INTRODUCTION: THE DYNAMICS OF NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

Decisionmaking processes leading to the acquisition of nuclear weapons by democratic states have served as the basis for theories about nuclear proliferation. In contrast, less is known about how a totalitarian regime responds to immense external pressure to abolish unconventional weapons it considers crucial for its security and survival. This article will analyze how we can explain Iraq's behavior after the passing of Resolution 1441 and during the United Nations inspections in 2002–2003.     

PREVENTIVE ATTACKS AGAINST NUCLEAR PROGRAMS AND THE “SUCCESS” AT OSIRAQ

Advocates of the preventive use of force against emerging nuclear, biological, or chemical programs often look to the allegedly successful 1981 Israeli airstrike against Iraqi nuclear facilities at Osiraq. According to the conventional wisdom, this attack may have prevented Iraq from going nuclear before Operation Desert Storm in 1991. This article assesses the claim that the 1981 attack substantially delayed Iraqi acquisition of nuclear weapons, both by revisiting older debates and by introducing new evidence from Iraqi scientists. The article casts doubt on the conclusion that the attack was successful for three reasons: (1) the reactor itself was not well equipped to generate plutonium for a nuclear weapon; (2) illegal plutonium production would likely have caused a cutoff in the supply of nuclear fuel and an end to weapons activities; and (3) the attack may have actually increased Saddam's commitment to acquiring weapons. These conclusions have implications for the Bush Doctrine, as the lack of success in 1981 casts doubt on the possible success of future attacks against nuclear programs.     

基于多传感器信息系统的仿人机器人步态规划算法改进研究

摘要：基于视觉传感器、角度传感器和力／力矩传感器组成的多传感器信息系统,对仿人机器人理想的步态规划算法进行了改进．以双目视觉立体标定原理处理视觉传感信息,从而判断目标距离及目标路径的可达性;通过角度传感器获取实时旋转角度,经参数调整减小执行误差;根据力／;5矩传感信息对支撑脚踝关节的侧摆角度进行增量式补偿．经实验验证,改进后的算法对机器人的步态稳定性控制具有良好的效果．     

面向信息整合的军用数据中心研究

针对未来多样化军事任务对数据服务需求,在充分研究军用数据异构、分散存储、服务方式多样等现状的基础上,分析了数据应用的能力需求,提出了面向信息整合的军用数据中心技术架构与组成,阐述了该架构的特点以及关键技术,很好地解决了现有数据服务存在的问题,为未来军用数据工程建设奠定基础。     

Should competing firms reveal their capacity?

In this article, we explore when firms have an incentive to hide (or reveal) their capacity information. We consider two firms that aim to maximize profits over time and face limited capacity. One or both of the firms have private information on their own capacity levels, and they update their beliefs about their rival's capacity based on their observation of the other firm's output. We focus on credible revelation mechanisms—a firm may signal its capacity through overproduction, compared to its myopic production levels. We characterize conditions when high‐capacity firms may have the incentive and capability to signal their capacity levels by overproduction. We show that prior beliefs about capacity play a crucial, and surprisingly complex, role on whether the firm would prefer to reveal its capacity or not. A surprising result is that, despite the fact that it may be best for the high‐capacity firm to overproduce to reveal its capacity when capacity information is private, it may end up with more profits than if all capacity information were public knowledge in the first place. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

公安警卫信息化建设刍议

警卫部队信息化建设为警卫部队在新时期更好地完成党和人民赋予的各项警卫任务提供了更加便捷和有效的服务与保障。分析警卫信息化建设的必要性和重要性,探讨警卫信息化建设中需要建立健全的几个应用性系统。     

Stranglehold: The Context,Conduct and Consequences of an American Naval Blockade of China

The mounting challenge posed by China's military modernization has highlighted the need for the United States to analyze its ability to execute a naval blockade. A blockade strategy is viable, but it would be limited to a narrow context: the United States would have to be engaged in a protracted conflict over vital interests, and it would need the support of key regional powers. The United States would also need to implement a mix between a close and distant blockade in order to avoid imperiling the conflict's strategic context. If enacted, a blockade could exact a ruinous cost on the Chinese economy and state.     

人工神经网络在管理信息系统中的应用

在传统管理信息系统的基础上,增加专家系统模块,即基于人工神经网络技术的预测分析模块,完成复杂的非线性预测以提高MIS智能化、自动化水平。该模块选用反向传输(BP:BackPropagation)神经网络模型来实现,通过网络的自适应学习和训练,找出输入和输出之间的内在联系,从而求得问题的解答。利用该专家系统对出版社图书市场销量进行预测。结果表明:该方法性能好,可作为预测图书售量的一种有效手段。     

网络中心战及其对装备精确保障的几点启示

介绍了网络中心战的产生背景及发展历史,研究归纳了网络中心战的概念及内涵,分析了网络中心战原理,探讨了网络中心战对实现装备精确保障的一些启示,提出了我军在实现装备精确保障过程中借鉴网络中心战理论的构想及应注意的问题.     

两栖攻击舰作战系统

未来的两栖战舰将进一步强化立体两栖突击能力,将普遍设置直升机机库和飞行平台,并将携带气垫登陆艇,甚至地效翼飞行器、偏转翼飞机等立体两栖突击装备;另一方面强化自身的防御武器,除了常规的中小口径舰炮外,普遍都装备导弹发射装置;此外,舰上都设有由通信系统和计算机组成的、能处理多批目标、反应快、自动化程度高的两栖指挥控制系统。本文介绍美两栖攻击舰（LHA）和两栖船坞运输舰（LPD）的作战系统及其设备。