基于非线性聚合的多类型指标综合评估方法

针对多类型指标综合评估问题,将实数型、区间数型和模糊数型指标相结合,构建评估指标体系.采用区间数特征向量法和信息熵权法确定指标权重,并针对3种不同类型的指标分别定义了评分方法.引入非线性聚合理论,建立了基于非线性聚合的多类型指标综合评估指标体系.最后,以某型军事指挥信息系统的指挥控制能力评估为例,进行了实例运算,验证了该模型与方法的合理性和有效性.     

基于信息损失最小的预警卫星传感器调度模型

科学合理地调度预警卫星传感器资源是提高弹道导弹预警作战效能的重要手段.在预警卫星传感器资源(主要是凝视探测器)有限而进攻弹道导弹目标数量较多时,利用最小信息损失准则,将传感器调度问题转化为最优访问路径问题进行建模研究,满足了导弹预警资源调度的需要,仿真结果验证了模型的可靠性和可用性.     

Dealing with the fast-changing environment in the eastern DRC

This paper is a study of the phenomenon of trans-border ethnic relations and its impact on national integration and citizenship in the countries of West and Central Africa where trans-border ethnic groups exist. Despite the existence of many such groups in these regions, and the numerous problems associated with the continued relations among these groups across their countries of abode, the phenomenon has not been seriously studied, especially as it concerns the identification of members of such groups and how they are viewed by members of other ethnic groups, as citizens of one country or the other. This paper notes that trans-border ethnic solidarity ordinarily presents the relevant African states with two possibilities, namely: enormous benefits accruing from regional integration and cooperation among states harbouring fractions of trans-border ethnic groups; or, debilitating conflicts within and between these states. It is the reality of the latter possibility that this paper examines. The states and the international system are often incapable of containing this phenomenon of trans-border ethnic solidarity and usually respond in hostile ways, ultimately manifesting in citizenship problems. The study shows, however, that what is needed is not conflict but cooperation – within and between states having fractions of a trans-border ethnic group, and within the international system, for the enhancement of national citizenship and development in West and Central Africa.     

THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF MILITARY BASE REALIGNMENTS AND CLOSURES IN GERMANY

We identify the causal effect of a reduction in military personnel on a number of socioeconomic indicators within the peripheries of military bases. The base realignments and closures in Germany are used as an exogenous source of variation that allows us to identify the effect of a demand shock on household income, output, unemployment, and tax revenue within a specified buffer zone around each base. The analysis covers 298 communities for the period 2003–2007. Consistent with evidence found elsewhere, we find that these base adjustments have only a marginal impact on the local community in which the bases are located.     

Whatever happened to South America's splendid little wars?

South America has gained international media attention due to its ongoing arms race, with politicians and analysts warning about the possibility of war. Nevertheless, since the Chaco War in the 1930s, the region has seldom faced major inter-state wars, all of which have been short-lived and with relatively few casualties. This article will discuss in greater detail the ongoing arms race in South America, portraying it as a race ‘of levels’, with not all countries carrying out massive weaponry purchases. Finally, I will discuss regional geopolitics, geosecurity and integration as part of an analysis regarding the unlikelihood of war.     

军事任务推演的时空模型与驱动机制

针对军事信息系统的作战任务推演需求,提出了一种基于时空事件序列的、较为完备的高效任务推演方法。论述了基于层次化分解的任务表达机制与实体化策略;针对保障数据定制问题提出了面向任务的时空数据应用模型,以任务最小需求为准则对一体化时空数据集进行多维筛选,有效降低数据的冗余度;详细讨论了时空事件序列模型的定义及其在军事任务推演中的数据驱动模式;结合具体仿真实例进行了应用探讨。原型系统的实现证明了该思路的有效性和可行性。     

基于灰色局势决策的通用维修资源整合方法

维修资源是装备保障系统的重要组成部分,针对部队装备维修资源品种越来越多、保障负担越来越重的问题,分析了通用维修资源的优点,提出了一种基于灰色局势决策理论的通用维修资源整合方法,并给出了具体实施步骤,主要包括构建决策目标体系、制定决策流程、计算综合测度和选择决策等,最后还进行了详细的案例研究.为维修资源的有效整合提供了决策依据和科学方法,对于减少维修资源种类、提高装备保障效率具有一定的指导作用和应用价值.     

指挥信息系统信息域一体化能力指标体系

一体化能力是指挥信息系统充分发挥作用的必要保证,也是满足信息化战争要求的有效途径.根据一体化联合作战对指挥信息系统的新需求,将指挥信息系统信息域一体化能力划分为全域获取、无缝传输、协同处理以及信息共享4种能力.采用指标分析法构建了系统信息域一体化能力的指标体系,并利用数学建模理论,对每个指标进行了定性或定量的研究.通过系统工程的相关理论和方法,提出了系统信息域一体化能力的评估流程.     

多源验前信息下基于证据理论的ML-Ⅱ融合方法

在复杂新型产品的可靠性评估中,试验的样本量通常较小,而Bayes方法在小样本统计推断中比经典统计方法更为适用.针对可靠性工程中遇到的验前信息的多源性问题,给出了一种基于证据理论的ML-Ⅱ融合方法.在融合过程中考虑了信息源的可信性,减小了可信度低的信息源对评估结果的影响.以电子产品为例,算例实验表明了该方法在有“干扰信息源”存在的情况下的评估结果的有效性和合理性.     

基于改进证据理论的多传感器目标识别

由于证据理论融合冲突信息会得出不合理的结论,限制了其在目标识别中的应用.为解决这一问题,提出了一种改进融合方法.研究各证据与其他证据的联系,通过计算证据与其他证据均值的距离,求出此证据受其他证据的支持度.归一化支持度获得证据权值,加权平均原有证据后按Dempster规则融合,作出识别.针对空中目标识别算例,对比验证几种方法,结果显示:该方法能够融合冲突信息,在降低计算量的同时,加快收敛速度,提高了识别快速性和准确性.