The impact of arms production on the South African manufacturing industry

The 1977 UN arms embargo was one of the main factors which led South Africa to establish a largely self sufficient import‐substituting arms industry capable of meeting the apartheid state's demand for sophisticated weaponry. While macroeconomic studies suggest that high military spending had a damaging effect on economic growth, no studies have investigated the disaggregated impact of military expenditure on industrial development. This paper applies panel data methods to the Industrial Development Corporation's Sectoral Database in order to analyse the level effects of military spending.     

HARNESSING GLOBAL TRADE DATA FOR BIOLOGICAL ARMS CONTROL

Unlike treaties dealing with nuclear and chemical weapons, the Biological Weapons Convention still lacks formal verification measures, 31 years after entering into force. Here we propose a global export-import monitoring system of biological dual-use items as an additional measure for a web of biological arms controls that could complement traditional export controls. We suggest that such a measure may help to guide consultation or verification processes in the biological area.     

Defense Burden and the Effect of Democracy: Evidence from a Spatial Panel Analysis

ABSTRACT

Do democracies spend less on national defense? This paper provides new evidence of the effect of democracy on defense burden based on a Spatial Durbin Model with panel data for 98 countries for the years 1992–2008. While democracy measured by means of an index variable covering the entire range from perfect democracy to perfect autocracy turns out to be insignificant, dummy variables indicating transition to higher levels of democracy reveal a statistically highly significant negative effect of democracy on a country’s defense burden. Allowing for country-specific effects reveals heterogeneity in the effect of democracy across countries. Apart from the effect of democracy, the estimation results indicate strong spatial dependence of military burdens across countries. Moreover, they provide statistical evidence for a peace dividend, for substitution effects in defense spending and for a negative effect on the military burden for countries when they exhibit a trade surplus instead of a trade deficit.     

Emotions,Risk Perceptions and Precautionary Actions of Citizens During a Military Operation Using a New Defence Technology: The Israeli Case of the Iron Dome

Abstract

The current field study used unique data collected in Israel in July 2014, during a military operation that the Israel Defence Forces (I.D.F.) conducted in the Gaza Strip, in reaction to the thousands of missiles launched from there into Israel. During this operation, the new Iron Dome anti-missile defence system was used to protect Israelis exposed to missile attacks. The study examined factors that correlate with decisions to comply with I.D.F. defence instructions regarding behaviour during missile attacks. In addition, the study examined the relationship between attitudes towards the Iron Dome technology and emotions, risk perceptions, and the decision to comply with I.D.F. defence instructions. The results indicate that stronger positive opinions towards Iron Dome were correlated with lower levels of fear and anger, and beliefs that participant’s chances of being injured by a missile were lower than they had been during previous military operation. In addition, better compliance with I.D.F. defence instructions correlated with being more fearful, angrier at Hamas, living closer to Gaza Strip, and having more positive opinions about Iron Dome. The findings also indicate gender differences with respect to factors correlated with risk perceptions, opinions regarding Iron Dome, and precautionary actions during attacks.     

Book review

This paper investigates the economic roots of separatist terrorism in Turkey. The political conventional wisdom is that poverty in highly Kurdish‐populated, south‐eastern Turkey is one of the most important causes of separatist terrorism and Turkish–Kurdish conflict in Turkey. Therefore, many economic policies have been implemented to improve the economic conditions in the south‐eastern part of the country. Using the Global Terrorism Database and Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology, I find that there is no causal relationship between economic conditions in south‐eastern Turkey and separatist terrorism. Therefore policy‐makers should be cautious in using economic measures to prevent separatist terrorism in Turkey.     

近地卫星Ka频段数传链路抗雨衰ACM模式设计

针对近地卫星数传时的信道时变性和严重的Ka频段雨衰现象,采用自适应编码调制（ACM）技术能够充分利用链路资源,相对于传统的固定编码调制方式,进一步提高了链路的数据吞吐量。提出了近地卫星Ka频段数传链路ACM模式设计方法,在降雨环境下建立Ka频段数传链路模型,根据信道状况确定ACM选用模式;采用基于导频符号的最大似然信噪比估计算法结合移动平均的平滑方法实现信道估计,有效地减小了估计值的波动。仿真结果表明,无论晴天还是雨天,采用提出的卫星数传链路ACM模式设计方法,能够在保证系统可靠性的同时获取较高的数据吞吐量。     

【专题】装备大数据安全保护研究

本文通过梳理大数据技术发展及数据资源建设现状,可视化呈现了数据资源建设使用中出现的数据泄露现状及趋势,剖析了数据泄露的根本原因。在分析军队装备大数据建设及规划情况的基础上,建立了装备大数据安全问题分析方法,即在数据采集阶段、数据传输阶段、数据存储阶段和数据使用阶段,分别构建装备大数据不同维度安全要素,包括安全威胁、安全主体和安全保障,并应用于分析装备大数据安全问题。此外,本研究还深入分析了装备大数据建设应用过程中四个阶段存在的安全风险,构建了装备大数据全周期、立体化、协同化的安全防护体系,研究了装备大数据安全保护技术框架,包括以大数据访问控制技术、安全检索技术和安全计算技术为支撑的大数据安全技术和以匿名隐私保护技术和差分隐私保护技术为支撑的大数据保护技术。希翼研究结果能够为装备大数据全寿命周期内的安全防护提供一定借鉴。     

基于以太坊的装备全寿命数据管理平台设计

武器装备具有技术密集、高投入、高风险和周期长等特点,是衡量一支军队战斗力的关键性指标。本文针对武器装备全寿命数据跟踪问题,分析研究其中各个关键环节的数据管理需求及其所面临的挑战,首次提出了一种武器装备数据管理领域去中心化且不可篡改的控制平台方案,详细设计了基于区块链的武器装备全寿命数据管理平台的系统模型、交互模型及数据属性等,并以以太坊系统为底层架构,通过部署智能合约,实现对武器装备全寿命周期的可控访问、全程审计与状态跟踪。试验结果表明,该平台运行良好,前端页面简洁友好,计算开销及时间开销较低,适用于实际作业环境下的装备数据管理,具有良好的应用前景。     

基于模糊灰色理论的数据链系统作战效能评估

数据链系统作战效能的评估研究,对信息系统的战斗力形成和提高有着重要意义。基于灰色理论和模糊数学提出了一种新的数据链系统作战效能评估模型,这种模型融合了层次分析法、灰色聚类分析、模糊综合评价,避免了使用单一模糊数学方法的不合理之处,为全面评估数据链系统作战效能提供了全新的方法。     

基于模糊聚类的入侵检测方法

分析了异常入侵检测存在的问题,研究了基于模糊聚类的入侵检测算法。该算法采用C-均值算法,通过训练数据聚类、异常聚类划分和行为判定等3个步骤实现异常入侵检测。试验采用KDD99数据进行了测试,证明该算法是可行和有效的。