装备保障能力评估指标选择方法研究

针对当前装备保障能力评估指标选择方法存在主观性较大、评估精度低、评估结果一致性差等问题,提出了3种装备保障能力评估指标确定方法。依据面向能力的思路,通过对能力、性能与特性关系的分析提出了指标确定方法;基于本体论与文本挖掘技术,对装备保障能力相关文本的特征进行表示和提取,最后定义合适的文本挖掘泛化规则提炼出评估指标和权重;利用FP-Growth关联规则和模糊贝叶斯网络建立混合模型获取评估指标及权重,最后通过案例验证各方法的客观性、有效性和一致性。     

自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)及其仿真

自适应神经网络模糊推理系统ANF IS是模糊控制与神经网络控制结合的产物。讨论了ANF IS的结构及其特点,并利用M ATLAB的专用工具箱进行了仿真研究,取得满意的效果。     

Mixed rules in multi‐issue allocation situations

Multi‐issue allocation situations study problems where an estate must be divided among a group of agents. The claim of each agent is a vector specifying the amount claimed by each agent on each issue. We present a two‐stage rule. First, we divide the estate among the issues following the constrained equal awards rule. Second, the amount assigned to each issue is divided among the agents in proportion to their demands on this issue. We apply the rule to two real‐world problems: the distribution of natural resources between countries and the distribution of budget for education and research between universities.     

Impacts of sequential acquisition,market competition mode,and confidentiality on information flow

We investigate information flow in a setting in which 2 retailers order from a supplier and sell to a market with uncertain demand. Each retailer has access to a signal. The retailers can disclose signals to each other (horizontal information sharing), while the supplier can solicit signals by offering retailers differential payments as incentives for signal disclosure (vertical information acquisition). In the base setting, market competition is in quantity, and a retailer can fully infer the signal that the other retailer discloses to the supplier. We show that the supplier prefers to sequentialize the procedure for information acquisition. Moreover, vertical information acquisition by the supplier is a strategic complement to horizontal information sharing between the retailers to establish information flow. In the equilibrium, the retailers have no incentive to exchange signals, but system wide information transparency can be realized through a combination of information acquisition and inference. We further study the signaling effect, whereby the supplier utilizes wholesale pricing as an instrument to affect the retailers' inference of the shared signals, and price competition to explore their impacts on the supplier's preference for sequential acquisition and the sustainability of information flow.     

构建军民融合法治保障体系的几点理论思考

法治是推动军民融合发展的重要基石,不管从整合主体力量、优化资源配置,还是保障各系统有效运行等方面都发挥着不可替代的作用。针对当前军民融合法治保障体系存在的法规制度"碎片化"、滞后性,以及适用性不强等矛盾问题,军民融合法治保障体系的构建必须把握好坚持党的领导与维护法治的权威性,坚持改革创新与维护法治的稳定性,坚持分工协作与维护法治的系统性,坚持开放共融与维护法治的独特性等基本原则。     

A misclassification cost‐minimizing evolutionary–neural classification approach

Machine learning algorithms that incorporate misclassification costs have recently received considerable attention. In this paper, we use the principles of evolution to develop and test an evolutionary/genetic algorithm (GA)‐based neural approach that incorporates asymmetric Type I and Type II error costs. Using simulated, real‐world medical and financial data sets, we compare the results of the proposed approach with other statistical, mathematical, and machine learning approaches, which include statistical linear discriminant analysis, back‐propagation artificial neural network, integrated cost preference‐based linear mathematical programming‐based minimize squared deviations, linear integrated cost preference‐based GA, decision trees (C 5.0, and CART), and inexpensive classification with expensive tests algorithm. Our results indicate that the proposed approach incorporating asymmetric error costs results in equal or lower holdout sample misclassification cost when compared with the other statistical, mathematical, and machine learning misclassification cost‐minimizing approaches. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006.     

常用航迹初始化技术分析

评价了四种常用的航迹初始方法的性能,这四种方法是:基于规则的方法,基于逻辑的方法,霍夫法和改进的霍夫变换法。详细描述了这四种方法,针对距离方位系统,通过蒙特卡洛模拟比较了在杂波环境下各种算法对于捕获新航迹和产生虚假航迹的概率,特别是多目标的情况下。     

双官能团有机化合物命名规则探讨

系统总结了在教材中双官能团有机化合物的命名规则,对教材内容提出了适当的补充,综合了各类双官能团有机物的命名特点,得出适用于双官能团有机物的命名规则,丰富了教材内容。     

基于Agent和ECA规则构建的工作流系统

针对当前工作流系统存在的问题,提出了一种能够支持流程动态修改、基于活动和ECA规则组合的工作流模型,并在工作流系统中加入管理流程运行的Agent部件,实现了系统对流程运行的智能化管理.最后采用一种回退策略来处理流程发生变化时正在运行的流程,保证这些流程按照修改后的流程正常执行.     

Progressive Type‐II censoring and coherent systems

A new connection between the distribution of component failure times of a coherent system and (adaptive) progressively Type‐II censored order statistics is established. Utilizing this property, we develop inferential procedures when the data is given by all component failures until system failure in two scenarios: In the case of complete information, we assume that the failed component is also observed whereas in the case of incomplete information, we have only information about the failure times but not about the components which have failed. In the first setting, we show that inferential methods for adaptive progressively Type‐II censored data can directly be applied to the problem. For incomplete information, we face the problem that the corresponding censoring plan is not observed and that the available inferential procedures depend on the knowledge of the used censoring plan. To get estimates for distributional parameters, we propose maximum likelihood estimators which can be obtained by solving the likelihood equations directly or via an Expectation‐Maximization‐algorithm type procedure. For an exponential distribution, we discuss also a linear estimator to estimate the mean. Moreover, we establish exact distributions for some estimators in the exponential case which can be used, for example, to construct exact confidence intervals. The results are illustrated by a five component bridge system. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 512–530, 2015