专家系统和多目标决策理论在抗沉决策系统中的应用

应用专家系统理论建立了抗沉规则库,确定了方案产生逻辑,同时运用多目标决策理论中的简单加性加权法建立了数学模型,对多方案抗沉效果进行了综合评估．成功地解决了舰艇生命力指标间的相互制约、相互影响的问题,为抗沉优化决策提供了新的思路和方法．     

利用复单脉冲比的平面阵列雷达群目标检测方法

针对平面阵列雷达群目标检测问题,以矩形阵为例,详细分析方位向和俯仰向复单脉冲比虚部的统计特性;建立平面阵列雷达群目标检测模型,根据恒虚警检测原理推导复单脉冲比虚部的椭圆判决域,并利用复单脉冲比实部辅助判决,综合提出基于复单脉冲比的平面阵列雷达群目标检测算法。针对双目标情形进行仿真实验,结果表明:在较高信噪比、较大角度间隔以及幅度相当且相位差较大的条件下算法能够有效检测群目标。     

Impacts of sequential acquisition,market competition mode,and confidentiality on information flow

We investigate information flow in a setting in which 2 retailers order from a supplier and sell to a market with uncertain demand. Each retailer has access to a signal. The retailers can disclose signals to each other (horizontal information sharing), while the supplier can solicit signals by offering retailers differential payments as incentives for signal disclosure (vertical information acquisition). In the base setting, market competition is in quantity, and a retailer can fully infer the signal that the other retailer discloses to the supplier. We show that the supplier prefers to sequentialize the procedure for information acquisition. Moreover, vertical information acquisition by the supplier is a strategic complement to horizontal information sharing between the retailers to establish information flow. In the equilibrium, the retailers have no incentive to exchange signals, but system wide information transparency can be realized through a combination of information acquisition and inference. We further study the signaling effect, whereby the supplier utilizes wholesale pricing as an instrument to affect the retailers' inference of the shared signals, and price competition to explore their impacts on the supplier's preference for sequential acquisition and the sustainability of information flow.     

Meaning of working and expectations: a research on professional soldier candidates in Turkey

Previous studies on the relationship between individual’s enlistment decisions and their personal characteristics examined a number of variables such as age, marital status, gender, family background, geographical background, employment situation and education level. However, attitudes towards working, expectations from a good job and centrality of working are also important determinants in this process. This paper examines the profile of juveniles who seek a career as gendarmerie non-commissioned officers (NCO) in the Turkish Armed Forces and their attitudes and expectations towards working in general within the framework of Meaning of Working (MOW) researches. According to the results of the survey conducted with 500 NCO candidates in Turkey, learning something new, good relations with colleagues and employment guarantee are detected as the main expectations of juveniles who seek a career in military. Results also show that having a job is so important for these young people that they consider having a job even prior to their families.     

基于效用分析的武器装备发展方案决策

武器装备发展方案效用决策分析的目的就是以一定的方法和途径,根据决策者对武器装备发展所涉及的各项决策准则的偏好及其对各决策备选方案可能出现风险程度的态度,诱导出决策者对于各项准则的效用函数,从而以诱导的形式综合出各决策备选方案的综合效用,以获得决策者认为是最满意的决策方案.     

防空旅指挥自动化系统Petri网决策组织结构

结合实战,在给出基本决策单元结构模型的基础上,依据战术原则建立了防空旅决策组织结构的Petri网表示模型,在决策单元的结构模型中信息处理分为四级:态势评估级(SA)、信息融合级(IF)、资源分配级(RA)、响应选择级(RS).就决策中同级决策组织结构分三种形式(集中式、分布式和混合式)进行了建模,并对三种形式进行了利弊分析,为防空旅C4ISR系统中决策组织结构的设计和分析提供了依据.     

灰色关联投影法的威胁排序算法

威胁评估与排序是作战系统和C4I系统必须具备的重要功能.结合多指标决策理论和灰色系统理论,提出了基于多指标决策灰色关联投影法的威胁排序算法.首先通过建立灰色关联判断矩阵将威胁排序转化为多指标决策问题;其次为缩小极端值的影响提出了基于信息熵的威胁指标权重算法;最后从矢量投影角度应用灰色关联投影值进行威胁排序;并分别研究了分辨系数和指标权重对威胁排序的影响.通过现代防空作战实例验证了算法的有效性和工程实用性.     

地空导弹营战斗保障模糊评判模型

运用模糊数学的方法,结合地空导弹营的具体实际,给出了地空导弹营战斗保障能力的评价因素指标,建立了营战斗力的二级模型评判模型,并利用改进集值统计法确定了各因素的权重,给出了地空导弹营战斗保障能力的量化评判方法。     

模糊群体决策的多方案评价方法

针对多方案评估中因素评价难于精确表示的问题,提出了一种基于模糊语言变量和OWA(OrderedWeightedAveraging)集结算子的群体评价模型与方法,给出各因素的方案两两对比偏好语言评价值,并通过对多决策者、子因素、主因素的三次集结和对模型中α值的恰当选取,可得到方案集的优序排列。该方法可行、有效,可为群体决策提供新的途径。     

基于未确知测度的多目标决策方法及其应用

定义策略、目标和评判三个空间以及满足非负性、归一性和可加性的未确知测度函数,给出了适合于有序分割类评判空间寻优的最优决策准则,从而提出了一种未确知信息数学处理理论基础上的未确知测度决策方法,对含多因素特别是难以量化因素的决策问题寻优建立了一个合理、精细、分辨率高、计算简单高效的数学模型,用来求解多目标决策问题中的最优策略,并结合火力打击选择的一个实例分析,获得了较为成功的应用.