The Naval Intelligence Underpinnings of Reagan's Maritime Strategy

Washington's so-called Maritime Strategy, which sought to apply US naval might against Soviet vulnerabilities on its maritime flanks, came to full fruition during the 1980s. The strategy, which witnessed a major buildup of US naval forces and aggressive exercising in seas proximate to the USSR, also explicitly targeted Moscow”s strategic missile submarines with the aim of pressuring the Kremlin during crises or the early phases of global war. Relying on a variety of interviews and newly declassified documents, the authors assert that the Maritime Strategy represents one of the rare instances in history when intelligence helped lead a nation to completely revise its concept of military operations.     

Shielding the ‘Hot Gates’: Submarine Warfare and Japanese Naval Strategy in the Cold War and Beyond (1976–2006)

The build-up of Japan's military apparatus in the 1990s and 2000s has been often regarded by security analysts as indicative of a departure from the country's Cold War strategic posture. Japan appears to be engaged in a process of militarisation that is eroding the foundations of its ‘exclusively defence-oriented’ policy. In the case of the archipelago's naval strategy, such assessments overlook the longstanding significance of a core feature of its defence policy, namely the surveillance of maritime crossroads delivering the wealth of the country. The paper reassesses the evolution of the Japanese strategy since the Cold War by examining the development of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force's submarine force, one of the key components of the defensive shield for these crossroads. The paper argues that with the changes in the security environment of the 1990s, Japan already fielded a mature force with state-of-the-art submarines, and that the rise of a new naval competitor aiming at controlling key strategic points along Japan's sea lanes reconfirmed the critical importance of submarine operations to Japanese national security.     

Monitoring poisson count data with probability control limits when sample sizes are time varying

This article considers the problem of monitoring Poisson count data when sample sizes are time varying without assuming a priori knowledge of sample sizes. Traditional control charts, whose control limits are often determined before the control charts are activated, are constructed based on perfect knowledge of sample sizes. In practice, however, future sample sizes are often unknown. Making an inappropriate assumption of the distribution function could lead to unexpected performance of the control charts, for example, excessive false alarms in the early runs of the control charts, which would in turn hurt an operator's confidence in valid alarms. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of probability control limits, which are determined based on the realization of sample sizes online. The conditional probability that the charting statistic exceeds the control limit at present given that there has not been a single alarm before can be guaranteed to meet a specified false alarm rate. Simulation studies show that our proposed control chart is able to deliver satisfactory run length performance for any time‐varying sample sizes. The idea presented in this article can be applied to any effective control charts such as the exponentially weighted moving average or cumulative sum chart. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 625–636, 2013     

Operation ‘enduring freedom’: a victory for a conventional force fighting an unconventional war

The track record of the US military in unconventional wars has not been good and there were fears that Operation ‘Enduring Freedom’ might suffer the same fate as previous campaigns. This contribution explores why the Taliban were defeated so easily by the US in 2001. It challenges the view that America's victory was due solely to changes in its modus operandi or that the outcome heralds a change in the fortunes of the US when fighting unconventional war. It also questions the idea that America's victory was a consequence of Taliban incompetence. Instead, it explains the defeat of the Taliban in terms of the prevailing political conditions within Afghanistan, which made them vulnerable to attack. The essay concludes that current political circumstances could, in the long run, permit the resurrection of the Taliban and undermine the US-led coalition's victory.     

卫星双向与单向载波联合的北斗星载钟短稳评估方法

卫星导航系统评估星载钟稳定度通常需要大型地面监测网的观测数据和复杂的钟差确定算法,不能基于单站观测数据实现。论文在分析利用单站观测数据评估星载钟短稳方法的基础上,提出了一种相对容易实现的联合卫星双向载波测距值与GNSS单向载波观测值的星载钟短稳评估方法。该方法通过卫星双向载波测距确定星地几何距离,基于消除星地几何距离的GNSS接收机载波相位观测值估算卫星相对钟差,进而实现其短稳评估。利用北斗系统观测数据进行了有效性验证,并与复杂钟差确定算法以及利用平滑广播星历的方法(SBE法)进行了对比,本文方法与复杂钟差确定算法计算的结果相符,在1000s平滑间隔内与SBE法结果一致,相对误差小于10%,1000s以上好于SBE法。     

信息推荐系统中的朋友关系预测算法设计

伴随着互联网规模的不断扩展,信息过载问题越来越突出。信息推荐系统被视为解决信息过载问题的最有效方法。然而目前的方法大多数仅考虑用户独立的反馈,而忽略用户的社会属性对推荐的重要作用,这对信息推荐系统的性能会造成巨大的影响。为此,本文提出了基于朋友关系预测的信息推荐算法,将用户的社会关系预测引入信息推荐过程中,分别基于用户的拓扑信息及历史交互信息建立用户社会关系的存在性判定及关系类型判定,并利用线性回归分析方法和逻辑回归分析方法实现了基本特征的融合。最后,通过在Epinions和Slashdot真实数据集上的实验证明,本方法能够有效提高用户社会关系预测的准确性。     

PHEV电池电荷状态估计设计及仿真

电池管理系统(battery management system,BMS)是混合动力汽车(parallel hybrid electric vehicle,PHEV)能量管理系统中的核心组成部分,而其中电池电荷状态(state of charge,soc)则是PHEV控制策略中的重要参数.针对PHEV动力电池组SOC系统高度非线性和复杂性的特点,提出了一种基于改进的BP神经网络的HEV动力电池组的实时SOC估计,并对网络的收敛性进行了证明.利用大量PHEV动力电池组在行驶过程中充放电的数据样本,对神经网络进行网络训练并且进行仿真.结果表明,与传统离线SOC估计方法相比,能够有效地减小误差,提高电池SOC的精度.     

面向架次率的机场资源配置优化模型

架次出动率是评价军用飞机作战能力的一项重要指标.面向架次率这一重要指标,基于排队理论和边际分析法建立了机场资源配置优化模型.首先建立架次生成过程的闭排队网络模型,使用平均值分析方法获得给定资源配置下,任意架飞机参与飞行时的架次出动率;然后结合平均值分析算法和边际分析方法,综合考虑资源的价值和对架次率的影响,建立面向架次率的资源配置优化模型.此模型可为机场资源配置提供决策方案,并通过一个实例介绍了本模型的应用.     

飞行操作任务的无人机模拟训练及系统设计

为了提高无人机模拟训练的逼真度和沉浸感.研究了无人机飞行操作训练的关键技术,以半实装的形式构建了模拟飞行训练系统的体系结构.通过对飞行操作训练关键技术的研究和飞行操作模拟训练系统的设计,可以对基层部队的无人机地面操控手高逼真模拟训练提供理论基础和系统支持.     

熵权灰色关联分析法的坦克夜间射击目标选择

针对夜间战场上坦克目标威胁评估问题,结合多目标决策问题,将熵权和灰色关联分析法相结合,提出一种基于熵权灰色关联分析的坦克夜间射击目标选择模型,并详细给出了该算法的思想、算法.该方法克服了传统评估算法中主观赋值的缺陷,最后利用实例证明了该方法的有效性.