述的不精确知识的可信度,并通过用户的态度得出相应的结论。     

定性过程推理的物资保障能力定性模型的建立

面对物资保障仿真领域中解决复杂、不确定问题存在困难,提出运用定性仿真的新思路研究,由定性过程理论和定性推理相结合提出定性过程推理的概念,分析了影响物资保障能力的因素,应用定性过程推理的方法抽象出物资保障能力定性模型,用符号定向图形象地表示该模型.并假设初始条件进行了推理论证,对推理结果的准确性和改进方式进行了分析,对下一步工作做了展望.     

一种神经网络-模糊推理的目标航迹融合方法

在概要介绍NN-FR融合结构的基础上,提出了一种NN-FR多目标航迹融合处理方法,并进行了仿真试验.     

基于规则控制的快速高度跟踪算法

提出一种全新的基于模糊推理与规则控制的高度跟踪算法。这种算法无论是在跟踪效果与运算速度上都大大优于以往的最速下降法、动态规划法、最优控制法等,而且可以对最大俯仰角、最大可用过载、希望跟踪程度等跟踪参数进行随意设定。大量的仿真计算证明,该算法具有很好的实时性、收敛性及可扩展性。可以极大地减轻对地攻击低空轨迹规划的工作,对巡航导弹、无人机更具应用价值     

S模糊集与故障树复合分析

运用模糊集评价和概率估计提出一种故障树复合分析方法来评价非常事件,使传统的故障树分析中,类似人为错误的模糊、不精确事件得到有效地处理。     

Hilbert空间中Lipschitz伪压缩映像不动点的杂交投影算法

在H ilbert空间中,采用杂交投影的方法设计了一种Lipschitz伪压缩映像不动点新的迭代格式,并利用H ilbert空间中特有的性质,证明了由此算法产生的序列强收敛于Lipschitz伪压缩映像不动点。     

移动代理的分布式系统监控模型研究与实现

提出将一种移动Agent与专家系统技术相结合的分布式网络故障诊断系统模型,该模型能够提高故障诊断效率,缩短系统响应时间,降低诊断时网络流量.提高诊断的智能性与容错性,克服了传统集中式故障诊断的诸多缺点.