指挥信息系统的风险分析及其方法

基于指挥信息系统的风险管理,贯穿于作战指挥活动的全过程。从指挥信息系统的结构和组织体制的实际出发,围绕指挥信息系统的风险因素,进行风险辨识,给出了基于信息熵理论的信息系统风险评估方法,以指挥活动中的组织计划过程的风险评估为例建模,为在不确定条件下,科学评估指挥信息系统风险提供了定性分析与定量分析方法。     

基于不完全信息空战的火力分配建模与应用

为了解决不完全信息空战中的火力分配问题,分析了常规空战火力分配模型,指出了其中的不足,建立了一种改进的火力分配模型。针对不完全信息空战特点,给出了其中关键参数的确定方法。该改进模型可有效利用战机在不完全信息条件下容易获取的有限参数进行火力分配,具有很强的实用性。最后通过典型应用实例验证了模型的有效性。     

多媒体信息管理的NBO(结点-块-对象)模型

描述了在多媒体数据管理中基于超图的数据库状态的形式化模型,并利用面向对象的思想,提出了NBO(结点-块-对象)模型,给出了结点、块和对象的结构方式。以装备管理为例,说明了NBO模型的构造方法和系统驱动的流程。     

基于兰切斯特方程的网络中心战模型

为了更全面、客观地评价信息优势和决策优势对网络中心战进程的影响,在分析经典兰切斯特方程的基础上,引入信息?决策概率,提出了基于兰切斯特方程的网络中心战模型,仿真实验表明该模型能够有效地描述信息?决策概率在网络中心战进程中发挥的作用,为研究分析网络中心作战过程提供了理论参考。     

试论信息系统化对消防建设的促进

信息化是现代社会经济发展的主要技术力量,也是消防部队发展壮大的有效途径。消防部门要以信息化科技手段规范队伍管理,完善监督程序,提高执法服务水平和部队战斗力,推动消防工作和部队建设。对目前消防部队投入使用或在建的信息化项目进行了分析、总结和归类,提出了＂系统化＂的构想和框架。     

贝叶斯网络推理在信息系统安全风险评估中的应用

提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络推理的安全风险评估方法。从实际出发建立信息系统的贝叶斯网络模型,根据专家给出的先验信息,结合获得的证据信息,运用Pearl方法完成对模型的评估,给出在特定条件下模型的计算——线性推理算法。最后,以实例分析信息系统安全评估的实现过程,结果表明,该方法可行、有效。     

Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

The African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crisis: conceptual breakthrough or anti-imperialist phantom?

The creation of an African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crisis (ACIRC) is a sign of Africa's willingness to take its destiny into its own hands. Presented as a reaction to the slowness of the development of the African Standby Force (ASF), it is also a response to some of the ASF's conceptual weaknesses. This decision reflects a wish to establish an instrument better equipped to deal with the challenges Africa is facing. Departing from the (sub)regional logic of the ASF results from a desire to take into account the transnational nature of threats, while its enlarged mandate is meant to offer Africa the capacity to intervene in all kinds of conflicts, including by undertaking peace enforcement activities. But the obstacles on the road towards the actual creation and mobilisation of this capacity should not be underestimated. These include material difficulties, but also political tensions, between ‘small’ and ‘big’ states as well as between the African Union and subregional organisations. The risk then is high that the ACIRC, whose announcement came as a reaction to France's intervention in Mali, ends up joining the ranks of the many ‘anti-imperialist’ phantoms haunting the history of the Organization of African Unity/African Union (OAU/AU). Confronted by events considered ‘neocolonial’ initiatives, African actors have indeed traditionally reacted by launching grand projects that never got off the ground. However, by actually establishing this new instrument, they may also demonstrate that times have definitively changed.     

基于AHP的大学生信息素养能力评价指标体系构建研究

本文在深入分析国内外信息素养能力标准相关研究的基础上,确定了大学生信息素养能力标准,然后运用AHP法确定了大学生信息素养能力指标对应的权重,最终建立了一个适用于大学生信息素养能力的量化评价指标体系,使对大学生信息素养能力的评价真正得以实施。     

增强公安现役部队院校学员社会主义核心价值体系认同对策研究

社会主义核心价值体系决定着中国特色社会主义的发展方向,公安现役部队院校学员是公安现役部队的重要后备力量,经济转型期的阶层分化、多元文化和日益发展的网络文化对学员认同社会主义核心价值体系有不同程度的影响.应当在公安现役院校的思想政治教育中,把社会主义核心价值体系贯穿于两课教学的全过程,帮助学员在多元文化中提高辨别能力,探索运用网络进行思想政治教育的新途径、新机制.