THE ‘PRICE’ OF TERRORISM

Security measures are said to increase the price of terrorism. This price has not been hitherto defined in an economically meaningful way. This paper provides a precise definition by treating the terrorists’ resource endowment as a parcel of contingent claims to political influence with a price equal to the summed value of those contingent claims in potential states of the world. Equipped with this definition, an equilibrium model of the price of terrorism is deployed. Important insights are gained into the effect of terrorists’ risk aversion at the level of the price of terrorism in different states of the world and the theoretical conclusion is reached that higher security is associated with a lower price of terrorism rather than a higher price. The implications for policy are discussed.     

Influence without power? Reframing British concepts of military intervention after 10 years of counterinsurgency

British attitudes towards military intervention following the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan have undergone what appears to be considerable change. Parliament has voted against the use of Britain's armed forces in Syria and the public are unenthused by overseas engagement. Conscious of the costs and the challenges posed by the use of British military power the government has been busy revamping the way it approaches crises overseas. The result is a set of policies that apparently heralds a new direction in foreign policy. This new direction is encapsulated in the Building Stability Overseas Strategy (BSOS) and the more recent International Defence Engagement Strategy (IDES). Both BSOS and IDES set out the basis for avoiding major deployments to overseas conflict and instead refocuses effort on defence diplomacy, working with and through overseas governments and partners, early warning, pre-conflict prevention and post-conflict reconstruction. Developing a number of themes that reach from across the Cold War to more contemporary discussions of British strategy, the goal of this special edition is to take into account a number of perspectives that place BSOS and IDES in their historical and strategic context. These papers suggest that using defence diplomacy is and will remain an extremely imprecise lever that needs to be carefully managed if it is to remain a democratically accountable tool of foreign policy.     

硼砂对磷酸镁水泥性能影响及微观作用机理分析

研究了硼砂对磷酸镁水泥凝结时间与抗压强度的影响,分析了硼砂对水泥性能影响的微观作用机制.研究发现:随着硼砂对MgO质量分数增加,磷酸镁水泥凝结时间延长,其早期抗压强度迅速降低,后期抗压强度所受影响相对较小;磷酸镁水泥应用于快速修补及抢修抢建时,硼砂质量为氧化镁质量的5％～10％为宜;硼砂对磷酸镁水泥水化产物的早期生成量...     

舰艇编队区域防空探索性建模与分析

舰艇编队的区域防空作战是一个复杂问题.具有体系特性的战略层规划一直是其中的重点和难点.探索性分析正是适宜解决这一难题的方法论,它可以通过高层次模型的定量探索,在深入细节之前对问题有个广度的了解.依照探索性分析的思想,从宏观层次描述舰艇编队区域防空问题;基于所设计的时间片影响图分析建模软件工具EASim,建立了该问题的高...     

韩国反导政策:调整、原因及影响

韩国自20世纪90年代起开始考虑反导系统的构建以来,其反导政策经历了"明确反对加入美国反导体系,自主构建韩国型导弹防御系统"到"强化韩美、韩美日反导合作,谋求实质上融入美国反导体系"的显著调整与变化。韩国反导政策的演变与朝鲜核、导威胁的与日俱增、韩国自身反导能力的不足及美国的极力推动等因素密不可分。当前,韩国开始部署"萨德"末段高空区域反导系统,韩美反导合作日益深入,并向韩美日三边合作拓展,且取得了实质性的进展。韩国强化与美、日的反导联合,在军事、外交、安全方面引发了广泛影响。     

无人机路径规划算法与仿真

根据敌方防御雷达、防空火力等威胁以及禁飞区的分布情况,构造基于战场威胁中心的Voronoi图,得到可以规避各种威胁的航迹线段,结合战场威胁信息,计算航迹段的代价,形成有向图,计算出无人机初始最优航路,利用无人机初始状态和性能约束进行航路的进一步修正,满足了无人机的飞行特点.并运用MATLAB编制图形化界面,实现仿真结果的图形显示.